39: The 2026 HVAC Outlook: What's Working, What's Dead, Where the Money's Moving

What this episode covers

In this episode of The Contractor Compass, Colton Bjornson is joined by Thomas Murphy and Broc Fletcher for a mid-year breakdown of what’s actually happening inside HVAC companies right now.Summer is heating up, lead volume is moving, and contractors are starting to see where their systems are strong — and where they’re leaking money.The guys talk through what’s working in HVAC lead generation right now, why more leads don’t automatically mean more sales, and how comfort advisors can hurt their own close rate by cutting corners when appointments start feeling easier.They also get into financing, average ticket sizes, tech turns, marketed install appointments, and why the companies that finish the year strong are usually the ones that maximize every call while demand is high.In this episode:• What Colton is seeing across Meta, PPC, LSA, and HVAC appointment costs• Why summer demand can make weak sales habits worse• The mistake comfort advisors make when they start rushing the process• Why smaller HVAC shops struggle to sell higher-end systems• How to use premium options without racing to the cheapest quote• The difference between tech-turn opportunities and marketed install leads• When repair calls make more sense than install appointments• Why financing has to be framed without making the customer feel broke• Thomas’ take on payment-focused selling and pricing around financing• What HVAC owners should focus on heading into the back half of 2026• Broc’s strategy for turning monthly payments into daily numbers• Why contractors shouldn’t put all their lead flow into one channelIf you own or operate an HVAC company, this episode gives a real look at the three areas that decide whether summer turns into profit or just more chaos: marketing, sales, and financing.

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