#58 - Jared Dillian, founder of Armington Capital,  on Risk, Sentiment, and Why Courage Matters When Markets Feel Easy (recorded 01/28/26)

In this episode of The Bull of Wall Street, Talley Léger welcomes a longtime colleague and market veteran, Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirt Nap, founder of Armington Capital, and an author of seven books. Jared and Talley reconnect through shared Lehman-era market scars and use that lens to talk about what investors consistently miss before major dislocations—leverage, liquidity, and confidence, and why those risks may be building quietly in private credit and private equity today. From there, the conversation shifts into the advisor playbook: how to think about risk management when markets are calm, why the Fed follows the “path of least embarrassment,” how advisors can use sentiment without becoming day traders, and why diversification across asset classes is still the most underutilized edge in wealth management. What you’ll learn• The warning signs investors tend to miss before major crises—and why leverage is the real accelerant• Why Jared’s top concern isn’t mega-cap concentration, it’s private markets leverage• How to approach risk management when markets are calm: “buy protection when you can, not when you have to”• The Fed’s true incentive structure, and why it’s often behind the curve• How advisors can use sentiment and positioning without turning into short-term traders• Why US-only “diversification” isn’t diversification—and how to build a real multi-asset portfolio• The behavioral mistake that shows up in every bull market: chasing what just worked• Why the best advisors need courage to do something different (even when it’s unpopular)  Chapters 01:10 – Dirtcon vs. DJ’ing Omnia: which was better (and why)03:05 – Jared’s subscriber base and what Dirtcon has become03:45 – Lessons from Lehman and market crises: what people always miss06:45 – Concentration risk vs. real systemic risk08:10 – What drives crises: leverage, liquidity, and confidence09:10 – Jared’s portfolio positioning: international, EM, commodities11:40 – Where leverage is building now: private credit / private equity13:20 – Markets at all-time highs: risk management when things feel easy14:00 – “Buy protection when you can, not when you have to” (pandemic puts story)15:20 – The biggest misconception about the Fed16:00 – “The Fed follows the path of least embarrassment”18:20 – 2022: when 60/40 broke and there was nowhere to hide19:00 – Is the Fed data dependent or political?21:15 – Does monetary policy still have signal?23:00 – How advisors can use sentiment without becoming day traders24:10 – Jared’s Edward Jones story: advisors chasing fear and greed28:00 – Bull markets: chasing, unrealistic expectations, and mean reversion risk30:20 – Valuations: useful long-term, not a short-term timing tool31:55 – Why US-only portfolios are dangerously narrow33:45 – Fear vs. greed: what’s most dangerous now37:10 – Forecasting vs. diversification (and Jared’s new book)40:20 – Jared’s 7th book: The Awesome Portfolio41:00 – Market narratives: analysis vs. storytelling (what actually sells)47:50 – Smart brevity and cutting through research noise49:50 – Closing advice: courage, “do no harm,” and protecting client wealth52:10 – Where to follow Jared + subscriber discount  GuestJared Dillian, Editor, The Daily Dirt Nap, Founder & Principal, Armington CapitalAuthor (7 books), including upcoming The Awesome Portfolio  HostTalley Léger, Chief Market Strategist, WCG  Follow usLinkedIn: The Wealth Consulting GroupX (Twitter): @WealthCGYouTube: @thewealthconsultinggroup  Making Life Better at The Wealth Consulting Group If you’re ready to see how WCG helps advisors grow, subscribe for insights, updates, and resources built to make your practice, and your life, better.Subscribe at bit.ly/wealthcg