60-20-20 Changed Everything | Tony Greer on the New Portfolio Regime

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with TG Macro founder Tony Greer to explore why markets are increasingly signaling a loss of faith in institutions and what that means for investors heading into 2026. Tony lays out a framework that connects inflation, central bank credibility, political risk, global regime change, and shifting consumer behavior into a coherent macro narrative. From gold and precious metals to miners, commodities, cyclicals, and the evolving role of AI, this conversation bridges big-picture macro themes with actionable market insights for both traders and long-term investors.Topics covered:• Why gold is rallying as trust in institutions erodes• Central banks, inflation, and the long-term consequences of monetary policy• The shift from a 60-40 portfolio to alternatives and real assets• Precious metals versus technology leadership in a changing market regime• Gold miners, industrial miners, and uranium as core themes• Consumer inflation, food prices, and purchasing power on Main Street• Big Food, Big Pharma, and the broader trust breakdown• Legal, political, and geopolitical risks shaping investor behavior• The end of globalization and the rise of domestic supply chains• Copper, energy, and natural resources in an economic recovery• AI, semiconductors, and signs of a leadership transition• Prediction markets and new tools for understanding market expectations• Financials, airlines, and overlooked cyclical opportunities• How to think about risk management when macro regimes changeTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and the collapse of trust in institutions02:00 Why gold is responding to credibility loss, not fear05:00 Central banks, inflation, and monetary excess08:20 Purchasing power and real-world inflation pressures11:00 Big Food, Big Pharma, and consumer awareness14:00 Healthcare, fraud, and institutional breakdown16:30 Legal system risk and political credibility18:30 Global factors, sanctions, and the shift away from globalization21:00 Precious metals, miners, and natural resource leadership25:00 The three mining themes driving performance29:00 Stocks and gold rising together in a new regime32:00 Gold market structure and long-term trend analysis36:00 Japan, global bond markets, and gold demand39:00 Investing versus trading precious metals43:00 Copper, supply chains, and tech partnerships47:00 AI leadership, capital rotation, and market risk51:00 Financials, airlines, and cyclical signals57:30 What would break the thesis and risk management signals