5 Years Later, 3,700 Vintage Condos Dot Skyline Of Bal Harbour, Surfside, Bay Harbor Islands

In this episode of Condo Capitalism™, Peter Zalewski reflects on the state of the barrier island condo market as South Florida marks the Champlain Towers South collapse on June 24, 2021.Condo Capitalism™ is a weekly podcast hosted by Peter Zalewski of the Miami Condo Investing Club™ that provides data-driven analysis on distressed real estate—foreclosures, shortsales and bank-owned REOs—in the tricounty South Florida region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.The program tracks the Florida Condo Association Financial Cliff, where rising maintenance fees, special assessments and insurance costs are squeezing cash-strapped owners.On the show, experts analyze how the national “two-sided risk”—rising inflation and falling employment—magnifies these local pressures, potentially forcing a capitulation by owners who can no longer afford condo living.Join Peter Zalewski at MiamiCondo.Club for a livestream every weekday at 4 pm (Miami time). On-demand recordings of all shows are available here.Episode OverviewIn the June 18, 2026, episode of the Condo Capitalism™ podcast, host Peter Zalewski drills down into ZIP code 33154—covering Bal Harbour, Surfside and Bay Harbor Islands—to examine the Modern vs. Vintage condo split on the barrier island of Miami-Dade County.The episode arrives on the eve of the five-year anniversary of the Surfside tragedy on June 24, 2021, when nearly 100 people died and a $1 billion settlement was paid to the families of the victims.Vintage condos—defined as at least 30 years old—are at the center of the post-Surfside scrutiny.Using state records compiled by the Condo Ratings Agency™, Zalewski determined that the nearly 7,400 condo units located in 138 associations in 33154 are split almost evenly between Modern units at 50.1% and Vintage units at 49.9%.The Florida Legislature's post-Surfside reforms are now forcing cash-strapped unit owners to contend with rising maintenance fees, hefty special assessments and pricey insurance premiums, a dynamic known as the Florida Condo Association Financial Cliff.The pressure is showing up in the Overall resale market where nearly 390 condos are listed in 33154 at an average asking price of $3.6 million with more than 15 months of supply. The Miami Condo Supply Tracker™ classifies this level of supply as a Deteriorating Buyers Market.Nearly 160 Vintage condos are listed at an average asking price of $1.2 million per unit with about 10 months of supply for a Buyers Market.Zalewski applies the 1% Rule of real estate investing to the ZIP code’s rental market to assess whether asking prices for both Overall and Vintage condos can be justified by underlying fundamentals, and makes the case that the window for data-driven buyers willing to do their homework is open.The Condo Ratings Agency™ is designed to give those buyers the tools to act on that window when it launches in November 2026 to coincide with the start of the 2026-27 Winter Buying Season.The Agency is tracking nearly 13,000 condo associations and about 760,000 units across the tricounty South Florida region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties using state records to evaluate the financial feasibility, stability and viability of individual condo associations.Click play above to watch Zalewski’s analysis, and use the timestamped timeline and the Top 10 Takeaways below to navigate the program on demand.