#5 – The Media war(s) are all around us, but how much content is too much content?

We go in-depth on the ongoing media streaming wars touching upon Apple, Disney, Netflix, AT&T… and well, we spend a lot of time talking about Disney, our new Media overlord. We discuss whether we are at “Peak TV”, audio streaming and the Marvel Universe and how it changed the global movie landscape for all of us. Throughout this episode, we must warn our listeners that we will also share some strong opinions on specific movies and tv shows… don’t tell us we didn’t warn you! Navigation: Apple TV Plus: why it’s not about what you think it is (01:59) Are we at “Peak TV”? (09:34) AT&T’s new media strategy (16:10) Disney Plus: a new giant of streaming emerges? (21:40) How the Marvel Universe changed the movie arena (33:05) Peak TV and peak Media (41:40) Resources: Bloomberg, Apple TV+ launch - https://bloom.bg/3cZHQsU Hollywood Reporter, Apple TV+ shows getting 2nd season - http://bit.ly/3aZ0W0x Cult of Mac, Apple TV+ pulls in ‘millions of users’ in its first week - http://bit.ly/3b9uVTJ iMore, Apple TV+ analysis predicts initial demand falls behind Netflix's top offerings - http://bit.ly/3d1ds1c Ars Technica, As DirecTV tanks, AT&T says it will “re-bundle” TV with HBO Max - http://bit.ly/2U7oJVg App Annie, Mobile Minute: Disney+ Poised to Shake Up Mobile Streaming Market - http://bit.ly/3b2elVp Seattle Times, Disney Plus hits 10M subscribers in 1 day - http://bit.ly/2QcVjUz What is the Endgame for Disney+ - https://econ.st/2We6rnW Matthew Ball, Marveliad, Cinematic Universes Aren't New; They're the Oldest Stories on Earth - http://bit.ly/3b1piXE Matthew Ball, Disney, IP and returns to "Marginal Affinity" - http://bit.ly/2Wi96wH WSJ, Roku Getting Splashed by Streaming Wars - https://on.wsj.com/2WeOuFH Hollywood Reporter, Studio Chief Summit: All 7 Top Film Executives, One Room, Nothing Off-Limits (and No Easy Answers) - http://bit.ly/3dbG5Jo Hollywood Reporter, Liberty Media CEO Forecasts "Circular Firing Squad" for Hollywood's Streaming Wars - http://bit.ly/3d3j7Ec Matthew Ball, The Mining of Media (or The "Streaming Wars" are Just a Battle) - http://bit.ly/2UdnYtE WSJ, Expect Fewer Big Media Deals Next Decade - https://on.wsj.com/2Qi9lEp Bloomberg, TV Industry Suffers Steepest Drop in Ad Sales Since Recession - https://bloom.bg/2QkucXL Our co-hosts: Bertrand Schmitt, Tech Entrepreneur, co-founder and Chairman at App Annie, @bschmitt Nuno Goncalves Pedro, Investor, co-Founder and Managing Partner of Strive Capital, @ngpedro  Our show:   Tech DECIPHERED brings you the Entrepreneur and Investor views on Big Tech, VC and Start-up news, opinion pieces and research. We decipher their meaning, and add inside knowledge and context. Being nerds, we also discuss the latest gadgets and pop culture news.   Subscribe To Our Podcast Full transcription: may contain unintentionally confusing, inaccurate and/or amusing transcription errors Nuno: Welcome to episode 5.  Today we'll spend most of our time talking about media: the launch of Apple TV, Disney Plus, and a few other in-depth articles that we've had a chance to take a look at  Bertrand: Hello Nuno, how are you? Nuno: I'm well, how about you Bertrand? Bertrand: I'm doing good, thank you. I'm pretty excited to talk about the media space today. A lot of action in that space in the few months, so glad we find the time to talk about what's happening and what is all this media streaming war all about.  Apple TV Plus: why it's not about what you think it is (01:59) Nuno: So let's start with Apple TV.  So, Apple TV Plus launched November 1st, we have a bunch of articles that we've been talking about for the last few weeks around and interesting. So what are your thoughts early on, on Apple TV Plus?  Bertrand: If you look at Apple TV Plus alone by itself it's not a very interesting service  would be my take, in the sense that what's coming and what's unique from this service in term of unique shows you cannot get anywhere else, right now you just have a few of them, and at least from my perspective as a consumer, I have not been keen to see any of their shows.  I tried actually, I tried, it was kind of disappointing: what you can see is that a lot of money has been spent on any one of them, that's for sure, it's extremely polished, extremely polished, but for me the story is not there, it's disapointing in term of story basically on all these shows.  But when you look at the bigger picture of what they're trying to achieve it's probably better . The bigger picture is a few things, at least from my perspective: these  new shows are more a magnet to bring you to Apple TV Plus in general, to the overall Apple ecosystem. And why would they want to do that? On Apple TV Plus you can get access to other TV channels, so it's not just Apple content you get , it's other TV content you can get access to: from HBO to a lot of others who you can pick. And they are, as usual, getting some significant margins playing with that.  Nuno: It's interesting because in some ways it seems like they are seeding what I would call a meta-play, right? They are trying to serve all the different experiences that you have with different streaming services onto one banner which is Apple TV, and the way for them to seed this, is to do Apple TV Plus, have all these different shows that are originals, and push people into it, so that people start consuming more and more. It's a really interesting thing because if we're right about this, what Apple is doing is they're seeding a service that in effect, just wants to aggregate your user experience at the end of the day by just creating some content. So our view is that Apple, to be clear, doesn't want to be a content owner,  they don't want to be Netflix.  Bertrand: Yes, I think that's really the take here, is that there is some bigger strategic reason at play, and we talk about now aggregating these different services, and by the way this is very very similar to how Prime is working. Amazon Video, part of the prime service: it's the same playbook. They make a few shows, they make a few movies, but at the end of the day it's a magnet, so is that you use Prime as your destination to subscribe to other TV channels. Surprisingly enough very similar business model on that part, where they are trying to attract you so they become the main place where you will find and play your shows, your movies, but ultimately and we'll talk more about that, at a service of a bigger business model which in the case of Apple is to sell devices, in the case of Amazon is to sell you everything.  Nuno: Yes, but with Amazon Prime there are still some significant differences. They are not making the user experience totally seamless for you to see Hulu and other types of services that you might have. And they are building their content inventory, right?  They've been winning a lot of awards, they actually have great shows. I've been part of all their pilots seasons and voting, and their first pilot season was a little bit iffy, but they've been really doing well and they have great shows with actually pretty impressive ratings, and as I said they've won awards. So I buy the whole generation of traffic piece that Prime is doing, that Apple is doing with the TV Plus, but I think the TV Plus play might be actually very different in the sense that it will aggregate other streaming services under one banner, whereas with Amazon that's not really the play. I think with Amazon they do want to pull you into their ecosystem and into the whole Prime ecosystem overall. So I do think they'll continue developing content, and they'll continue wanting to own your time with them, in effect.  Bertrand: Yes but again, interestingly enough Amazon really pioneered this model to attract to that center location of looking for TV shows, movies, and letting you very easily subscribe to 3rd parties TV channels, basically that's what it is. So in a way Apple TV has copied part of the approach of Amazon. I was myself surprised.  Nuno: But it feels, Bertrand, it feels more, the Prime play I know it's a broader play within sort of the realm and the world of Amazon, but it does seem to me that what Amazon is doing with Prime TV and Video is closer to Netflix than what Apple TV Plus is doing right now, and we'll see where Apple TV Plus goes. They have plenty of cash to just go and develop content. So it's not like they can't develop content, It just seems as you said earlier on, that they are anchoring around this sort of unified user experience with all your streaming services, which makes sense because that's how Apple TV started in the first place, as a software service.  Bertrand: Yes and obviously interestingly enough you cannot browse from Apple TV, Netflix. So Netflix is not opening its content to Apple TV, or to any other service by the way. So Netflix is pushing you to go to Netflix and then you discover content and obviously only Netflix content.  When the other providers from Roku, to Apple, to Prime, absolutely tried to get every other service available from outside, and be visible from their own system.  But as you say, I'm expecting that, over time, Apple's offering will improve, will expand, but will it go really big beyond just being a "Magnet" it's not clear. Another interesting point is right now you get it for free in many cases: basically if you buy an iPhone or an iPad or a Mac or an Apple TV, you get a one year free.  So I also think there is some realism on Apple side that the offer by itself, it's not truly standing on its own: a few TV shows with no back catalog for $5 a month, and we will talk later about the Disney offering for instance at $6/month basically it would be a pretty bad deal to pay for Apple TV Plus subscription right now.  Nuno: So a couple of interesting things.  One, we were talking about the quality, or you were talking about the quality of the Apple TV Plus shows, I guess we're talking about SEE, For all mankind,...