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I'm John Lovett. Tommy D'Tore. On today's show, the US and Iran have signed a memo to end hostilities allegedly for now. We'll talk about it as well as the implications for Iran's nuclear program, Israel and our own midterm politics. We'll also dig into Trump's 80th birthday celebration, which involve the much anticipated White House UFC fight and lots of opportunities for him and his pals to make more money.
Gavin Newsom just announced that Trump's goons of the Justice Department are investigating his wife in a bid to derail his potential presidential campaign. We'll get into what we know about that. Then Tommy talks to Senator Mark Warner about the Iran situation and what the Senate can do and why he's pushing his colleagues to confirm Trump's new pick for DNI. Before we start, please consider subscribing. If you haven't already, you get ad-free episodes of PODS of America and all your other favorite crooked pods.
You also get to know that you're supporting independent pro-democracy media. You get full access to our sub-stack newsletters, our subscriber-only shows like Polico's Store with Dan Pfeiffer and all kinds of other goodies. So check it out, crooked.com slash friends become a friend of the PODS subscriber today. Alright, let's get to the news. The Iran war appears to be over and Donald Trump has lost.
US and Iranian officials have signed a memorandum of understanding, shorthand it as an MOU. That extends the ceasefire another 60 days, reopens the straight-of-form moves in exchange for ending the US-enabled blockade of Iran, and kicks just about every other issue to the next phase of negotiations, including Iran's nuclear program and economic sanctions relief. Iran has certainly suffered significant casualties and damage in this war, but Trump's war didn't topple the Iranian regime, destroy its military or ballistic missile capabilities, and around support for proxies like Hezbollah or eliminate its nuclear program. By the way, those were all of the objectives that Trump and Marco Rubio laid out way back in the Korean march when this whole thing started.
Other than that, mission accomplished, which seems to be a face-saving agreement that lets Trump pretend he won, which he did shortly after arriving in Europe for the G7 on Monday. The deal's all fine. And the strain is already partially open, as you know, they're doing the hunting for a couple of minds. The ships are starting to go out. Now on Friday, it'll be completely open.
It's not like the Obama document, which was just a terrible document. I think it's going to be freesally. We do want to see if we can straighten out the Lebanon thing. Where were they? By the way, that was the least presidential backdrop I've ever seen.
I don't know. I see we were somewhere in France with Macron, but they're on a porch or something. Yeah, I don't know where they were. Anyway, the Obama document was terrible, and we do want to straighten out Lebanon, maybe Lebanon. So the administration says the full text of the MOU won't be released for another day or two, but based on the details that have been reported, how does the deal look beyond the headline summary that I gave?
You know, the old Mike Myers saying, like, you know, the suit-nots or not-suit-notsuit-notsuit-nots? Like, this is a replacement nuclear deal. It's not nuclear. We know that, but it's not really even a deal because presumably in a deal, both sides would have to concede something. And I can't figure out what Iran has conceded.
I know the US gave up, right? I know what we're- it was a massive fund that they could get access to sanctions relief. They make it a bunch of cash. They get a ceasefire in Lebanon, which they want to try to constrain. Iran seems to have agreed to.
The nonproliferation treaty had already agreed to, and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which was open 109 days ago. So this is not a deal. This is the US surrendering in order to reopen the negotiations. It stopped when it bombed Iran. It was a deal to temporarily deal with the fallout from the stupid war we started in hopes of maybe getting a full nuclear deal.
The Comsure goals. I mean, you laid it out. I mean, the Trump described his goals. He did a video statement right after they started the war. He said, we're going to destroy their missiles and raise their missile industry to the ground.
We're going to annihilate their navy. We're going to ensure that the region's terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world than attack our forces. And we'll ensure that Iran does not attain a nuclear weapon. I guess we like- It's the Navy? The Navy?
Maybe you get one for that? Yeah, we took a Navy, but they still have the freedom of Hormuz close. So that doesn't seem good. This was the best deal available to Trump in the world because it ended the war. We were seeing economies in Asia collapsing.
We could still see a global famine because of what was happening. But Trump accomplished none of his goals. And I think we should- We have to message that. And Iran now knows they can shut down the global economy at any time by closing the straight home. And they could get hundreds of billions of dollars in sanctions relief.
Like, this is a disaster. And the Trump and Netanyahu, like Netanyahu actually tried regime change by killing the Supreme Leader. Trump was for it when it seemed like it might happen. But the net effect is there's now a younger, more hard-line Supreme Leader and a more entrenched IRGC running the show. And the United States looks unreliable and weak.
I thought it was very funny that in one of his truths about this, Trump was like, I hereby declare the straight open. And then you look at some of the fine print or some of the reported details. And before the war, the straight was controlled by no one. It was an original body of water. And now it will be controlled by Iran and Oman together, apparently.
And so you don't really hear Trump talking about that, although he is saying it's toll free. It's toll free. Like the calls that we used to make back in the 80s and 90s. Sounds like it might be toll free for 60 days. And then Iran has plans to slap a toll on that shipping.
Yeah, they've said that they can charge fees. So that seems to be even that seems to be in dispute right now. Yeah, also, you know, Trump is saying that it'll be fully open by Friday when they sign the agreement. But when they were last talking about what the deal would look like, it was going to take 30 days to potentially remove the mines that are in place. And I don't know if I were an oil tanker.
I would definitely want to go after several. Yeah, I would want to be first. Yeah. Well, I'm like, no, no, after you. After you.
After you. Every restaurant opening is delayed. You know, like when you do a remodeling, it takes a lot of the time. Yeah, but it's a third or fourth oil tank. For sure.
Maybe fifth or sixth. Interesting things about this entire process that we actually have a direct relationship with a number of people at the highest levels of the Iranian government. You know, you could have just called them and not killed like their whole family. So the war was literally the friends we made on the way. Yeah, so that's what we learned.
It's like, hey, man, I know it's hard to make adult friends. JD Vance. The male loneliness crisis. Unbelievable with the Iran war. Where's that?
There's some back and forth on the sanctions relief too. So it's like first it was we heard some reports that there'd be 12 billion in sanctions relief right away with another 24 billion coming later, depending on what Iran does. And then Iran's asking for like a pot of $300 billion that they might be able to access down the road. Now it seems like there's no sanctions relief right away, but it's also like where was the money coming? This is like unfrozen assets, right?
Yeah, there's a bunch of unfrozen money that is the Iranians money sitting in banks and guitar, for example, then there's all this talk of like a $300 billion investment fund that will come from Gulf countries. I'm not sure there's no one knows. Iran's real money is going to come from slapping fees on ships that go through the straight over and move going forward in sanctions relief is my guess. Selling all its oil again. Yeah.
Yeah. Well, they've already claimed that the Docu sign is done or however they did it over email. What has released the text? If the Iranians have seen it and signed it and we've seen it and signed it, there's no secrets between us. So to me, like I can't think of a reason why Iran wouldn't want the text out there.
It seems to me that Vance and Trump are trying to spin this thing until we see the text and everybody loses their fucking mind. Maybe there's something about Jeffrey Epstein and the text. Oh, yeah. I'll be being a team. Be a team.
Go shoot this thing. There we go. Boy. Oh, yeah. What a surprise that we have to connect the conspiracy.
But Trump was always going to say whatever deal signed was better than Obama's Iran deal. You were saying to me this morning that the comparison is apples and oranges. Yeah. In case of the apples, there was a deal that went into force and that worked for a couple of years, according to Trump's own top national scariades. In Trump's case, there is no deal.
There exists a framework to talk about possibly getting to a deal. Just to remind everybody with the JCPOA said, the preamble of the JCPOA said, quote, Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will ever seek to develop or acquire nuclear weapons. Right? So whenever Trump says, look, they said they're not going to get a nuclear weapon, that was already enshrined in the JCPOA and also enshrined in another treaty called the NPT. We won't blabber that.
But to make sure that Iran could not get a nuclear weapon, the JCPOA said Iran had to reduce its enrichment capacity by two thirds. I'm then like taking down or shipping out or shuttering out all their centrifuges. They had to cap enrichment at 3.6% purity, 3.67% purity. They had to ship out 97% of their stockpile and allow the IAEI to inspect all of their nuclear sites. And then agreed to not build a new enrichment facility for up to 15 years.
Republicans were always mad about the sunset provisions in that agreement, but it was working and it worked. And it sounds like Trump is maybe at best going to get a similar deal after launching this disastrous war that he could have gotten if he just tried to renegotiate. We need a president without sunset provisions. That's the problem. Yeah.
It does seem like now that the blockade will be over and the straight is open. It's not like there's a lot of pressure on Iran to get something out of these negotiations. It's just if they want sanctions relief, which I'm sure they do, then maybe they make a deal but they've also been going on quite a long time without sanctions relief. So it doesn't seem like there's a forcing mechanism here. So Israeli and US officials are both saying that Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon is not part of the agreement.
Iran and Pakistan are saying an end to all military operations in Lebanon is part of the agreement. Trump has also been publicly attacking Netanyahu over the last few days for launching strikes in Lebanon that nearly tanked the deal. He told Axios that BB has, quote, no fucking judgment. So this chapter of the conflict seems unresolved. What do you guys make of the Trump BB dust up and where this goes from here?
That was an interview in which Trump said that Israel launching those strikes delayed the deal from going through. And then after the deal goes through in which Iran and Trump are claiming Israel is bound, Netanyahu says he doesn't see eye to eye to Trump and they retain all their prerogatives to defend Israel from attack. And so I don't understand what is supposed to happen over the next 60 days and how you get to the end of 60 days without Trump threatening further military escalation to get to a deal or Israel threatening military escalation or there being some kind of a fight in Lebanon because in his first comments about this, Netanyahu said plainly we reserved the right to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon that will continue to be our position regardless of agreement.
And so I'm Netanyahu who wants to try to blow up talks or prevent a deal. He just bombs somewhere and they root and he tried that move again here and it seems to have pissed Trump off and actually I think probably sped up the deal. I think it's hard to overstate how negative the reaction to this deal is in Israel right now. I follow this one Israeli political security analyst who was in the idea for 25 years and he ran the head of the Iran branch for Israeli military intelligence at one point. So that could be a pretty hard one guy.
He described the deal as a political and security catastrophe for Israel because the nuclear issue was unresolved and the fact that Trump lost the war will likely defer future presidents from taking military action against Iran. We were just saying there about the lack of stick now for the Iranians. And also it seems like a run will end up stronger because they will have all these financial incentives and there will never there won't really be a credible deterrent anymore because no president's going to want to touch the stove. And so this is a huge effort in and out himself. He was Mr. Iran.
He was Mr. Security. He was the guy who could manipulate Washington. Now he's none of those things. He's got an election coming up and here's what some of his opponents are saying.
Avigore Lieberman said a catastrophe from Israel's perspective. That was one quote. Guy or the p the moderate. This is one of the most shocking failures of Israel's foreign insecurity policy period. So I think I'm also watching whether or not you are trustable of this up.
I mean they're currently occupying the Ford operating line for the idea for now was six miles into Lebanon. I'm not going to retreat from that. They're also going to get shot at by Hezbollah. So I just I'm not sure how this is going to go. But you need to be careful because he needs Trump's help both politically in terms of security support going forward.
But also you can imagine from Trump's perspective that he's thinking, okay, I got this whole thing done if the negotiations over the nuclear program don't really go anywhere. No one at home is really going to care or notice and I can just move on. BB though for everything you just said Tommy clearly is not done with Lebanon and Hezbollah and is now feeling all kinds of pressure to continue that. I'm sure Trump thinks, well, maybe he can do whatever he wants. Now I'm washing my hands of this.
I don't I don't want to deal with it. But Iran knows that the best way to get the US back into the conflict and to draw them to draw us back in is to close the straight again. So like you can imagine that like BB goes into Lebanon and then there's another and then Iran, you know, fires to help Hezbollah and they go back and forth and Trump wants to stay out of the whole thing. But Iran of course knows that it can get us back into the whole thing just by closing the straight again. And so like Trump's dream I'm sure is like let these people fight it out.
I don't care anymore. I want to wash my hands of this. Like I just don't think it's going to be that easy. It has looking launch missiles at any time to drive back into the conflict and drop criticism from the world because it's really escalating the conflict in response to Hezbollah part of what Iran has been doing is using Hezbollah to make this conflict also about Lebanon, which is successfully did, right? Because now Israel because now Iran can call off Hezbollah for a short period of time while demanding Israel adhere to a ceasefire in which it's perpetually under threat from Hezbollah in the north.
So it's just the stupidity of this war. We will just be living with it for just a very, very long time. Yeah. I mean, the Iranians have said they've made clear that if the Israelis hit targets in parts of Beirut, they will fire back directly at Tel Aviv. And that's the linkage they created in the two conflicts.
I think it's a very dangerous place for Netanyahu to be because people especially in northern Israel feel like they're living under constant threat from Hezbollah, but the bar is totally fair to the fille way. But in terms of a security measure that's just backfired spectacularly for Netanyahu. Let's say the memo was playing in MaguWorld, which has been divided over Iran. Blupthirsty, warmonger Lindsey Graham raised some eyebrows when he tweeted that while he was pleased to hear the straight will be reopened, he's quote, somewhat concerned with what the Iranians are saying about the MOU believe that Congress must have the final say on any nuclear agreement and quote, it is imperative that the architect of the deal, vice president Vance and his negotiating partners and quote, be part of presenting any final deal to Congress.
So what's that all about, you think? And have you guys seen any other noteworthy reactions from either the anti-war MAGA faction or the Iran Hawks? So John Bolton criticizing it. Lindsey Graham being unable to criticize Trump because Donald Trump cannot fail. He can only be failed so pathetic.
You want to hang this around JD Vance's neck because he's easier to criticize. You feel like you have a little bit more. You're just not scared of the guy. It's all sort of the usual pathetic Instagram. The anti-Iran Hawks are losing their minds.
I interpreted Graham's comments, both as wrapping this thing around JD Vance's neck, but also may be suggesting that this would be subject to a 67 vote threshold in the Senate, which means it would be dead. Yeah, treaties require a two thirds vote. The JCPOA was not treated as a treaty. Thus, future presidents were not bound by it. So maybe that's the argument here.
But like Mark Levin, the Fox News host, is losing his mind on an hourly basis. He's getting fights with the National Scaredes team. The Neocon think tanks are losing their minds, which is one called FDD, the foundation for the defense of democracy, which is just garbage human beings propped up by right wing billionaire money who do nothing but push for wars that they, nor their kids will ever fight in. I haven't heard APAC weigh in. That's sort of suspiciously quiet.
So but the hawkish wing of the Republican Party is furious. They know this is a capitulation. They know Trump loss. They know how to undo it. I hate to break it to Lindsey Graham and maybe JD Vance.
But I don't think Congress will be viewing any kind of deal anytime soon because I just can't imagine a deal actually getting done at this point. You can see Graham going after Vance is, like you said, because he can't criticize Trump, but also kind of like a warning shot to JD Vance about 2028. Yeah. And it did make me think that if this goes as we think it's going to go and the around War Hawks are all pissed off, someone's going to try to launch some kind of a more pro-war campaign in the Republican primary against JD Vance that is destined to fail by the way. Tom Cotton or somebody.
But you can see Lindsey Cruz. Yeah. Lindsey, they want to kind of hold JD Vance up. It's like, beware, beware. I'm going after you in a primary with our Hawks, which is like, oh, I'd be so tired.
Yeah. I really know that's going to work. But you can see that. You can see that maybe like Ted Cruz, who's also I saw thinking about a presidential campaign again. Amazing, amazing stuff.
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It's really great. Enjoy life in the high country. Go to drinkwillys.com and use corporate. I want to touch on all the political implications of all this for the midterms and beyond. There's a question of how long it will take for high gas prices and other straight related disruptions to end.
A question of whether Trump and Republicans will be able to just move on from Iran and pretend like it never happened, even if the next phase of negotiations hasn't led to a deal in November. Then there's a question of what Democrats say about any of this over the next few weeks and months. Tom, you want to take the thoughts on the last one especially? Being a Democrat in this situation is very hard because we are trying to be responsible. The Democrat was cutting this deal.
Barack Obama was making the agreement. Republicans would say, you're weak, you're a coward, you lost, rinse, repeat on Fox News ad nauseam. It's a simple and powerful message. Our job is harder because, again, ending the war was the best of a bad set of options. We need to explain why Trump's starting the war has made us worse off as a nation because I think we just need to kill, and finally, this neo-con argument that you can bomb your way to peace.
We heard this in Iraq, somehow it wasn't discredited then. Now we're at war with Iran, and it's just a nightmare. Again, it's repeating that we failed on the core objectives and just arguing that we could have gotten the deal Trump will potentially get after the 60 days of negotiation without ever going to war. The original sin was not in 2018, just trying to renegotiate the JCPOA. I think Democrats need to be more full-throated in support of diplomatic solutions to problems, stopping afraid of their own shadow on this stuff, and more full-throated about why regime changed wars in the Middle East were a disaster.
I thought we'd all gotten there, but apparently not. The good news is that it's more extremely unpopular, shockingly unpopular. 60 days from now is mid-August, and so two possibilities, well, two whole range of possibilities, but two possibilities are there is a deal in which case Trump will do everything he can to make it seem like he did this amazing move to start the war, to get us to a position to negotiate the deal, and that'll be about us telling just the story of how we got here and how stupid and dangerous and bad it was. And then the other is God only knows the kind of chaos that could happen in the next 60 days. There's algae in the, he drained the fucking reflecting pool to paint it blue, but the algae's back.
He does not have some magical ability to avoid the realities of the world. I think it will be so close to the election by the time we get to a dealer zone that we will be able to, I think, make it a big part of people's dissatisfaction with the economy, the high cost of living, and everything that will carry on for weeks or now, if not months or now. So the straight up move is not a value of you turn on and off. It's not a gas, it's not flowing. Oil futures prices can go down quickly, but takers will now have to come out, and future tankers will have to go back in, load up their gas, and then transit it.
I think there already reports that these oil and gas companies are moving cautiously, because they don't know, this isn't a final deal, there's no agreement, there's no nuclear agreement, Trump is threatening to go back to war. And so I just don't think this is going to be resolved quickly. It was like months, probably. I think even under the best case scenario, gas prices come down between November, but they don't end up where they were before this conflict started at all, because it's just going to take time, even the most conservative economic estimates are saying that. I also think for Democrats, you go out there and it's like Donald Trump just spent the last year embroiling this country in a war that he lost that cost us upwards of maybe $100 billion, and then however many more billion dollars people paid on higher fuel costs.
And he hasn't seemed to have learned any lessons, nor have the Republicans in Congress. If you return to Republican Congress to him, they're just going to create more war, they're going to jump into more wars. He's still talking about Cuba, he still has Greenland on his mind. The guy is a bloodthirsty maniac and so are the Republicans in Congress who approved it. And do you want them to spend even more of your money on more war?
And what did this work get us? It got us nothing. Nothing. It got us nothing and it cost us a lot. We're watching people die, thousands of people dying in the region.
And it's less safe, it didn't make the country any safer. When we talk about costs being higher, it's always very abstract. People's lives are ruined by the fact that suddenly their fuel went up, where they suddenly didn't have access to raw materials. It had huge ramifications for the global economy that we felt for a very long time. And by the way, everyone who's just predicting, oh, this is when gas prices will go down.
This is when oil prices will go down. The market says what the oil is worth right now. The market says what the gas prices work. If people thought and knew that the prices would go down, they already be down. People have no idea what the future holds because we're dealing with fucking maniacs and the complexities of reopening the strait and all the rest.
Nobody knows what gas prices will be in September or October. If they did, that's what the price would be. Yeah. So one funny footnote on the timing of when the Iran agreement was announced. The Iranians didn't want to do it on Trump's actual birthday.
So they waited until it was Monday in Tehran just to be as petty as fuck, which got handed to him, I guess. It was they literally used the time change to keep both Trump and the Iranians happy. So then Trump could say he announced it on his birthday, but the Iranians can say, no, we didn't. It's your 80th birthday. It's adults who care about their birthday.
Everything about Trump's fucking birthday is also embarrassing. The Iranians feeling like they can get one over on Trump by kind of holding it to not sign it technically on the birthday is stupid. But it's a response to dealing with a guy that clearly wanted the fun of signing the thing on his fucking birthday. Which happened when you have a world run by tyrants. They're all just little petty bitches.
Unbelievable. So of course, none of this stopped Trump from celebrating the deal or himself. He threw a Loki party at the White House Sunday night where the South Lawn was transformed into a Vegas aisle UFC arena that hosted a cage match attended by 4,000 lucky guests and broadcast it to Paramount plus subscribers. The $60 million event paid for by the UFC and other sponsors was truly surreal to watch. Here's some of what it looked like.
I'll just narrate this for those of you who are just listening. There's Trump and Dana White walking out of the oval. There's a fly over. I love his fly over. And here's an actual eagle.
That's called Alsomber's Sick. There's the fight. One of the fights. Yeah, there's a couple of this. A little evil, can evil action happening.
This is one of the fighters walking out from the oval. Oh, shell Obama is a man. Am I right? Yeah. Even the crowd is like, and that was Josh Hokett who won the heavyweight fight.
He has apparently said that before. That was like a bit of his. He said it before in a fight. He put it on his Instagram last year. And so, you know, it's, I don't know if that makes it better or worse.
It's a far right negative thing. Yeah, but for him especially is what I'm saying. So what'd you guys think of the fight? So I feel like everybody combined a couple of bunch of things. Like one was the just the brazen corruption of the whole thing and having Bud Light's sponsorships on the White House lawn and the crypto stuff and all the rest.
The fact that Donald Trump made this event about him and not the country and that's a big part of it. If this were a Democratic White House that also had poetry slams and readings by Pulitzer prize winning journalists and other kind of sophisticated events and then one day Barack Obama was like, yes, we're going to have motorcycles jumping over each other on the South lawn. I'd be like, that's great. Having an eagle fly around and land on somebody's arm during the, during America celebration. That's great.
All these sort of busy bodies on social media being like, a fortune wilder once visited the White House. Like guys, guys, can you, can you please not be a bunch of prissy, stuck up people, like fucking motorcycles. I have no problem with that. That is entertaining and it could be on the White House lawn. Zero problem with that.
Corruption and then making it about him and it being a right wing magazine. Like that is the problem. Yeah. The president told events on the South lawn. Sometimes it's a concert.
Sometimes it's the dude in a bunny suit rolling Easter eggs. Sometimes it's a cage fight. It's like that is what it is. That didn't bother me either. The corporate sponsorship stuff that we're going to get to in a minute is where it gets really gross but just politically, I don't know that it was smart for Trump.
I think UFC fans will love it. Trump, super fans will love it. Regular people that are pissed about inflation are saying like, what are you doing? How are you spending your time this way? The Reuters at a poll, just 16% of Americans said it was appropriate for Trump to hold the ultimate fighting championship event for his 80th birthday while 46% said it was inappropriate.
I'm not sure what the best or whatever. I don't care anymore. So whatever it is, it is. It's also like there's a lot better sports to watch this weekend. The next one, the NBA championship.
There's a million World Cup games. The Stanley Cup finals were on. I was doing other things. I don't have Paramount Plus. I couldn't even watch it.
We have Paramount Plus for some kids' programs. It was so I watched the whole thing. I tried to watch it as someone who was just like, okay, what if I was not really paying attention to politics? What would this look like? For the production value, outstanding.
It looks great. The whole event looked really cool. There were some UFC fighters who have commented publicly about how this is a gross thing to do and cynical for the president to make it all about him and we're going to talk about the corruption and all that. The parts that made it more about Trump were the parts that you're like, what is this? First of all, the fights weren't that great.
I'm not a UFC person, but all of them were kind of quick and... First round knockouts. Yeah. And they were like knockouts, but it was just... And then you see that the number of times it panned to Trump and then it talked about Trump and then there's Mark Zuckerberg and then there's the president of crypto.com and all this kind of shit.
It's like all of the accoutrements around it could get really annoying, but the fight itself and the way it looked at the white house in the background looked pretty cool. Well, this is where we should talk about the corruption, but this is where you can't separate the fact that he is so corrupt from the event itself because Donald Trump is trying to steal the patriotism and excitement and prestige of America's birthday and kind of put it on himself, but the end result is really just he gets his stink on the white house and the event itself because if you didn't know that this was so partisan and so corrupt and such a boondoggle and such favoritism and just so much corporate interest, then maybe it wouldn't be so terrible to have a flyover or have Marines standing behind a fighter or whatever. It may not be the kind of thing I would normally want to watch, but it wouldn't be so despicable but to use the military and to use these symbols for such a corrupt practice.
I think it's why the whole thing becomes so sort of ugly. Yeah, I will say the walking the fighters out through the oval and the dipper room and having all the Marines there saluting the like it was that part was like a little, little much. Well, because it's a four profit event. And because for profit event and the whole America 250 thing too because it's like whatever president is leading the country when it's America's 250th or 275 or 300 or whatever, you get to do your own thing, right? But they sort of went out of the way to make it feel exclusionary to anyone who wasn't MAGA and just in the way that they did the event, right?
Like they could and not just by being a UFC fight, you could have done UFC fights that still seems welcoming and unifying to most of the country. This is where back to where Trump was in the first term, where he was always taking pictures in front of the desk. They're fucking tourists because they don't belong until they walk through this gold plated room that looks like a gold fungal infection and kind of they show through these fighters walking through all the rooms. It reminds me of like when human beings in some apocalyptic future stumble upon a museum and they're walking through looking around me like, who built this? How is this even here?
Like that sort of the feeling of it to me. Hi, it's America's Roger by Tommy John. This summer, don't be that guy. You know, the one who has full sweat pools under his arms sticking to his shirt and he, well, eat Tommy John, that's gonna be me. All right.
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party without also turning it into an orgy of corruption, but that would take all the fun out of it. First the broadcast itself, Dana White originally said that the fight would be free on CBS, not owned by Paramount, but it ended up on the $9.99 per month Paramount Plus instead. Paramount is of course owned now by Trump, L.I. David Ellison, who had a front-riskie to the fight two days after Trump's DOJ approved his latest acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery, which includes CNN. There was also like a brunch or a dinner for David Ellison that weekend too, big party for that, so everyone is celebrating the big merger.
As for Trump himself, ahead of the fight, the president quietly purchased between $15,000 and $50,000 worth of stock in TKO Holding Group, which owns UFC. Which is nothing for him, but optically so stupid. You know what I mean? Just doesn't care anymore. There were also some tweets that appeared to be between Eric Trump and UFC commentator Daniel Cormier looking for inside information for betting on the fights.
The Cormier is saying publicly that his account was hacked. Not to fear, the fight still offered plenty of opportunities to make the Trump family richer. Take a listen. If you didn't catch all that, one of the official sponsors of the event was the Trump's family crypto operation, World Liberty Financial. We've talked about this a lot here.
For this event, they created a $250,000 bonus pool for the fighters, which is to be paid in their stablecoin USD1. And then you heard there was also a sponsorship plug there for TrumpCoins.com, which is selling commemorative medallions designed by President Trump at prices up to $12,000 apiece. The coin heavy event. Just an idiot tax whoever's buying these fucking coins. Reacting to a bunch of these stories, the White House said that Donald Trump only acts in the best interest of the American public.
And then his assets are in a trust managed by his children. So what's the problem, guys? I mean, politically speaking, Trump should be furious that this thing was on Paramount Plus, right? That limits the distribution. That hurt him, right?
This is propaganda. Then why is it not seen by more people? So you're like, okay, I get what Paramount Plus got. They got to add subs to get people to buy this. What's the kickback?
The crypto stuff is disgraceful. Remember, USD1 is their stablecoin. Remember the Trump's got the Emiratis to use their stablecoin in this transaction when they invested $2 billion into Binance that made it the 7th biggest stablecoin in the world. And then Reuters did this big investigation of the Trump family crypto assets. They found that Trump family has made $2.3 billion in profit.
And then of course, on the other side of that, you have a million retail investors who have gotten fleeced and have taken $2.3 billion in losses. So this is just an ongoing show of the way they're using crypto just to ring money out of their followers. I find that Eric Trump, what's his name? Daniel Cormier thing, makes no sense. Eric Trump, so those stories he deemed the guy said, hey, is this fight rigged because I want to bet on it?
And then Cormier is like, no, I got AI hacked. What does that mean? It didn't make sense when Eric said he deleted it because it was fake. But then why would he have posted it? Eric Trump was the first time I believed it might be true was when Eric Trump posted it.
Yes, me too. And then Daniel Cormier, he was asked about it at the fight and was just like, that's crazy. Why would anyone believe that? And then he tweeted it? Are you all stupid?
But like, you posted it's interesting because if you look at the exchanges that they posted or the DM that they posted, it's very, it's not like it's not as obvious as like, hello, are there any fights rigged? I would like to bet on them. And he's like, oh, I didn't expect to hear from you, man. How it's good to see you and your family at the fight can't wait. He's like, hey, he plays any bets and then he just keeps going.
He's like, all right, fine, I'll get to it. Any of the fights rigged? Who knows what's real or what's fake anymore? Anything could have happened. Could have been hacked.
Someone could have done it. I don't know about that. Yeah, well, there's the problem with these people being. And they don't tell the drill. The drill is the drill.
The drill is the drill. The drill is the drill. The drill is the drill. The drill is the drill. The drill is the drill.
The drill is the drill. The drill is the drill. The drill is the drill. The drill is the drill.
to do with their earlier dispute with the Pentagon? This to me actually similarly are something. It's because we know that they picked this fight with the Anthropic a few months ago. It's actually hard to know what's true. If you read the details, there does seem to have been a legitimate concern with access to the models that were raised by Amazon and others, but then it appears the administration, which has a vendetta against Anthropic maybe went too far in its reaction.
And now the executives have to fly to DC to make nice because it's not about what's in the interest of the Pentagon or the country, but it's about personal relationships and ego. And so they have to figure out how to smooth things over. And it is just very hard to tell the difference between penalizing Anthropic because it's now an enemy of the administration versus actually stepping in because there may have been an issue or somewhere in between. Yeah. I mean, so there was a concern about an anthropic model and the ability for it to find cybersecurity vulnerabilities and exploit them.
So they limited the distribution and then these researchers at Amazon got access to fable five, which is like mythos with guardrails that they released the public. They were able to trick it, essentially, into giving them restricted information. And then the Amazon CEO titled the Scott Bessin about what happened. Now, normally, like, that's really good. And normally, I'd be like, actually, that's a good.
That's like how the system should work because you want, you know, sort of a circuit breaker there in some way to prevent the distribution of these models to bad actors. Like what the administration did was they cut off access for foreign users. But yeah, I mean, just the thing that was so odd about this is all the little Trump propagandists went to Twitter and they tried to dance on anthropics grave and they gave all of us reason to think, oh, actually, this is just part of this ongoing pissing match between anthropic and the Pentagon. And because anthropic doesn't want to create autonomous killer drones or be used in bulk mass surveillance of American citizens. Yeah, it was hard to read between the lines and the Axios story about it, too, which is also like, you know, that the Axios story came mostly from the administration.
And there's some administration official background saying, like, the real problem is they don't know how to anthropic doesn't know how to communicate with this administration and the ideological differences are really getting in the way. And it's like, what does that have to do with a potential security vulnerability that you're saying was the root of the problem here? What does the ideological differences in communication have to do with anything? Also, if you know that, if you have insight enough to know that they're communicating effectively with you, then it seems you know what they're trying to communicate. Yeah.
Hey, like, you're not being nice enough and how you're handling me. If you want me to do what you want, you better be a little bit more sensitive to my issues and my needs. In anthropics, preparing for an IPO. It seems like a great way to damage them in advance of that. Yes.
But for what it's worth, we should say Dana White and a bunch of other participants at the White House event condemned the comments about Michelle Obama, which was nice to see. Now, the right thing to do would be Donald Trump to call Michelle Obama and say I'm so sorry that was disgusting. But the White House person would even make a sort of brush basket or if you used to apologize. In the moment, you actually see Rogan's face as soon as he said it and Rogan sort of like back away like, do you see what small his tie was? It's like a half a time.
You could tell that like the Dana White's the people and Donald Trump was like, yeah, Donald Trump was probably like, yeah, he probably loves me. He posted stuff like down the past. Well, the guy then gave his like medal to Donald Trump, the guy who made the comment on Trump accepted it. So it's just like Trump posted a video of the two of those apes. Of course, sort of six months ago through the looking glass on that one.
One more corrupt date that broke as we were preparing to record this Gavin Newsom said in a video Monday morning that he and his wife are being targeted by Trump's DOJ saying that federal agents have been knocking on the doors of their family friends and former employees in Newsom's words. He said they're digging through quote, years and years of documents and quote, abusing the grand jury process, trying to quote, look for crime. Then there was this line Donald Trump isn't just coming after me because of my mean tweets. He's coming after me because I'm considering running for president. He then went on to attack Trump on corruption for several minutes.
We didn't get a ton of detail from Newsom's statement other than the DOJ seems to be focused on Jen, his wife. I saw some takes about how this will be great for Newsom's potential presidential campaign and fundraising, sure. But it also seems like a fairly chilling preview of what's to come in 2028 for any Democrat who runs for president. I don't know what you guys say. Yeah, okay.
It's nice to say it's great for fundraising before we know any of the details about what the charges could be, how serious it is, what they're trying to do. But I don't think anybody, even if it does make them get some attention, is excited to find out that there's a grand jury trying to indict you. We have gone from Pam Bondi who is as like a plant and willing to do Trump's bidding as you could imagine until we got to Todd Blanchu somehow even worse. Trump just put his personal attorney in charge of the Southern District of New York. We have a completely politicized Department of Justice unlike anything we've ever had before in our history.
And part of the job will be about not only preventing those things from impacting our politics directly, but also figuring out how to create guardrails and fix it in the future once Trump is gone. Yeah, as much as I understand the galaxy brain political takes, the human take is Gavin Newsom sits down at dinner and is like, hey, honey, this is going to help me in the early states, like what are we talking about here? It's like horribly chilling for your wife to be potentially prosecuted by the Department of Justice. Even if she's nothing wrong, it's scary, it'll cost them money, it'll cost them time. Yeah, like the maximally cynical view is that Trump is doing this because he thinks Gavin's talented and a possible competitor to the Republican Party and wants to take him out of the race preemptively by going after his family.
Maybe it's all in the merits, right? There was a Gavin Newsom's former aide, which was prosecuted. Maybe it's coming out of that. What we know is Trump has openly called on his attorney general to go after his enemies. He just tried to install Bill Pulte and then with no national security experience as the director of national intelligence solely because that man has shown a creativity in using his access to information to go after Trump's critics.
So it seems like part of a pattern. Yeah, I mean, it is a cynical view. It's also the like everything we've seen from Trump over the last decade leads you to believe that whoever he thinks is leading in the race for the Democratic nomination, he's going to look to see if there were any kind of possibilities for investigation, right? Like that's all it takes too is so yeah, so Gavin Newsom's former aide who ended up being convicted or taking a deal or something based on activities that preceded her time working for Gavin Newsom at all. But doesn't matter, like Jen Newsom has some kind of a non-profit and is there questions about the non-profit and the payments?
Any thread that Trump and his administration can pull on any of these potential contenders, they will, and probably knowing that they can't actually investigate all of them at once when they're all in the primary stage together, they're going to go after the people who are leading in the polls. And really, I think the only way you're going to avoid investigation from Donald Trump is if you were last place in the polls and suddenly surprise everyone and then win a race and then they'll get an investigation going pretty fast. Yeah, it's like we need a junior soprano to be the face of the operational, Tony's running things behind the scenes. Ben Jacobs on Twitter was like, this is a good case for Hunter Biden being the nominee since he was already part of the party. Yeah, that's exciting.
Sorry for flooding himself for this. It's to me, it was like a preview of even now where we're like, okay, Democrats can do all the midterms, everything's fine. We're heading to 2028 and the idea that this is just going to be some kind of a fair fight. And even if there's a lot between Donald Trump refusing to leave the White House or running for a third term and then everything going swimmingly, nothing happened. There's just a ton of room between them.
I think we just can say whoever is the Democratic nominee, regardless of what investigation launched for the primary, there will be an intensive effort to try to paint them as a corrupt criminal between sort of say, June and the election. They will use all the power at their disposal. They will try to muddy the water. And by the way, part of this is, this is why selective prosecution is so dangerous. We live in a free society and we know that if you start digging into anyone's finances, taxes, history, you can try to drum something up.
You can find a discrepancy. You can find something that you can use to bring to a grand jury. That is what it is so dangerous to have a DOJ like us and you know that the client, right? We media, they find anything. They also, well, look, this was legitimate investigation.
They found this IRS discrepancy. This needed to be punished and without any understanding of how dangerous this is to have people being chosen as targets to look for crimes. Did Kevin front run this? Yeah. Yeah.
And Paul from the Times saying we're running this and they got ahead of it or how this went. Because the Times sort of does have some new some officials background in there. And it also has some officials, I guess, from the Justice Department as well, though the Justice Department won't comment officially, obviously. They also said that it was like started by federal officials in California, not in Washington, the investigation. But I do think that it was, we haven't talked about the politics of this, but I thought it was smart that Newsom got ahead of it and was able to frame it as Trump coming through.
Yeah, I mean, like it just shows how much communications have changed over the last decade or two. Because normally when there's some sort of criminal prosecution or investigation, you don't say anything. You let your lawyer speak or you don't comment and you don't want to put anything else in the public domain. They view this as a PR battle, which tells you they probably feel confident about the legal side of things and they just want to get ahead of the political fight. I also think this is going to be a collective action problem because everyone's interests are obviously not aligned here.
Or the other Democratic and no one's announced yet. So it doesn't work right now. But as we get into this, like all the other Democratic candidates, someone gets targeted like this, even if it's a potential rival, you got to go out and say that it's absolutely bullshit. I stick up for them. I stick up for each other.
Yeah. I think that's also free, by the way. I don't think there's a lot of equity for people who are saying like, I think Trump has a problem at and then coming out strongly and saying it's going to be a fucking problem. What about going down to John Bolton's prison and singing him some sort of song through his arms? Yeah.
Where is he right now? Because I saw he's a comic. He's cutting a deal, right? He's cutting a deal. I don't think it's gone through the process yet.
But I think you could get up to five years, even with this deal. He was just money. I thought he was just paying money. The reporting I read was fine, potentially up to five years and hopefully for his sake that there'll be some leniency. But like the dude was like sending emails to himself and to his wife and daughter with classified information.
It's like the dumbest thing you could possibly do. Look, I've said this before. I'll say it again. I'm not going to agree if James comic goes to prison. Wow.
86. What were you saying? Oh, listen, I'll obviously be upset about the injustice. I'm just saying he can use a couple of nights behind those bars to think about what he's done. I'm just so tall and he's made so many mistakes.
I think it's morally reprehensible. I don't think it's a good thing. I'm just saying he'll think a lot of what he does. I think the video is he does. Everything he does.
I think that has been an imprisonment all of its own. Sure. I'm in the guinees. Sure. I'm actually inside of a jail cell.
Just saying. There's a bulwark exclusive. There up with that ceiling. Just a couple of minutes. Run that tin cup across the bars.
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Thanks, Tony. So we were speaking on Monday afternoon Pacific time. We're still waiting with Bated Breath, the CFOE, the actual text of whatever Donald Trump negotiated with Iran about their, you know, the state of her moves. What do you know about this digitally signed memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran?
What do you make on sort of the leaks and reporting on it so far? I know, Zippo. I know nothing more than you. And I think, frankly, even our Republican Senate friends have not seen any of this. You know, we do wonder whether this was time for his birthday or to try to affect the markets today.
We do know, I think this is less than what it appears. And, you know, we knew at some point Trump was going to declare victory. And the sooner we get out of this war of choice, the better. But if, you know, I hate to kind of like suck up, but if you look at your, your tweets today, you know, you are absolutely right on all four of the goals that Trump laid out. We're not close to any of them.
Yeah, it sounds like we maybe have an agreement to have more talks where they will try to get to an agreement that's about the nuclear program, the ballistic missile support for proxies, et cetera. But it's all forward looking as far as I can tell, right? You know, the things we do know are this. The regime is more hardcore now than it was before. The new leader, since we killed his dad, his wife, his kid, more hardcore.
We do know that the Iranians have been masters for years at trying to hide the ball on their enriched uranium and the idea that we're somehow going to get this without troops on the ground or by some international agreement, God willing, but I'm not going to hold my breath. The fact that the DOD and HECC have misrepresented how much we had taken out of the Iranian ballistic missiles, obviously not the case since they're still shooting them off and that doesn't even count their drones. And then we've taken what was an international open gateway of a passage straight up our moves and Iran will have something to say on a going forward basis. None of that makes us, none of that makes our Gulf allies, none of it even frankly makes Israel stronger than when we started 107 days ago.
Yeah, I mean, I noticed in the run up to the war, the Iran Hawks trotted out a new talking point, which is that Iran could create a ballistic missile arsenal that was so great that it might be able to prevent the US and Israel from taking out their nuclear infrastructure in the future. So I don't want to ask you about the state of that ballistic missile inventory and their capacity to manufacture new ballistic missiles. What do we know that you can discuss publicly? Well, we know that we have degraded some, it's both the missiles and their launchers. We took out some of them.
The earlier estimates, and I can say this because it's in the public that we had eliminated 70, 80, 90 percent are just factually not true. And they have had many of them launchers as well are still interesting. They can, they can obviously reconstitute some of these missiles. We've not been able to blow up how all that started. And these missiles are significant, but again, we took down many of them.
But as we go into this war of choice, what we have done, and this is the part where the Iranians, I think will come back unfortunately and bite us is they have been dribbling out their missiles. We have been using both with the missiles and the drones, very expensive interceptors that cost you know, two and a half million dollars a piece. And they have bled down our supplies, our supplies, Gulf allies, even Israel supplies, so that if they have anything close to what we presume, they can continue to bleed that down. And at some point, we won't have the capacity to take them out. One of the reasons why it was so insane that we didn't take the Ukrainians offer in December, where they were going to say, we will give you our anti-droned technology, which they have the best in the world, which could have at least taken down the Iranian drones.
Right. Right. You mentioned the new sort of set of leaders. I mean, the previous Supreme Leader of Iran was quite well known. He'd been around for a while, as were a lot of the senior members of the IRGC and the Iranian military.
Then Israel and the US killed a lot of them. Now it's arrived by this new crop of leaders, the Supreme Leader's son is apparently really wounded and hiding, but presumably more hard line than maybe his father, since we killed his dad. We killed his wife. We killed his kids, I think, reportedly. Now there's a new crop of younger IRGC generals who seem to be more firmly entrenched.
Trump keeps saying that the new crowd is more pragmatic. What do you know about the new crowd? There is absolutely zero evidence that anybody in the new crowd is more pragmatic, that is more westward leaning. They may live in fear, and I think we have put fear of God in them. But the idea that they're more willing to make a deal, there's been no evidence to date that I've seen any intelligence on that.
And matter of fact, the the structural Iran was they always had, they have a government and they have a formal military that's a little bit separate from the IRGC. The one thing that is the case is that the government, which was sometimes more moderate in the more traditional military, they have lost power in this last hundred eight days. So IRGC, more radical, more in power. Excellent. A big win for us.
What we think is maybe the outlines of a future deal would require Israel to honor a ceasefire in Lebanon against Hezbollah as well. Do you have any confidence that Netanyahu or Hezbollah will honor that ceasefire? Because it seems like Netanyahu is a pretty decent political incentive to blow up the deal given the initial response to it in Israel. I have no confidence that the baby who's got his own political problems. And I think in many ways, it really hurt Israel's reputation in the region around the world.
And then the again, tragedy on top of tragedy, I think there was a moment in the fact that Israel is negotiating with the Lebanese government. If we could have actually put some oomph behind that and help the Lebanese government, who does have a military actually disarm Hezbollah, the people of Lebanon might have come out of this better. They are not now. And instead you've got the Netanyahu government bombing, not only the Shia, but unfortunately, Druze, Christian and Sunni villages in the South. And my fear is pushing some of the Lebanese back into the hands of Hezbollah.
Yeah, and it sounds like Israel has not agreed to pull its troops out of Lebanon. My understanding is they're occupying, you know, if this sort of six miles over the border. I'm just wondering how an ongoing occupation is not likely to lead to good renewed, if not increased conflict. Was that called a softball question? Yes.
Yeah. It was like, yeah, and we've seen, you know, baby's got his own political problems. He's under indictment. He has to maintain this far right agenda. And and my fear is not only Lebanon, but what also is taking place and one of the reasons why I voted against even giving any more bulldozers to Israel.
The other tragedy that's taking place is what's happening on the West Bank. As the Israeli settlers, I think they do awful things on some of the Palestinian villages. Yeah. So just big picture. I mean, I'm struggling with how to talk about this as a Democrat because I think the best option available to Donald Trump was ending the war as soon as humanly possible for a variety of reasons, but especially because I was worried that this was going to lead to a famine in places like Sudan and mass starvation and death because fertilizer and fuel just wasn't getting through the street.
At the same time, I don't think we should give Donald Trump a pass for launching this catastrophic unnecessary war because all the outcomes he might get through this negotiation process. He could have gotten just by talking to them in the first place and not bombing them. So how are you thinking about how to talk about this? Tommy, it is such a that is a very fair question. I don't want to Trump gets no credit for this world choice and where we are.
And that doesn't even count the hundred billion dollars of assets we've lost in the region. It doesn't cost the 60 billion dollars of increased gas prices. Right. It doesn't cost the effect of in Sudan and elsewhere. But I'm not going to, you know, but the question is I'm not going to just blasting for ending it because ending it was this agreement will not stand the test of any scrutiny.
You know, I'm not going to give him credit, but I'm glad he ended it rather than continued where what could have led to even a worse circumstance. So I actually think on this one, the there is no way even a Trumpian figure can turn this into anything other than what it is is that we America and our friends are in worse place than we were at the end of February. Yeah, I agree with you there. So here's a little bit to Trump tried to install a man named Bill Poltey as the director of national intelligence. I'd love to hear your thoughts on why you think he made that selection, whether Poltey even would have met the statutory requirements for the job.
I should say he ganked Poltey's nomination after Democrats in the Senate said, hell no, no way. And did that selection make you even more worried about how Trump might have used the intelligence community? Absolutely. Bill Poltey is a third generation rich kid who literally got thrown out of his own family company. Right.
And then, you know, taking what would be a relatively benign oversight of the mortgage Vanian Freddie was able to take private information about Lisa Cook at the federal reserve and shift on my colleagues and weaponize that. I do think figures in the White House tried to prevent Trump from doing this. But it's always the case, Poltey or whoever speaks to the president last, he got him, he got him put in. And I'm, you know, and this came at a moment in time when we have to reauthorize something called Section 702, which is a critical intelligence tool that the Biden's Obama has ever supported. And we've used our leverage to say, you know, we're not going to reauthorize seven or two if Poltey is there.
Now, my concern, frankly, is seven or two has got enough bells and whistles and audits that if he misuses that it will be, I think we'll find it. I'm more concerned about the fact that this guy who doesn't even have a national security clearance suddenly gets the keys to 18 agencies and maliciously or not gets exposed to things that could be a huge security risk and our challenge right now. And this goes down the rabbit hole. You know, Trump has finally appointed somebody else, someone who, you know, I've worked with the Times. I still need to ask him, Jay Clayton, who was the former SEC head and the current US attorney for the Southern District of Manhattan.
You know, I want to make sure he's not going to interfere on elections and you know, basic constitutional rights. But if we delay getting him in, Poltey could still serve and there's nothing we can do as an interim for a few days. And you know, I think the Democrats in the Senate will have to decide, do we wave to get this through? He will get confirmed. I hope the sooner or later so that we don't have Poltey in this office, hopefully ever. Oh, so that's why you're trying to fast track Jay Clayton's nomination to
try to shrink the amount of time that that Poltey could be in that job. Yes, sir. And again, and it's like, and the irony, and here's the thing. You know, I had huge problems with Tulsi Gabbard. Yeah, current.
She was going to stay until the end of the month. Poltey tried to fire her and they advanced her leaving date till this coming Friday. If she would just, I never say I want to say Gabbard stay, but if she would stay until the beginning of July, we could get it done in two weeks. Right. We could get it done in one weeks.
We'll be frankly up to my Democratic colleagues who, you know, they can vote against Clayton, they can vote against 702. But please, let's separate keeping Poltey out of the job and the, the, you know, the renewal of Section 702. Yeah, I'm with you on prioritizing keeping Poltey away from all of that information. I didn't want to ask you about a FISUS section 702, though, because for those who aren't familiar, this is the provision that lets the intelligence community get information from American telecom companies to turn over the electronic communications of foreign persons located outside of the United States without a warrant. And civil liberties advocates have long been concerned about 702 because of the potential for abuse and also because communications to and from American citizens and those foreign persons are often captured in the process without a warrant and could be reviewed, um, in, you know, by people investigating them, the information.
So in the past, I've mostly felt like on balance, the section 002 was defensible for a variety of reasons. It is the thing that national security professionals will tell you is the most important tool in their toolkit. But I'll tell you, after the Poltey selection, I no longer have confidence that Trump won't use all of these tools to abuse his authorities. So why am I wrong? Like, why am I wrong?
The Democrats should fight this. Well, first of all, section 702, which has had prior abuses. We've gone to three rounds of reforms. The FBI used to be very callous about how it used it. They went from only 60% compliance to 98% compliance on making sure that appropriate section balances are dealt with number one.
Number two, my concern with Poltey is so great, not about 702 because there are enough reporting that he will at least be discovered. Now, that may not assuage you, but there will be an audit trail, whereas he could try to get other information that doesn't have near the same audit trail. And then I do think there is a one of the things that took me a long time to go wrap my head around this. So you've got two Russian spies, one of Moscow, one of Paris, they're talking about this. They keep mentioning this guy, Tommy.
And we don't know from listening whether Tommy is collaborating with the Russians or someone the Russians are going after to see if they can hack into Tommy and actually be a victim. Right. And the idea of what this is the part that I don't think people fully understand. If we want to look at who else Tommy has called, we've got Tommy's name, we got his number. We can only look at the numbers, but not the content.
If you want to look at the email, Tommy sends something to Mark, if you want to look at the content, you have to get a warrant. But the idea that you could get a warrant because there is the circumstance that this could be an active live terrorist event and you don't know whether Tommy's about to go to a bomb, the idea that you could get a warrant when you only know the name when 20% of the time, 15% to 20% of the time, Tommy is the victim, not the bad guy. It is at the end of the day, I've come down to this is such an important security tool, President Obama supported President Biden, Trump. It is 70% of what we was in the presidential daily brief, but I understand that people have feel the other way.
And we have added additional requirements that if it's a politician, if it's a religious figure, if it's a media person, you have more hoops, if it's somebody where information might be about their constitutional rights, because you're out protesting ICE, you can't use it there. It will never be for friends like Ron Wyden, who was a hard core civil libertarian, we're never going to, I will never satisfy him. I do think there will be at the end of the day, you know, somewhere around 15, 20 democrats that will still say, absent the problem, because here's my problem. This goes away. God forbid something happens.
And Donald Trump then says, we wouldn't have had this incident if we had this tool. And the irony, just one last one on this is I don't think Donald Trump actually even supports the provision that much because it took him to like six weeks, seven weeks before the bill expired that he even came out and formally said he supports it. Right. What wouldn't the actual kind of existing authorities not expire for almost another year if there wasn't a reauthorization? That is again, the where the rubber hits the road in 20.
There is the ability that this authority is certified once a year and it would be maintained until March. Right. When this came up under Biden, what we heard from the telcos, and this is mostly telcos in the Google's and the hyperscalers, they said, DeBiden's security team, if this expires, we are no longer going to participate because we don't have indemnification. This expired on Friday night. So we're now into an area where, you know, who is right?
Will they continue to participate or not? One of the telcos today told me and goodness that they will participate. The others, we don't have an answer. And what is insane to me is I'm the freaking advice chair was former chair of the Intel. I should know whether they are participating or not.
Right. Right. And in a normal world, the Justice Department, if we still have real lawyers, would have tried to get an injunction to try to force them to continue to participate until it was litigated out. So we don't need to put this gap. My understanding, they've not even filed suit yet.
So we will there will be this this gap, hopefully not too long, but we will find out whether the concern I had that they won't participate without indemnification is true or not. OK. Just as long as I'm treating you like my deep state therapist, I mean, is it wrong to focus on the DNI when cash Patel is just as unqualified and has more authorities to conduct do things that are abusive against Americans via the FBI? Well, I've gone through a long let me have cash, but tell abuses and mistakes. And he should not be there.
The DNI does get keys to all 18 agencies. Frankly, the DNI to go nerdy again. That whole role needs to be slimmed down, probably reexamined. It came out after 9-11, well intention, but grew too much. But no, cash, but tell us cares about how to meet and what also scares the hell out of me is we have seen intelligence professionals in other agencies.
The NSA, which is our spying organization in terms of listening in, you know, they fired the guy who was there was a career professional because Laura Loomer went after him or head of the Defense Intelligence Agency told the truth about the first bombing of Iran a year ago where he said, yeah, we whacked him pretty good, but we didn't know the right, the nuclear program. Obviously the truth, we wouldn't be back in on this. So you've got plenty of, I got plenty of reasons to keep you up at night in terms of concerns. Have you ever seen cash before? I'll just tell you a beer.
It doesn't spill a drop. Let me tell you, man. Just on just on video. Although I will, I won't even I'm hesitant to say this, but there's some colorful videos online about Mr. Palti as well.
Oh, I've seen one of those. The gentleman for him seems to be having a good time. Senator, thank you so much for doing the show. Maybe when we learn what's actually in the steel, we could talk again. That'd be nice.
Love to. You want to? Thanks. Appreciate it. Thanks.
Take care. That's our show for today. Thanks for coming on. We'll be back in the feed on Friday with a special episode of the three of us and Dan will be recording in Chicago at the opening of the Obama presidential center. Fun.
Nice. Talk to everybody soon. Pause America is a quick media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts and Ferris of Ari with Riturling, Elijah Cohn and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt to grow Ben, have coach Jordan, can't throw Charlotte Landis, Carol, Gellaby, David, goals, me, Calvin Ryan, Young and Naomi single.
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