387. Houston, We Have a Slowdown: Loan Outcomes, CRE Reality, & Capital on the Move

This week, the data is sending mixed signals about the state of the economy. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down February retail sales coming in stronger than expected, suggesting the consumer was still holding up earlier in the year, even as more recent data points to some softening beneath the surface and rates remain volatile. We also take a step back to examine long-term cycles, using the Artemis II mission as a lens to compare today’s economy and built environment to 1972, the last time humans orbited the moon. In commercial real estate (CRE), we dive into what happens as loans reach maturity, tracking a cohort over time to understand how many pay off, refinance, extend, or fall into distress. We also cover the latest CMBS delinquency data, along with notable headlines including a record-breaking $327.50 per square foot office lease in NYC, BGO’s $350 million acquisition of Bell Partners, and CVS’s plans to open more stores than it closes in 2026.Episode notes: Economic Update: Retail Sales & Consumer Trends (0:28)Artemis II Mission: Economic Indicators Since 1972 Analysis (13:32)Loan Performance Data Analysis: Q1 2020 to Q1 2026 (24:56) Trepp’s March 2026 CMBS Delinquency Report (30:43)Office: Record-setting Office Lease in NYC & GSA (31:43)BGO’s Acquisition of Bell Partners (38:18)CVS's Expansion Plans in 2026 (42:08)Programming Notes (49:00)Shoutouts (50:30)Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected]. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWireLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp