5FF Short Cut: Housing market approaches peak pain as deal times reach a record

Deal times have hit a record: PropertyMark's latest survey has more than half of estate agents reporting deals taking over 17 weeks from agreed offer to exchange. That's the first time since they started measuring in 2015, and it backs up the warning that every force acting on the market this year would make moving harder. Fact one: Labour is considering lowering the mansion tax threshold from £2 million to £1.5 million. The £2m threat alone has already caused a cliff-edge drop in sales above the line and a bunching just below it, which distorts pricing all the way down the chain. A flat proportional property tax that replaced stamp duty would do far less damage. Fact two: Rightmove shows first-time buyer asking prices falling both month on month and year on year, national asking prices down about 1.8% year on year (a leading indicator), and buyer enquiries down 9%. That's good news for first-time buyers, who get more choice and less competition, but rising mortgage rates and youth unemployment are hitting that cohort hardest. Fact three: government borrowing is only down year to date because tax receipts are up, and spending is £7 billion over the OBR forecast. The gilt market punishes that with higher yields, which feed into higher mortgage rates, smaller buyer budgets and slower transactions. Fact four: PropertyMark reports transaction times at a record high. The root causes are agents overvaluing homes to win instructions, a proptech industry built to support that overvaluing, and poor conveyancing, and nothing in the government's plans tackles any of them. Fact five: BestAgent now lists more homes for sale in England and Wales than Rightmove, because Rightmove only carries agents who pay its subscription. Watch the full livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChY2hHhzgnM Support the show Follow me on X for daily updates: https://x.com/moving_charlie 🎥 Charlie's Golden rules videos for Buyers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6T-uZ28a80 Sellers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9oR28aWLOs Offering: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZaDs7uZ5Hw 🎥 Playlist of FTB advice - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLKomt2RI3JYnJ3imNEWjKGkszf_bzqDfe 📧 E-mail template for cash offers - https://mhwc.co.uk/email-templates/suggested-email-offer-template-for-cash-buyers/ 📧 E-mail template for FTB mortgaged offers - https://mhwc.co.uk/suggested-email-template-for-first-time-buyers-making-an-offer-with-a-mortgage/ 💰Speak to Charlie’s recommended mortgage brokers - https://mhwc.co.uk/mortgage/ 🧑‍⚖️ Get a quote from Charlie’s recommended conveyancers - https://mhwc.co.uk/conveyancing/ ...