439: News of the Week 06/19/24

Commentary on Sunday Podcast – Mark Skousen from FreedomFest General Overview: Mark Skousen made various comments on different topics, some of which were agreeable, while others were debatable. Inflation: Agreed: Different people experience different levels of inflation depending on their basket of goods and services. Disagreed: Inflation is not at a 10% rate, even considering shadow inflation (reduction in quantity or quality of goods and services for the same price). Global Warming: Disagreed: Global warming is not a manufactured crisis; clear data supports that the earth is warming and the climate is changing. Notable Data: The 10 most recent years are the warmest in recorded history, with emerging implications (e.g., rising insurance rates in Florida). Electric Vehicles (EVs): Neutral: While there's a debate on whether government mandates on the auto industry for EV production are reasonable, the necessity of such mandates is questioned. Political Spending: Agreed: Both Trump and Biden are big spenders. Disagreed: Democrats are not trying to get away with it, as they have explicitly stated intentions to raise taxes. Opinion: Republicans, by wanting to spend more and tax less, could be seen as trying to get away with increased spending without corresponding revenue. Update on Economy and Markets May CPI: Released data showed a 3.3% price increase on an annual basis, flat compared to April. First flat month-over-month CPI since May 2020, before the Fed's rate hike cycle began. FOMC June Meeting: Rates left unchanged. Signal of likely only one rate cut in 2024, down from previously anticipated two cuts. Stock Market: Continued rally, reaching new highs. Treasury and Mortgage Rates: 10-year treasury decreased by 20 bps to 4.2%. 30-year fixed mortgage rate around 7%. Bitcoin: Down by about 4% from the previous week, exhibiting volatility over the past 2-3 weeks. What are Structured Notes? Definition: Hybrid securities combining a bond and a derivative component linked to an underlier (e.g., S&P 500 index, commodity) designed to target a predefined investment goal. Characteristics: Generally unsecured debt obligations of issuers like investment banks. Performance linked to the underlying asset. Tailored to express a specific market view or meet a particular investment objective. Potential to achieve yield, growth, or principal protection. Risks: Creditworthiness: Dependent on the issuer's creditworthiness. Performance: Target returns are not guaranteed if the underlying asset underperforms. Holding Period: Designed to be held to maturity. Complexity: Financial instruments are complex and hard to understand.