571: The Great Real Estate Reset Is Happening—But in Slow Motion w/ Peter Muoio

For the last three years, commercial real estate investors have been waiting for a dramatic reset. The expectation was straightforward: higher interest rates, a wall of maturing loans, and distressed sellers would eventually force prices sharply lower, with the correction happening all at once. Instead, the great real estate reset is happening—but it's happening in slow motion. Today, we're seeing selective opportunities where quality multifamily assets can trade at discounts of 30–40% from prices just a few years ago. Naturally, many investors wonder if they should keep waiting for even better deals. But how much better could they actually get? One of the most interesting insights from this week's guest is that today's transactions don't necessarily represent a market that is still falling—they represent a market that simply isn't functioning normally. Most of the deals getting done involve either distressed sellers who have no choice or trophy assets that always command a premium. The vast middle of the market remains frozen as buyers and sellers continue to disagree on value. In other words, these distressed trades may not be evidence that everything gets cheaper from here. Instead, they may represent some of the best opportunities created during this slow-moving reset. This week's guest is Peter Muoio, one of the country's leading commercial real estate economists, and he helps us take a deeper dive into what's really happening. We discuss why today's environment is fundamentally different from 2008, why the so-called "wall of maturities" has become a slowly rolling wave instead, what finally ends the price discovery process, and why uncertainty—not a lack of capital—has become the biggest obstacle to a full market recovery. We also discuss why multifamily fundamentals may improve as new supply fades, why institutional capital is waiting patiently on the sidelines, and why some of the most overlooked opportunities may emerge from sectors investors have largely abandoned. If you've been wondering whether commercial real estate has already reset—or whether the best opportunities still lie ahead—I think you'll find this conversation both practical and thought-provoking. Learn more about Situs AMC: https://www.situsamc.com/ Sign up for Wealth Formula Investor Club: https://wealthformula.com/