398: Modeling JAK2V617F Clonal Expansion in the General Population

Snyder J et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) - Longitudinal VAF measurements from 67 JAK2V617F-positive participants in the Danish GESUS study were analyzed with a Moran-process stem cell model and ABC-SMC to infer per-individual self-renewal advantages and assess prognostic value for MPN progression. Key terms: JAK2V617F, clonal hematopoiesis, Moran model, myeloproliferative neoplasms, mathematical modeling. Study Highlights:The study follows 67 individuals from the GESUS cohort with >1% JAK2V617F VAF and multiple follow-up measurements over >10 years. A Moran-process model at the HSC level fitted by ABC-SMC reproduced longitudinal VAF trajectories for 66 of 67 subjects and yielded per-individual estimates of the mutant self-renewal advantage s. Results show heterogeneity: ~70% of subjects had a statistically positive s, ~18% had a negative s, and ~12% were neutral, indicating many carriers show no expansion or even contraction. The fitted model can predict future VAF evolution for most subjects but s alone is not a perfect predictor of MPN diagnosis. Conclusion:A stem-cell Moran-process model explains longitudinal JAK2V617F VAF dynamics in most GESUS participants; inferred selective advantage varies widely, correlates with—but does not fully predict—MPN diagnosis, supporting individualized monitoring and further study of non-VAF risk factors. Music:Enjoy the music based on this article at the end of the episode. Article title:Mathematical modeling of JAK2V617F clonal expansion in a general population cohort First author:Snyder J Journal:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) DOI:10.1073/pnas.2507773123 Reference:Snyder J, Andersen M, Gudmand-Høyer J, et al. Mathematical modeling of JAK2V617F clonal expansion in a general population cohort. Proc Natl Acad Sci U.S.A. 2026;123:e2507773123. doi:10.1073/pnas.2507773123 License:This episode is based on an open-access article published under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0) – https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Support:Base by Base – Stripe donations: https://donate.stripe.com/7sY4gz71B2sN3RWac5gEg00 Official website https://basebybase.com On PaperCast Base by Base you'll discover the latest in genomics, functional genomics, structural genomics, and proteomics. Episode link: https://basebybase.com/episodes/base398-jak2v617f-moran QC:This episode was checked against the original article PDF and publication metadata for the episode release published on 2026-06-21. QC Scope:- article metadata and core scientific claims from the narration- excludes analogies, intro/outro, and music- transcript coverage: Substantively audited sections include background on JAK2V617F and MPN, Moran process model with carrying capacity and generation time, ABC-SMC inference of per-subject s, results breakdown (positive/neutral/negative s and 66/67 fit), link between s and MPN progression, inflammation/CRP and statin discussion, and limit- transcript topics: JAK2V617F mutation and myeloproliferative neoplasms biology; Moran process model and stem cell carrying capacity; Inference of per-individual selective advantage (s) via ABC-SMC; VAF trajectories across individuals and fit to the model; Association between s and progression to MPN; imperfect prediction; Inflammation (CRP) and statins as modifiers of clonal dynamics QC Summary:- factual score: 10/10- metadata score: 10/10- supported core claims: 8- claims flagged for review: 0- metadata checks passed: 4- metadata issues found: 0 Metadata Audited:- article_doi- article_title- article_journal- license Factual Items Audited:- 67 individuals with >1% JAK2V617F VAF in... Chapters (00:00:00) - Can Your Body Naturally Suppress a Cancer Mutation?(00:05:30) - The genetics of JAK2 cancer(00:10:47) - The Stochastic Selection of MPN(00:16:05) - JAK2 mutation and the immune system