5: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act Kicks the Fiscal Can Down the Road

Last month, President Donald Trump’s massive tax bill passed the Republican-led House in a 215-214 vote. The White House has said the bill won’t add to the federal deficit, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill would add to the debt by approximately $2.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034. Who’s right? John Diamond reviews the numbers and explains why the tax bill, as written, can’t increase growth enough to offset its trillions in revenue declines, plus why ongoing uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariff policy will only further reduce economic growth. Mentioned in this episode: Congressional Budget Office, Estimated Budgetary Effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61461 White House Council of Economic Advisers, Preserving and Expanding Low Tax Rates to Create American Economic Prosperity, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Preserving-and-Expanding-Low-Tax-Rates-to-Create-American-Economic-Prosperity.pdf Tax Foundation, “Big Beautiful Bill” House GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis, https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/big-beautiful-bill-house-gop-tax-plan/ This conversation was recorded on June 3, 2025. A transcript is available here: https://bit.ly/4kq8QnD Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.