814. What Will Putin do Next After the Apparent Provocation Against NATO?

Keir Giles has spent his career watching, studying, and explaining Russia. Keir’s work has appeared in a wide range of academic and military publications across Europe and in North America, and he is a regular contributor and commentator on Russian affairs for international print and broadcast media. He works with the Conflict Studies Research Centre (CSRC), a group of deep subject matter experts on Eurasian security formerly attached to the British Ministry of Defence. He is a regular contributor to research projects on Russian security issues in the U.S., UK, and Europe.----------SILICON CURTAIN FILM FUNDRAISER - A project to make a documentary film in Ukraine, to raise awareness of Ukraine's struggle and in supporting a team running aid convoys to Ukraine's frontline towns.https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras----------DESCRIPTION:Analyzing Russian Drone Incursions in Poland: Intentional Act or Accident?In this episode, we delve into the recent incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace, a significant event post-World War II. The discussion examines the implications of such actions, including NATO's response and the invocation of Article Four. Our expert guest provides insights into the potential motivations behind Russia's actions, the role of Belarus, and the complexities of electronic warfare. We also explore the broader context of Russia's provocations against Western resolve, the potential for escalatory steps, and the future of NATO's response strategy. This episode offers a comprehensive look at the geopolitical tensions and the strategic calculations involved.----------CHAPTERS: 00:00 Introduction and Guest Background00:54 Recent Drone Incursion in Poland02:17 NATO's Response and Article Four04:24 Kremlin Signaling and Intent12:17 Electronic Warfare and Drone Behavior16:02 Potential Escalation and Western Response20:30 Belarus' Role and Sanctions22:53 Conclusion and Final Thoughts----------BOOKS:Who Will Defend Europe? An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent (2024)Order Keir's new book: https://amzn.to/4cFI1b6Russia's War on Everybody: And What it Means for You (2022)Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West (2019)The Turning Point for Russian Foreign Policy (2017)The State of the NATO-Russia Reset (2011)Potential Challenges to Public Order and Social Stability in the Russian Federation (2011)----------LINKS:Order Keir's new book: https://amzn.to/4cFI1b6https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-people/keir-gileshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Gileshttps://www.linkedin.com/in/keir-giles-499a489/----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtain----------TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:Save Ukrainehttps://www.saveukraineua.org/Superhumans - Hospital for war traumashttps://superhumans.com/en/UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukrainehttps://unbroken.org.ua/Come Back Alivehttps://savelife.in.ua/en/Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchenhttps://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraineUNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyyhttps://u24.gov.ua/Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundationhttps://prytulafoundation.org----------