7Aug 市场波动给宏观对冲基金带来久违的收益

【今日单词】harbinger /ˈhɑːbɪn(d)ʒə/noun1. a person or thing that announces or signals the approach of another.例句 "witch hazels are the harbingers of spring"2. a forerunner of something.例句 "these works were not yet opera but they were the most important harbinger of opera"preposterous /prɪˈpɒst(ə)rəs/adjectivecontrary to reason or common sense; utterly absurd or ridiculous.例句 "a preposterous suggestion"-----------------------------原文如下：Macro hedge fund stars enjoy return of volatilityby Laurence Fletcher(来自：The Financial Time 金融时报)Macro funds on average are up 8.5 per cent in the first half of the year, according to data group HFR. This summer, Kenneth Tropin, founder of $18bn-inassets Graham Capital, told the Financial Times that he “can’t recall a more interesting time to be a macro investor since the financial crisis”.The market moves have yielded some of this year’s most eye-popping returns. Crispin Odey, long a lone prophet of high inflation who has suffered a string of losses in recent years, has gained about 115 per cent in his European fund this year. New York-based macro fund Haidar Capital is up about 170 per cent.The gains stand in stark contrast to the wider hedge fund industry, much of which is having a year to forget.Hedge funds are on average down 5.6 per cent, according to HFR, with equity-focused funds particularly hard hit. Many managers have found themselves owning too many overpriced technology stocks that have been hammered by rising interest rates and offered little in the way of a hedge to investors.Unlike many of their equity fund peers, macro managers are not dependent on rising markets for their gains. Rather, they look for volatility in bond, currency and other markets.For much of the past decade, that proved elusive as central bank stimulus suppressed market volatility and squashed their favourite trades. Bets that bond yields would rise from ultra-low levels often failed. But last autumn marked a turning point. Markets suddenly began to worry that the central bank narrative of raising interest rates only very slowly was not to be trusted, after all. Some funds, most notably Chris Rokos’s Rokos Capital, were caught out as bond market volatility returned.Some managers now warn that the market is being far too optimistic about the US Federal Reserve’s ability to tame inflation quickly, pointing to the inversion of the US yield curve as a harbinger of tougher times to come.Normally, investors seek higher yields to compensate for the risk of holding bonds for longer. A yield curve inversion is a sign that investors expect interest rate hikes to cause an economic downturn that would eventually lead to a loosening of monetary policy.Decio Nascimento, chief investment officer at hedge fund firm Norbury Partners, which is up around 7 per cent this year, said market confidence in how quickly US inflation will fall back to 2 per cent was “preposterous” compared with historical precedent.Odey, meanwhile, expects the market’s “cast-iron belief” that the Fed has done enough to control inflation will be undermined this autumn.As markets adjust, he expects large sell-offs in conventional government bonds and big gains in index-linked bonds, according to an investor letter seen by the FT.If managers like Odey are right, then investors and consumers may have to get used to high inflation for some time yet. But for macro funds, the trading opportunities may have only just begun.