686 Iran's Smart Control - Real Leverage?

17 Feb 2026Iran is conducting a “smart control” exercise to manage traffic around the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leveraging this control in negotiations with the United States. However, the author believes this strategy will not succeed as Iran anticipates. The author also discusses recent military movements, including increased ISR activity over the US East Coast and Europe, and a surge in C17 traffic, suggesting potential preparations for a longer conflict.The US is actively deploying heavy equipment and fighter jets to the Middle East, indicating a potential for a significant air campaign. Iran is conducting military exercises, asserting continuous battle space awareness and threatening to regulate maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, potentially disrupting oil flow and increasing insurance costs. Despite US-Iran talks in Geneva, a deal is unlikely, and both sides are preparing for potential conflict.Iran is threatening to control the Strait of Hormuz, potentially disrupting oil flow, as a means of leverage. The US, Israel, and other nations are preparing for potential escalation, with the US reportedly moving stealth aircraft and missile defence systems into the region. Israel is pushing for enriched uranium to be removed from Iran, and Netanyahu is believed to be influencing Trump’s stance on the situation.The US military is planning extended operations in Iran, with a focus on a potential strike. The deployment of a third carrier group, the USS Ford, to the Middle East, along with the presence of other carrier groups, suggests a significant escalation. The situation is further complicated by Iran’s stall tactics in negotiations, allowing them to prepare for the impending conflict.