A Headline Yield Is Not a Liability Curve — Fri 31 Jul 2026

A headline yield is not a liability curve. Over three sessions the 10-year Treasury yield rose 7bp with the published real yield unchanged at 2.41%, while the 30-year rose 12bp with 6 of them real. One move, two decompositions - and neither of them prices a sterling pension promise. A US Treasury move is not the ASC 715 corporate discount curve, and it is not a gilt curve. We also carry a correction on the record. An earlier version of this analysis paired a 30-year nominal move with a 10-year real yield, and wrongly suggested the real half of Chair Warsh's intermeeting characterisation was absent from the data. Over the 42-day window he actually described, the 10-year real yield rose 18bp and the 30-year real rose 25bp. His statement was fully supported. And a null result worth publishing: we tested whether a sharp 2s30s steepening predicts the 10-year real yield. 24 of 42 comparable episodes since 2003 saw a 10bp or greater rise within 20 sessions - 57.1%, against an unconditional base rate of 50.3%. A 6.8 percentage point lift, inside its own confidence interval. There is no usable signal, and we say so. Also: three UK pension risk-transfer announcements totalling GBP 538m; a rare disclosed buy-out price comparison; the multi-employer collective money-purchase regime taking effect; the Bank of England 6-3 and the Bank of Japan 8-1. Full edition, with sources: https://www.universalassetowners.com/intelligence/daily-2026-07-31-headline-yield-liability-curve/