76. Crowding in local lists: local branches of national parties and the supply and success of local lists

Camões, P., Ó. Erlingsson, G., & Tavares, A. (2025). Crowding in local lists: local branches of national parties and the supply and success of local lists. Comparative European Politics. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41295-025-00428-5This article examines whether the uneven presence of national party branches influences the emergence and success of local lists (genuinely local candidates) in Portuguese municipal elections between 2001 and 2021. Rooted in the “localist turn” observed in many democracies, the study argues that declining performance of national parties creates local political opportunities exploited by local lists — a crowding-in effect on the supply side. Using logistic and Poisson regressions, the results support two hypotheses: (1) local lists are more likely to emerge where national parties (PS and PSD) are electorally weaker, and (2) their vote shares rise as support for these parties declines. Moreover, higher voter turnout correlates positively with local list performance, suggesting their role in mobilizing dissatisfied citizens. However, the rise of the far-right CHEGA party in 2021 reduced local list votes, indicating competition for disillusioned voters. Overall, the study highlights local lists as substitutes and mobilizers within Portugal’s evolving party system.