#604: A Private Lender's Honest Take on Fix and Flips, DSCR Loans, and Denver Prices

Denver fix and flip margins are shrinking, condo inventory just hit 11 months, and some DSCR lenders are approving loans at 0.75 debt service coverage. That’s not a typo. For anyone trying to get a clear Colorado real estate outlook for 2026, the signals are mixed — and most of them you won’t find in the MLS. To help make sense of it all, Chris Lopez sits down with Kevin Amolsch, founder of Pine Financial, a Colorado private lender that has originated over $1 billion in loans across 2,800 transactions since 2008. Beyond lending, Kevin is actively buying commercial buildings, demising flex warehouse space in Broomfield, and stripping cellular tower leases off office properties the way some investors strip mineral rights. As a result, he has a front-row seat to what’s actually working — and what’s quietly blowing up. In this episode, Kevin shares what Pine’s current deal flow reveals about the Colorado real estate outlook for 2026 and why he’s moved away from residential toward commercial assets. He and Chris also have a candid back-and-forth on the Denver price forecast — Kevin expecting flat, Chris leaning slightly negative. From there, they dig into why the condo and attached product market may be the riskiest place to be right now. In This Episode We Cover: Why Kevin sees fix and flip margins compressing — and what experienced flippers are doing about it The DSCR loan warning every Colorado investor needs to hear before refinancing a BRRRR Kevin’s honest breakdown of Denver’s 2026 price outlook: detached, attached, and multifamily How Kevin is stripping cellular leases off his office building like mineral rights — and what they sell for Why ground-up townhome development is struggling and what the 11-month condo inventory actually means The 10-year treasury vs. risk spread explained clearly, and what Trump’s MBS buying could actually do Why Kevin is price-checking his subs and vendors right now — and why you probably should be too If you’re trying to get a clear Colorado real estate market outlook for 2026 — and figure out what moves actually make sense right now — this is the episode to listen to. Watch the YouTube Video https://youtu.be/rWL6gxboybg Timestamps 00:00 – Welcome & Kevin Amolsch Introduction – Pine Financial founder returns  01:20 – Pine Financial Overview – $1B+ in originations, 2,800 transactions, $250M under management  03:20 – New Office Building in Littleton – Bought 24,000 sq ft Wells Fargo building at 7 cap  05:59 – Cellular Lease Strategy – Stripping tower leases like mineral rights, sells at 3.5–4.5 cap  07:33– Office Rehab Lessons – Why Office-to-Apartment Conversions Are So Hard  10:33 – Broomfield Flex Warehouse Deal – 18,000 sq ft, 4 small-bay suites, recovering a troubled partnership  12:27– Fix and Flip Market Right Now – 10% discounts on wholesale deals, six-figure rehab budgets  15:40 – Flipper Margins Shrinking – Why experienced investors won’t touch a deal under $100K net  19:24– Denver Price Forecast for 2026 – Kevin: flat on detached. Chris: slightly negative (1–3%)  21:49 Condo Market Warning – 11 months of inventory, why Kevin calls it riskiest asset class right now  22:42– Multifamily Supply Glut and When It Burns Off – Vacancy near 10%, stabilization likely 2027  25:53– DSCR Loan Landscape – Loans at 0.75 DSCR, five-year prepay traps, what to watch for  27:44– BRRRR Reality Check – Cash-in refinances are common now, full pulls are rare  29:27– Ground-Up Construction Struggles – Why new townhome developments are sucking wind  33:26– Interest Rate Mechanics Explained – 10-year treasury vs. risk spread, Trump MBS buying  36:00 – Macro Outlook: Rates, Fed Chair, Unemployment – Why Kevin expects just one cut in 2026 Connect with our Guests Kevin Amolsch [email protected] Links in Podcast ATTOM Property Data Pine Financial