941. 凯恩斯的预言:为何我们依然忙碌 episode artwork

EPISODE · Jun 28, 2026 · 18 MIN

941. 凯恩斯的预言:为何我们依然忙碌

from 知为谁 · host 知为谁

这篇文章探讨了经济学家凯恩斯在1930年做出的著名预言,他当时认为随着生产力的提高,后代每周仅需工作15小时。然而,通过采访凯恩斯的后辈以及分析现代数据,文章揭示了这一构想并未实现,许多人甚至面临过度劳累的问题。专家指出,凯恩斯低估了人类的竞争天性,以及高薪酬反而让人们更难舍弃工作时间去休息。具有讽刺意味的是,凯恩斯本人也是一个典型的执着于工作的人,甚至因操劳过度而损害了健康。这一案例说明了即使是天才的经济预测,也往往难以准确衡量复杂的人类欲望与社会行为。内容来源:https://www.npr.org/2015/08/13/432122637/keynes-predicted-we-would-be-working-15-hour-weeks-why-was-he-so-wrong

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