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EPISODE · Jul 14, 2025 · 1H 9M

A Resource Curse for AI?

from Justified Posteriors · host Andrey Fradkin and Seth Benzell

In this episode of Justified Posteriors, we tackle the provocative essay “The Intelligence Curse” by Luke Drago and Rudolf Laine. What if AI is less like a productivity booster and more like oil in a failed state? Drawing from economics, political theory, and dystopian sci-fi, we explore the analogy between AI-driven automation and the classic resource curse.* [00:03:30] Introducing The Intelligence Curse – A speculative essay that blends LessWrong rationalism, macroeconomic theory, and political pessimism.* [00:07:55] Running through the six economic mechanisms behind the curse, including volatility, Dutch disease, and institutional decay.* [00:13:10] Prior #1: Will AI-enabled automation make elites less responsive to ordinary people by 2050?* [00:21:00] Prior #2: Will we get a new social contract (e.g., large-scale UBI or constitutional change) by 2050? * [00:26:31] Chapter-by-chapter breakdown.* [00:43:50] What about property rights? Can they insulate us from AI-induced tyranny? Or will they be eroded in the name of efficiency?* [00:46:01] Critiques* [00:52:00] Policy "solutions":* [01:04:44] Final posteriors and Seth’s economic-philosophical reflections: Can immortality + perfect patience = AI capital monopolies?Mentioned in the Episode📖 “The Intelligence Curse” by Luke Drago and Rudolf Laine📚 I Have No Mouth and I Must Scream📚 There Is No Antimemetics Division📚 The Naked Sun by Isaac Asimov🎮 90s point-and-click horror game based on “I Have No Mouth...”📈 Sachs & Warner (1995) and Frankel (2012) on the resource curse.🔁 The Gatsby Curve📽️ Gattaca, 1984, Gulliver’s TravelsSupport the show: Please like, share, subscribe! Get full access to Justified Posteriors at empiricrafting.substack.com/subscribe

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This episode was published on July 14, 2025.

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