461: Bitcoin and Central Bank Digital Currencies

In 2014, like most people, I was skeptical and largely uninformed about Bitcoin. At the time, it seemed like a quirky internet fad, reminiscent of the infamous Dutch tulip mania from the 17th century—something bound to disappear as quickly as it had come. Unfortunately, I was listening to the likes of Peter Schiff at the time who convinced me that bitcoin was just a speculative bubble, a digital Ponzi scheme waiting to implode. So, I didn't question it. I dismissed Bitcoin, just like most people did. By 2016, however, I decided to take a deeper dive. What I found captivated me. Bitcoin isn't just a speculative investment; it is a revolutionary form of money, designed to withstand the economic pressures that have eroded every fiat currency in history. In 2018 Saifedean Ammous published The Bitcoin Standard where he argued for the importance of sound money. History is littered with examples of societies that debased their currency and paid the price for it. From the fall of the Roman Empire to the collapse of the Weimar Republic, excessive money printing always leads to inflation, erosion of wealth, and ultimately, economic ruin. Bitcoin solves this problem with a hard cap of 21 million coins. It's decentralized and cannot be manipulated by governments or central banks. In a world where the Federal Reserve can print trillions of dollars overnight, Bitcoin's scarcity and resistance to inflation are revolutionary. Ammous makes it clear that Bitcoin, much like gold in centuries past, is a form of "hard money" that can store value over the long term, immune from the whims of political agendas. Unlike gold, though, Bitcoin is more efficient. It's easily divisible, transferable across borders, and secured by an immutable blockchain. No middlemen, no gatekeepers, just a decentralized network verifying and recording every transaction. This creates an incorruptible store of value, something that's sorely needed in today's financial system. Back in 2017, Bitcoin exploded from under $1,000 to nearly $20,000 in just 12 months. Some called it a bubble, but I saw it differently. The institutional adoption was beginning. Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin isn't just a fringe asset—it's gaining legitimacy among the world's biggest financial players. Names like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale have built massive infrastructure around Bitcoin. BlackRock, with nearly $10 trillion under management, launched a Bitcoin ETF. And when Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, begins referring to Bitcoin as "digital gold," you know the asset has reached a new level of mainstream credibility. It's a reflection of Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class. Even on the political front, Bitcoin is making waves. Figures like Donald Trump and Robert Kennedy Jr. have publicly stated their intent to hold Bitcoin as part of treasury reserves. At the same time, demand for Bitcoin is rising. Millennials and Gen Z increasingly see Bitcoin as a more reliable store of value than traditional investments like stocks or bonds. A recent survey found that nearly 50% of Millennials trust cryptocurrency more than they trust the stock market. As these generations accumulate more wealth, their preference for Bitcoin will only accelerate, driving demand higher. And with Bitcoin's supply fixed, the inevitable consequence is upward price pressure. When I first started seriously looking at Bitcoin in 2016, it was trading between $600 and $700. Today, Bitcoin hovers between $50,000 and $60,000. That's an astonishing 80x return. If someone had invested $100,000 in Bitcoin back then, they'd be sitting on $8 million today. These numbers aren't just hypothetical—they're a real testament to Bitcoin's growth and future potential. A common critique of Bitcoin is its volatility. There's no denying that Bitcoin has seen wild price swings, such as the rapid ascent to $69,000 in 2021 followed by a steep correction. But here's the crucial point: volatility is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, in Bitcoin's case, it's an opportunity. As Ammous explains in The Bitcoin Standard, volatility is an expected feature of any emerging asset class. Bitcoin is still in its price discovery phase. As adoption increases and market capitalization grows, the volatility will decrease, much like what we've seen with gold. Right now, Bitcoin's volatility provides an entry point for those looking to benefit from its long-term trajectory. In a few years, when Bitcoin reaches the market cap of gold—currently around $12 trillion—it will likely stabilize, and the wild price fluctuations we see today will diminish. So, while volatility may scare off some investors, for those who believe in Bitcoin's long-term potential, it's a gift. It creates buying opportunities in a market that is steadily trending upward over time. If I had to choose one asset to double in value over the next two to three years, it would undoubtedly be Bitcoin. It is arguably the hardest form of money humanity has ever seen, and as more people recognize this, demand will continue to rise. With a fixed supply, the laws of economics make it clear: Bitcoin's price must go up. So why am I talking about Bitcoin? Well, this week's podcast is about central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Without Bitcoin, there would be no talk of CBDC. The topic itself, however, is quite different as it relates not to the freedom offered by the Bitcoin concept but rather the potential issues around your privacy and the role of the banks. It's a fascinating conversation and I highly encourage you to check out the show. 11:49 Introduction to David Skeie and CBDCs 12:52 The Concept of CBDCs and the Digital Pound 15:54 The Purpose of CBDCs and the Concerns 21:38 The Technology and Implementation of CBDCs 23:52 Privacy Concerns with CBDCs 28:14 The Relationship Between CBDCs and Cryptocurrencies 31:59 The Role of Technology in CBDCs 34:07 The Interplay Between CBDCs and Bitcoin 38:04 The Future of CBDCs and Digital Currencies