#59 The "Permabear" - Jeremy Grantham on why he expects a market crash, navigating bubbles and giving away $1bn

Jeremy Grantham is known as a permabear and an expert on bubbles so you should not be surprised that he sees an AI-induced bubble today and thinks the market will fall by 50%. He points out that at peaks you always have high multiples applied to abnormally high profit margins and today is no different. We discuss his experiences at GMO, where they didn’t have a sales person for their first 22 years, how his refusal to participate in the dot.com bubble cost him half his clients and none of them came back when he was proved right, how he recruited some of the best minds in finance, and why timing the market can deliver outsize returns.Grantham is no longer managing portfolios, instead devoting his considerable energies to philanthropy. We discuss his foundation’s efforts to combat climate change, to resource depletion, and to toxicity which is affecting fertility – he highlights how population will be in decline unless this is addressed. https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcast Jeremy Grantham is known as a permabear and an expert on bubbles so you should not be surprised that he sees an AI-induced bubble today and thinks the market will fall by 50%. He points out that at peaks you always have high multiples applied to abnormally high profit margins and today is no different. We discuss his experiences at GMO, where they didn’t have a sales person for their first 22 years, how his refusal to participate in the dot.com bubble cost him half his clients and none of them came back when he was proved right, how he recruited some of the best minds in finance, and why timing the market can deliver outsize returns.  Grantham is no longer managing portfolios, instead devoting his considerable energies to philanthropy. We discuss his foundation’s efforts to combat climate change, to resource depletion, and to toxicity which is affecting fertility – he highlights how population will be in decline unless this is addressed.  https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcast