A Tale of Two Russias: Views from Former Intelligence Officers

Four years into its war in Ukraine, Russia continues to escalate attacks on the Ukrainian population while also dialing up its hybrid campaign against Europe. In the last six weeks alone, Russia has sent military drones into Polish and Romanian airspace and fighter aircraft into Estonian airspace and has continued its influence operations in places like Moldova and Czechia. The Russian military threat appears to be growing: German intelligence has stated that Russia “will not shy away from a direct military confrontation with NATO,” and the European Commission proposed a roadmap to prepare Europe for war by 2030. Yet that is only one side of the story. Russia has not come close to an operational breakthrough in Ukraine, and its economy is increasingly strained. Ukraine has struck 21 of Russia’s 38 large oil refineries since the start of this year, disrupting as much as 40 percent of the country’s oil refining capacity. Gasoline prices in Russia have spiked nearly 10 percent. In many ways, this is a tale of two Russias: one that appears to be gathering itself to strike NATO and another slowly crumbling under the weight of the war and Western sanctions that show no sign of letting up. To help us evaluate these two paradigms and assess the Russian threat, Brussels Sprouts is pleased to welcome three former deputy national intelligence officers for Russia and Eurasia: Eric Ciaramella and Nate Reynolds, senior fellows with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Pete Schroeder, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security’s Transatlantic Security Program.