Hello Roy here. I just wanted to let you know that you can listen to the Roy Green Show ad-free on Amazon music included with Prime. The They've been doing everything to sabotage and obstruct efforts to get a deal. So eventually when a deal was agreed in principle Boris's deal and he thought he could get it through by the 31st of October, there was yet another attempt to make this impossible and the Parliament voted for it.
So in the end, despite the great reluctance of the Labour Party, which doesn't want an election, he managed to force one through because the Labour Party realised the way it was done with the support of the SMP and the Lib Dems that would be an election and they ended up voting for it anyway. So is the election really going to be another referendum on Brexit? There really are no other issues, right? Oh yeah, the Labour Party doesn't want to fight it on Brexit at all.
I mean, it's policy is so confused. Jeremy Corbyn is actually arguing, believe it or not, that if Labour wins power, he will negotiate a new deal with the European Union. And once they have a new deal, there will then be a referendum on that, in which the Labour Party will campaign against the deal he's just fixed up. I mean, you couldn't make it up.
How can you possibly expect a win? How can anybody expect a win without a gender? Well, he doesn't want to talk about Brexit. He'll talk about the NHS.
He'll talk about the cost of living. He'll talk about nationalising, various utilities. He'll talk about anything. But for the people of the UK, for the voter, this is going to be about Brexit.
This is going to be replayed. The sequel to the referendum, is it not? Well, yes, but he wants it to be a sequel to the 2017 General Election, where he did much better than expected that he didn't quite win. So let me ask you this.
If the Conservatives win, of course, Johnson wins, the election. I might say it's a majority government and he wins with that. Is it over? As far as Brexit is concerned, or will he continue to be heaving to and fro for the foreseeable future?
Yeah, if Boris gets the majority, then he will get his deal passed in Parliament, and it's already been agreed by the EU. Thereafter, there's a transition period for up to the end of next year, during which we're still really sort of more than in the European Union. After that, we're out. And during this transition period, the main objective is to negotiate a free trade treaty between the EU and Great Britain.
So there'll be lots of negotiations about that. And it's not 100% certain that they'll be able to do it within that time, in which case, and this is what worries opposition parties, Britain could crash out with no deal altogether. So, I mean, the deal of the signed is partly, I withdraw agreement and partly a political declaration leading up to the signing of a free trade treaty. But if that free trade treaty isn't signed, then presumably everything could be offered again.
But the second will continue at least up until the end of next year. What is your experience, in your sense, tell you it was going to happen as far as the election result in December is concerned? Well, anything could happen. I mean, the elections are inherently very unpredictable.
And partly, the Nigel Farage and his Brexit party are now threatening to come in and stand in every seat, which might take boats away from Boris and deprive them of the arrest of a majority. Mr. Trump is interviewing the election, backing Farage and criticizing Boris's deal. We don't know how this will play out.
I mean, Trump is just simply so unpopular here. And Farage isn't very popular either, but he may take enough boats away from Boris to screw up the election, because his party is running at somewhere between 5% and 10% of the boat. But we don't know whether that will go up or whether Boris will simply squeeze them into relevant election. Well, and Alan, we think we have challenges here.
I thank you so much, as always, for your time, and we're shedding some light on what's going to happen. We'll touch with you again before December. Thanks again for the time today. Thank you very much.
Hello, guys. Professor Alan Scu, Professor Emeritus, the London School of Economics, looking ahead to the December election of the UK and Brexit. If you want to hear more, subscribe to the Roy Green Show on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever, you find your favorites. And if you like what you hear, leave us a review and tell a friend.
I'm Roy Green. Have a great weekend.