40 Years of IPOs with Jay Ritter: What the Data Actually Says

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Jay Ritter. They break down what Apple, Nvidia, the dot-com boom, and today’s AI giants can teach us about IPOs, why companies leave money on the table on day one, why firms stay private longer, and what the data actually says about long-term IPO performance.—SPONSORS:Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at https://pulley.com/mostlymetricsRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjMaximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer posts 98% of transactions directly to its ERP, with the remaining 2% routed to a human for review. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at https://www.maximor.ai/Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered workflows that enforce expense policies at the point of sale, match receipts automatically, and reduce month-end close from weeks to hours. Thousands of companies, including Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash, already run on Brex. Stop asking A-level finance talent to do B-level admin work. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metricsAnrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at https://www.anrok.com/rtnRightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cjEY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNGuest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-ritter-1323861/Company: https://www.ufl.edu/CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Preview and Intro3:10 Meet Jay Ritter, Mr. IPO4:02 The Original 1983 Question5:08 PCs, Internet, and AI Compared9:36 Network Effects14:46 Sitzfleisch: Outlasting the Field16:10 Where Have All the IPOs Gone23:29 IPOs as Relationship-Building26:31 Why Investors Tolerate Founder Control29:16 Dual-Class Stock's Origins30:21 How Jay's Thinking Evolved31:36 Why Boards Don't Get Angry34:39 Banks' Real Client: Institutions37:08 Book Building38:56 Why Direct Listings Haven't Taken Over39:57 What Goldman Is Really Selling41:57 Sentiment vs. Long-Term Performance43:13 Does Staying Private Help Society49:35 Asking Better Questions with EY52:12 Are Markets Efficient