A fragile ceasefire: What next for economies and markets?

The latest Weekly Briefing covers the global outlook, financial markets and energy. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the ceasefire in the Middle East means for growth and inflation, how quickly the world economy could recover if it holds, and what happens if fighting resumes.James Reilly, a Senior Economist on our Markets team, joins to run through updated forecasts for equities and bonds, why markets have held up relatively well, and why the stock market highs expected before the war now look out of reach.Plus, in an exclusive clip from a recent client briefing, our Climate & Commodities team explain why restoring oil supply is not as simple as flicking a switch, and the constraints on refined product output.Related Iran conflict: Global macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflictWatch: How the Middle East conflict has changed the price outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-how-middle-east-conflict-has-changed-price-outlookMapping the next stage of the AI rallyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/mapping-next-stage-ai-rallyGet trial access: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/solutions/subscription-products#trial-request