514: Currency Wars, Capital Flows, and Bitcoin

I know some of you are tired of hearing about Bitcoin and digital currencies. That's not what this week's show is about. This week's podcast conversation is broader—it touches the entire global economy. But…you just can't talk about macroeconomic trends anymore without talking about digital dollars and Bitcoin. Leaving them out today would be like ignoring gold when discussing commodities. There's a section this week in my interview with Ian Reynolds that dives deep into the bond market and the growing influence of stablecoins. And I realized—it might be helpful to give you a bit of context up front. If you're already familiar, consider this a refresher. If not, this will make the second half of our conversation a lot more useful. Let's start with the 10-year U.S. Treasury—arguably the most important interest rate in the world. This one number influences everything from mortgage rates to stock valuations to how much it costs the government to borrow money. Historically, when inflation drops, yields on the 10-year tend to fall as well. That's the standard relationship: lower inflation usually leads to lower yields. But that's not what's happening right now. Despite a year of cooling inflation, the 10-year Treasury yield has stayed surprisingly high. Why? The answer boils down to supply and demand. On the supply side, the U.S. government is flooding the market with Treasuries—over a trillion dollars' worth every quarter—to finance its growing deficits. That's a lot of new bonds entering the market. At the same time, demand isn't keeping up. Foreign central banks like China and Japan, which used to be some of the biggest buyers of our debt, are pulling back. Some are dealing with their own domestic issues. Others are deliberately reducing their exposure to the dollar as a reaction to U.S. foreign policy over the past year. So: more supply, less demand—what happens? Bond prices go down, resulting in higher yields for bond investors. That, in turn, means higher borrowing costs for everyone—including the U.S. government, businesses, and consumers. That's why, even with inflation falling, the 10-year hasn't followed the script. But here's where things get interesting. A new kind of buyer has started stepping in: stablecoin issuers. Stablecoins—like USDC and Tether—are digital tokens pegged to the U.S. dollar. They've become essential plumbing for the crypto economy, but their growth is increasingly relevant to the broader financial system. Why? Because in order to maintain their dollar peg, these companies need to back their coins with something stable—and that "something" is often short-term U.S. Treasuries. It turns out, that's a great business to be in. These stablecoin issuers collect real dollars, turn around, and invest them in T-bills yielding 5% or more. That spread—between what they earn and what they pay out—is pure profit. It's essentially a 21st-century version of a money market fund, just running on blockchain. And it's growing fast. Tether now holds more Treasuries than countries like Australia or Mexico. BlackRock has launched a tokenized Treasury fund that already has nearly $3 billion under management. And just this week, Mastercard announced that it's integrating USDC and other stablecoins for cross-border settlement. In other words, this isn't fringe anymore. It's moved into the mainstream, and it's growing quickly. Even lawmakers are catching up. Just this month, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan bill that sets clear regulatory guidelines for stablecoins. It requires full backing by liquid assets—like Treasuries—and regular public disclosures. It's now headed to the House, and while not law yet, the momentum is clearly there. The takeaway? Regulatory clarity is coming, and that opens the door for large institutions, payment processors, and even governments to scale up stablecoin usage with confidence. So why does this matter for bond yields? Because if this growth continues—and all signs suggest it will—stablecoin issuers could become a major new class of permanent Treasury buyers. That consistent demand could help reduce or at least stabilize borrowing costs for the U.S. government over time, especially at the short end of the yield curve. It's not a magic fix, but it's one of the few credible tailwinds for demand in an otherwise stretched bond market. And it's coming from a place most economists didn't expect: crypto. So with that context, let's jump into the conversation with Ian Reynolds. On this week's episode of Wealth Formula Podcast, we talk about macro trends, currencies, Bitcoin, and yes—the bond market. But now you'll see how it all fits together.