[40] Data v Drama -- A View of Modern Recruiting w/ Stephen Ragsdale

X's and Joe's Episode 40: Data vs Drama - A View of Modern RecruitingBob Moats and Mike Wiemuth welcome special guest Stephen Ragsdale, creator of IURecruiting.com, for a deep dive into how data-driven analysis can cut through the emotional chaos of following college basketball recruiting.Meet Stephen Ragsdale and IURecruiting.com[00:00-17:00]Stephen introduces himself as a third-generation IU fan who turned his Excel spreadsheet tracking into a comprehensive recruiting website. His journey from casual follower to creator of IURecruiting.com stemmed from wanting better tools to understand the recruiting process. The conversation touches on early season optimism around IU basketball, with Trent Sisley's viral shot from above Five Guys on Kirkwood symbolizing a new era of offensive philosophy under Darren DeVries.The Recruiting Bingo Card[17:00-30:00]Mike unveils his famous "Recruiting Miss Bingo Card" - a collection of predictable fan responses that appear on message boards after every recruiting loss. Classics include "We don't want him anyway," "This just proves we don't cheat," and "I only want kids who want to play for IU." The group discusses how these responses transcend fanbases, with Stephen noting Purdue fans' fixation on the cheating angle and Notre Dame supporters emphasizing academic standards. The card highlights how fans often rationalize losses by suggesting the coach nearly made a catastrophic mistake, but thankfully the recruit had the sense to go elsewhere.The Recruiting Funnel Framework[30:00-45:00]Mike introduces the corporate HR recruiting funnel model adapted for college basketball. Using Kansas's 2019 recruitment of Jalen Wilson as a case study, he demonstrates how successful programs move from many offers (10) to fewer official visits (3) to one commitment. The concept of "traction" becomes crucial - can you get elite kids interested enough to visit? Stephen shares how this framework was eye-opening for him, shifting his perspective from Mike Woodson's "fall in love with one target" approach to understanding roster building as a numbers game requiring multiple irons in the fire.IURecruiting.com Deep Dive[45:00-75:00]Stephen walks through his website's functionality, showing how it tracks offers, visits, and commitments across multiple recruiting classes and positions. The tool includes funnel comparisons with Kentucky, Kansas, and Arkansas - three programs with distinctly different recruiting philosophies. Key insights emerge about IU's 2026 recruiting:• Strong conversion rates at center position (3 visits from 6 offers)• Limited point guard targeting mirroring industry-wide trends toward portal guards• Critical Anthony Thompson recruitment coming down to IU vs Ohio State• The site reveals patterns that individual recruit tracking missesThe discussion highlights how Bill Self casts the widest net with offers while someone like Coach K was more selective, and how understanding these different approaches helps contextualize IU's strategy.The Modern Recruiting Landscape[75:00-End]The group examines how recruiting has fundamentally changed with the portal era. Key observations:• Elite programs like Florida, Louisville, and Michigan now build rosters with 1-2 elite high school players and multiple high-end portal transfers• Point guard positions especially skew toward experienced portal additions rather than 18-year-old freshmen• International recruiting (IU's two Yugoslav players) represents another talent stream• The "win first, then recruit" fallacy gets debunked - you need elite talent to win, not vice versaMike provides critical context about the Moneyball aspect of NIL: five-star freshmen rarely saturate winning metrics like Box Plus Minus. Only four five-stars made the top 50 nationally in BPM last season (Cooper Flagg, Khaman Maluach, Kon Knueppel, and VJ Edgecombe). The sweet spot kids and elite transfers dominate those leaderboards, suggesting programs should be more strategic about where they invest NIL dollars.The episode concludes with cautious optimism about DeVries's early recruiting indicators and why the Anthony Thompson recruitment looms as a key test.On the mics: Bob Moats, Mike Wiemuth, and special guest Stephen RagsdaleSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.