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8-8-24 Trapped Longs Take The Exit

Economic Reports affected by Hurricanes Beryl & D…

An episode of the The Real Investment Show (Full Show) podcast, hosted by Lance Roberts, titled "8-8-24 Trapped Longs Take The Exit" was published on August 8, 2024 and runs 46 minutes.

August 8, 2024 ·46m · The Real Investment Show (Full Show)

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Summary

Economic Reports affected by Hurricanes Beryl & Debbie; market sell off continues. Inflationary data is still there; unwinding of Yen Carry Trade continues w/volatility. Lance recites a brief history of market crashes, causes & effects. The market correction actually started in July at peak; trapped-longs sold into market rally as exuberance reverses. Earnings Season has delivered a mixed back; 92% of companies have reported, opening buy back windows for business. Consumer sentiment feedback loop affects Fed decision-making; what the Yen Carry Trade does for market moods. The differential in interest rates between the Yen & the Dollar is shrinking. The Fed is reactive...and trapped. Lance & Michael discuss the Sahm Rule recession indicator: This time may be different. Recessions are back-dated by as much as 12-months. Is the economy weakening or normalizing? Indicators are often at odds with one another. YouTube Chat Q&A: Estate Tax Exemptions & Bonds; Is it too soon to short TLT? Eli Lilly & Yen Carry Trade: Where did all the "fast" money go? Liquidity Indicators in conflict: How to accurately measure? Fear dries-up liquidity. SEG-1: A Brief History of Market Crashes; the Correction Started in July SEG-2: The Feedback Effect of Consumer Sentiment SEG-3: The Sahm Rule: Maybe Not This Time SEG-4: YouTube Chat Q&A: Shorting TLT, Liquidity Indicators Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHVg-HJq5Gs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Confidence Is The Underappreciated Economic Engine" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/confidence-is-the-underappreciated-economic-engine/ "The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-sahm-rule-employment-and-recession-indicators/ "Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yen-carry-trade-blows-up-sparking-global-sell-off/ "Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Exuberance Reverses" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhhxNaLDDaA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj- ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Crisis Over?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZWdk9bCH5Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TrappedLongs #SahmRule #RecessionIndicator #MarketCorrection #CarryTrade #YieldCurveInversion #RecessionMisconception #YieldCurveUninversion #EconomicIndicators #FinancialHeadlines #InvertedYieldCurve #RecessionPrediction #EconomicAnalysis #MarketSignals #InterestRates #BondYields #EconomicCycles #FinancialMedia #MarketCommentary #EconomicForecasting #MarketTrends #FinancialEducation #Bonds #Gold #Recession #ISMServicesIndex #Markets #Money #Investing

Episode Description

Economic Reports affected by Hurricanes Beryl & Debbie; market sell off continues. Inflationary data is still there; unwinding of Yen Carry Trade continues w/volatility. Lance recites a brief history of market crashes, causes & effects. The market correction actually started in July at peak; trapped-longs sold into market rally as exuberance reverses. Earnings Season has delivered a mixed back; 92% of companies have reported, opening buy back windows for business. Consumer sentiment feedback loop affects Fed decision-making; what the Yen Carry Trade does for market moods. The differential in interest rates between the Yen & the Dollar is shrinking. The Fed is reactive...and trapped. Lance & Michael discuss the Sahm Rule recession indicator: This time may be different. Recessions are back-dated by as much as 12-months. Is the economy weakening or normalizing? Indicators are often at odds with one another. YouTube Chat Q&A: Estate Tax Exemptions & Bonds; Is it too soon to short TLT? Eli Lilly & Yen Carry Trade: Where did all the "fast" money go? Liquidity Indicators in conflict: How to accurately measure? Fear dries-up liquidity. SEG-1: A Brief History of Market Crashes; the Correction Started in July SEG-2: The Feedback Effect of Consumer Sentiment SEG-3: The Sahm Rule: Maybe Not This Time SEG-4: YouTube Chat Q&A: Shorting TLT, Liquidity Indicators Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHVg-HJq5Gs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Confidence Is The Underappreciated Economic Engine" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/confidence-is-the-underappreciated-economic-engine/ "The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-sahm-rule-employment-and-recession-indicators/ "Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yen-carry-trade-blows-up-sparking-global-sell-off/ "Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Exuberance Reverses" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhhxNaLDDaA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj- ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Crisis Over?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZWdk9bCH5Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TrappedLongs #SahmRule #RecessionIndicator #MarketCorrection #CarryTrade #YieldCurveInversion #RecessionMisconception #YieldCurveUninversion #EconomicIndicators #FinancialHeadlines #InvertedYieldCurve #RecessionPrediction #EconomicAnalysis #MarketSignals #InterestRates #BondYields #EconomicCycles #FinancialMedia #MarketCommentary #EconomicForecasting #MarketTrends #FinancialEducation #Bonds #Gold #Recession #ISMServicesIndex #Markets #Money #Investing

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