#631: Why Denver Multifamily Owners Are Done Fighting Colorado

Denver multifamily market values are down 20 to 30% from the peak, and cap rates in some submarkets have climbed into the 8s. For the first time in years, the spread between interest rates and cap rates is back, and cash flow no longer depends on a speculative rent growth story. Host Chris Lopez sits down with Connor Knutson, Vice President at Pinnacle Real Estate Advisors, who has closed $720 million in career transaction volume across the Denver multifamily market. Connor works primarily in the 20 to 100 unit private capital space, and he brings ground-level data on what’s actually trading, where values have reset, and which submarkets have held up through the correction. Where the pain is concentrated. North Aurora rents have corrected 35 to 40%. Golden Triangle new construction is giving 12 weeks of free rent, effectively 25% off asking. One brand new Class A asset there recently traded off-market for $30 million after previously selling for $63 million, or roughly $170,000 per door. Where the value is holding. Wheat Ridge, Golden, and pockets of Arvada have stayed resilient. Rents are steady, vacancy is low, and pricing has softened far less than the metro average. Why buyers are showing up now. Out-of-state 1031 money from Southern California and Wisconsin is landing in the Denver multifamily market at what these investors see as a 30% discount. Colorado owners scaling out of single-family into their first 5 to 10 unit building are also active. Meanwhile, longtime Denver owners in their 70s are exiting the state entirely, citing Colorado’s tenant-friendly legislative shift. In This Episode We Cover: Why the Denver multifamily market values are down 20 to 30% and where the correction has been sharpest The $63 million to $30 million Golden Triangle trade and what it signals for Class A pricing How insurance premiums doubled since 2019 and how some owners are now saving 50% by reshopping Why cap rates in the 8s and interest rates around 6.5% have restored positive leverage The 20 unit Lakewood deal that just closed at $100,000 per door What out-of-state buyers see in Colorado that local investors sometimes miss Why Yardi Matrix is calling for rent growth to return by the end of 2028 The Denver multifamily market has spent two years compressing, and Connor lays out exactly where the numbers now pencil for buyers with capital and patience. If you’re weighing a Denver multifamily entry or watching the cycle for the right moment, this conversation gives you the current pricing, the current terms, and the current sentiment from someone closing deals every month. Watch the Youtube Video https://youtu.be/_a37k7sifBw Timestamps 00:00 — Are we at the bottom of Denver multifamily? 01:22 — Connor’s background and path into commercial brokerage 08:26 — Career tips for young brokers 10:30 — Connor’s niche: Denver metro, 20 to 100 unit deals, $720M closed 12:40 — Oversupply, concessions, and the rate reset 15:06 — NOI compression across the market 15:49 — Insurance doubled since 2019, now softening 17:28— 2026 tax reassessments 19:03 — Aurora hit hardest, Golden Triangle rents off 25% 20:45 — $63M building sold for $30M 21:38 — Wheat Ridge, Golden, and Arvada holding value 22:13 — Who’s buying now 25:10 — Why local investors are sitting on cash 28:16— Syndicator activity today 30:05 — Legislation pushing 70-year-old landlords out 33:14— Why coastal capital still sees Colorado as friendly 37:00— Where we are in the cycle 39:15— Foreclosures, lenders, and receivership 43:34— Cap rates in the 8s and positive leverage returns 46:00 — Lakewood 20-unit at $100K per door 48:11— How to reach Connor Links in Podcast Connor Knutson at Pinnacle Real Estate Advisors: [email protected] Connor’s cell: 303-217-3601 Pinnacle Real Estate Advisors Yardi Matrix