558: Bitcoin's Rise as Collateral in Traditional Finance

I continue to be surprised by how many sophisticated investors still dismiss Bitcoin as purely speculative. At this point, whether you personally like Bitcoin or not is almost beside the point. The more important question is this: What happens to the price of an asset with a permanently fixed supply when institutional adoption accelerates globally? Because that is exactly what is happening right now. Let's start with the simple math. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. Exactly 21 million. And several million are believed to be permanently lost forever. Meanwhile, demand continues to expand at a remarkable pace. According to recent estimates, there are now roughly 559 million crypto users globally, approaching 10% of the world population. Institutional adoption is accelerating even faster. As of this year, spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated roughly $100 billion in assets under management in an extraordinarily short period of time. And remember—these ETFs only launched in early 2024. BlackRock alone has become one of the largest holders of Bitcoin in the world through its ETF products. That's BlackRock. The same firm that manages roughly $10 trillion in assets globally. Larry Fink, who once openly criticized Bitcoin, now refers to it as a legitimate alternative asset class and even a potential hedge against currency debasement. This is not fringe finance anymore. And here is where the supply-demand imbalance becomes fascinating. After the most recent Bitcoin halving, annual new Bitcoin issuance dropped to approximately 164,000 BTC per year. Yet estimates suggest corporations and institutions alone now hold well over 1 million Bitcoin combined. In other words, institutional demand is already consuming supply at a pace that dramatically exceeds new issuance. That matters. A lot.Now think about Bitcoin in the context of global wealth. Gold currently has an approximate market capitalization around $20 trillion. Bitcoin fluctuates closer to roughly $1.5 trillion. So if Bitcoin merely achieved parity with gold as a store-of-value asset, you are talking about a potential order-of-magnitude increase from current levels. And some very serious people are beginning to think even that may underestimate the opportunity. Larry Fink recently suggested that if sovereign wealth funds globally decided to allocate just 2–5% into Bitcoin, prices could theoretically move into the several hundred thousand dollar range per coin. Again, you don't have to agree. But ignore this at your own peril. Because Bitcoin is no longer sitting outside the financial system looking in. It is slowly becoming integrated into the plumbing of the system itself. That integration is where things start getting really interesting. Historically, assets become truly institutional once they can be borrowed against, lent against, securitized, collateralized, and incorporated into traditional underwriting systems. That is exactly what is beginning to happen with Bitcoin right now. And this week's episode of Wealth Formula Podcast is a very tangible example of that transition already underway. I interviewed Josip Rupena, founder of Milo. What Milo is doing is genuinely fascinating. They are building crypto-backed mortgages that allow investors to purchase homes without selling their Bitcoin holdings. Think about the implications of that for a moment. Traditionally, if someone wanted to buy real estate using appreciated Bitcoin, they had to sell the asset, trigger taxes, lose future upside exposure, and convert back into the traditional banking system. Milo's model changes that dynamic. Instead of forcing liquidation, Bitcoin itself can function as part of the collateral structure. That is a major conceptual shift. And whether you are bullish on Bitcoin or not, I think it represents an important glimpse into where finance may be heading.