#44. Oil to $40? Spare Capacity, Demand & LNG Volatility

What Moves Oil: $40 or $60?On the Energy Espresso Podcast, host Jim Wicklund sits down with Jan Stuart, Global Energy Economist at Piper Sandler, to break down what could actually move oil prices.After talk of $40 oil, Stuart pushes back, arguing it would take a recession-level shock and missteps from OPEC+. Instead, he sees ~$60 with upside, pointing to tight spare capacity, steady demand, and low inventories, while also unpacking LNG volatility and a potential near-term glut.00:00 Welcome and Guest Intro00:45 Elevator Oil Trader Story01:37 Can Oil Hit 4002:04 Iran Risk and Spare Capacity02:55 Global Demand Growth Outlook04:05 Surplus Debate and NGLs04:20 OPEC Plus Adds Barrels Back05:44 Thin Spare Capacity Reality07:26 Just In Case Stockpiling08:30 Putting a Price Forecast10:25 Why Not 100 Dollar Oil11:19 Tier Two Tech Upside11:57 Oil Price Reality Check12:50 Global Supply Shifts13:15 Europe Net Zero Backlash14:37 LNG Export Boom Risks15:10 Early Signs Of Glut17:42 China Power Mix Reality19:11 Cheap Power Wins20:07 Clearing LNG With Price22:31 Tech Squeezes Margins23:45 Wrap Up And Thanks