A random walk down bond street

Nearly two and a half years after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kicked off a massive increase in interest rates, in a bid to combat surging inflation of course, global bond markets now appears to be heading in a new direction. It is widely believed that the Fed will start cutting interest rates this month at its policy-setting meeting on 18 September. The CME FedWatch tool shows that futures markets are pricing in about a 65% chance of a 25 basis-point cut, while the probability of a more aggressive 50 basis-point cut is around 35%. To show how expectations have shifted: a month ago the market was expecting only a 4% chance of a 50 basis-point cut. However, following a weaker-than-expected American jobs report showing unemployment rising to 4.3% in July, recession fears have begun to surface. The August report drops this Friday. So, there are still a few unknowns about, including what this all means for bonds going forward. So here to help us make sense of it all, we are joined by Morningstar South Africa’s head of investments, Sean Neethling. Listen to our conversation below.