568: When Great Markets Go on Sale

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is assuming that today's conditions will last forever. When the stock market is soaring, they assume it will continue indefinitely. When it's crashing, they assume the pain has only just begun. Real estate investors aren't any different. Today, there are plenty of headlines about falling apartment values, weak rent growth, and rising vacancies. Many investors have concluded that multifamily has lost its appeal. But that conclusion misses a critical point. The very markets experiencing the greatest short-term growing pains are often the same markets with the strongest long-term fundamentals. How can that be? Over the past several years, developers rushed to build apartments in places where people were moving in droves—Texas, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and parts of the Midwest. Developers followed demand, and for a while, it worked beautifully. Then interest rates surged. Projects that had already broken ground continued to come online, creating a temporary oversupply. Vacancies rose, rent growth slowed, and property values in many markets fell 30–40% from their peaks. That's the part everyone talks about. What receives much less attention is that the people never stopped coming. Families continue relocating. Employers continue expanding. Population growth remains strong. The long-term demand for housing in many of these markets hasn't disappeared at all. At the same time, higher construction costs and expensive financing have dramatically reduced new apartment development. In other words, the pipeline of future supply is slowing just as long-term demand continues to grow. History has a way of reminding us that the best investments are often made when short-term conditions temporarily obscure long-term fundamentals. This week's Wealth Formula Podcast explores exactly that idea. I sat down with commercial real estate expert Garrick Brown to discuss where we are in the current commercial real estate cycle, why broad statements about "the real estate market" no longer make much sense, and where he believes investors should be looking over the next 12 to 24 months. Among the topics we discuss: • Why multifamily may be becoming attractive again despite recent price declines. • Why retail has quietly become one of commercial real estate's strongest-performing sectors. • Which types of net lease properties he likes—and which ones he avoids. • How migration patterns continue to shape investment opportunities across the country. • The long-term impact of interest rates, AI, and demographic trends on commercial real estate. If you invest in real estate—or simply want to better understand where opportunities may be emerging beneath today's headlines—I think you'll enjoy this conversation.