ACC Win Totals

The underdog is howling. Stay in for Steve and the bear. Oh yes, a home team getting points. What's better than that?

Welcome in ACC edition. Stay in for Steve and the Bear podcast. Bear, I'm sorry for last week going over to the time. We went over a lot of time.

I think it was the excitement of the SEC. Us getting back together. I got- That just means more. Correct.

So, Shwink, our guy behind the scenes. We got 60 minutes. That means we got 14 teams in the ACC and we got to throw in my eye. So, 15, you do the math.

If we go over a lot of times, like, 18, buzz the horn or just mute my mic and sorry for those teams. I will have- I do have to add last year, we didn't even get the pit and they won the conference. So, sorry about that pit fans. We will get to your Panthers.

Didn't I make like a snide comment or something? That was close. They're going to be 75-day. They're going to be 75-day.

They're going to be 75. You're good. It's a tough one. Rob G.

The esteemed Rob G is one of the great producers in ESPN history who's on Twitter. He tweeted something earlier today about it. With the NFL, he doesn't know where to begin and all he knows is the Jets are going to be bad. I said, actually, if you go into the year just knowing that the Jets are going to be bad and the Bears are going to be bad, you're on the right path.

So, you're off to a good start. That's an in-light of me calling base 75. Quick NFL shoot. I did get 10 to 1 on the Seahawks.

That's your NFL insider. Did you? I actually played the Bears attempt to have the best record. Especially only in light of the Rokwan Smith news yesterday.

So, who know they'll probably have to get 30 cents on the dollar on him? All right. Here's how I had this broken down. Looking at this last night, how are we going to do this?

We have five teams ranked in this coaches poll from the ACC, this preseason poll, and everybody can take it what they want with the poll. We did comfortable poll live yesterday, and I was asked at the end of the year, will there be more teams? I kind of said, push. I thought these five teams, when you talk about Clemson, Wake Forest, Miami, Pitt, and...

I think those teams are in their own tier compared to the other teams. I think the other teams are in their own... I think they have a lot more work to do. Now, there's a lot of potential there.

So, I put Florida State in that category, Louisville, BC, North Carolina, is a team that a lot of people like. So, let's start at the top. Let's do Wake Forest, understood the news today, Sam Hartman, out indefinitely. And then Coach Colosson comes out after practice or in between sessions and says he will be back this year.

So, I did see a great nugget from David Hale, who said the last person to throw a touchdown pass was Gris other than Hartman. And that was in that opener, 2020. So... I thought it might have been Rusty LaRue.

Oh, Riley Skinner. So, Wake Forest, unbelievable season last year. What Clausen has done, Bear, I give you all the credit in the world. You've been on this team for years, it seems.

Like, ever since Clausen took over, you were on their season, win total overs. I have seen... I saw eight, and then this morning I've seen everything at seven. Your take on the Demon Deacons.

Yeah, of course, I'm the horrible individual who immediately, when I woke up this morning and saw the news logged in, I was able to get over the place and... ...fandrel and draft Kings had taken it down and there was another site that had... ...eight and a half that my buddy had access to that guy took an under eight and a half and then my friend at the sugar house had reposted it at seven. But of course, I was able to get like $6 on the over seven.

So, I was looking for a nice middle there on seven and eight, but I'll have to figure out another way to try and get that. But seven, I think, is probably the bear. By the offense, I believe this is still going to be a very good team. But I wouldn't go...

I wouldn't go over seven if like, just to play it or under seven is to play. But when it was eight and a half, then I was really considering taking the under. You weren't okay. Yeah, I was.

Defensively, I think it was a team that's going to be really bad once again. Can they outsource certain teams? And you look at some of the wins they had last year, field ball wins over Louisville and Syracuse and NC State. Like, those are those are pretty ridiculous army game where they couldn't get a stop and neither could army.

So, like, are those results going to really manifest themselves this year? But they were definitely on my list of teams to play under. I agree with everything you said. I was just going through the schedule again from my notes that I did earlier in the week.

And I had them three and I'll go and host the Clemson. And obviously, I had Clemson winning that game. And then when you go after that, now you got a road game. Are you going to have Harvard back at Florida State?

That's a toss-up game to me. And that's what I had to say. Win with Harvard. And I don't know if they beat army this year.

I just feel like having an army having another crack at this team. I like the idea of that defensively and seeing that size at why receiver. They got great talent there. Obviously, AT was unbelievable.

Go getter and Donovan Green comes back. Green missed all last year. So, they lost Chris to Beale Smith to South Carolina. It was a great running back.

Hartman did throw 14 picks. And when I looked at how the hell they made it work, the defense was bad, but they forced 29 turnovers. And that was the best in the conference and the fifth best in the NCAA. I don't think they could be better than they were last year.

Obviously, this news really, really hurts them. Knowing what he controls in that offense. And then I thought he had a chance to break Tatch Boys record for ACC Touchdown passes, which Tatch has 107. He needed 35.

He threw 39 last year. So, really unfortunate news. I do expect them to be coached up. Closet does a great job.

But it's a stay away for me with the team. So, that's your team. And Deacons take Go-Deeks. Love the mascot.

Next up in that tier, I have the Pit Panthers. And we know they're going to run the football more this year. I'll just say that with Signeti and Arduzi doing his thing at Media Day and just having that Pat and Arduzi mad, mad, mad, mad character to himself. But I really like what I've read so far on this team.

I didn't realize they had to spend guys back. I think Slova stepped into a great situation because I'll say this. I know they lost Addison and Pickett obviously got drafted. But I think Addison really benefited from the other talent that Pickett had to throw to.

They had really good guys. And all those guys are coming back. Jared Waynes back. Mumford, the transfer from Akron.

He was a freshman all American. Jalen Barden is another guy. And the running back I love Izzy. I think they're going to be a problem on offense.

All seven offensive line linemen who started a game last year are back. And we know the great year that they had last year. And the D line, we'll get the Clemson in what I think of that D line. This defensive line is a problem.

And I call Jay Kansy, first team all ACC, 7 sacks, 13 sacks. 13 TFLs last year. Three secondary guys return. And just watching some tape and going back.

I the creativity, Narduzi has in that defense of blitzing on third downs. Like the FLX sometimes a broke eyes off the sideline. With quarterbacks looking around like where the hell did that guy come from? So they ranked second in the country in Saxburg game.

I think that's going to continue really, really interesting start to the season. Backyard ball is back. Oh guys, we'll be there right for that game. I get to go to that game as Sports Center with Van Pelt follows that game.

And then they went to Tennessee in one last year. And that's the game in Tennessee. Found Hooker. We talked about a little bit about that last week.

I think Pete gets Tennessee again. So I think there's six and oh going to Louisville who's a team will get to and they got to be six to know, I think to go over eight and a half. I'm willing to take that chance. I really like this team.

They're not afraid of anybody. And that's comes from Narduzi. So I'll take over eight and a half a pit. Well, you know, Narduzi's going to have the right answer.

Everything that went on in the off season. And that's fine. If you need any additional motivation that you can bring to yourself and your team is always a good thing. But I mean, you didn't even talk about the defense.

So I see a dash. So what led the team attack was the last couple of years. I mean, he'll be a big part of the defense again as they lose a ton of linebackers. But you just have to trust that they'll figure out if that position was how well Narduzi calls the defense.

I guess the one thing that you have to worry about is will he make some type of in game coaching decision that's going to give you a very negative. Evie, basically. He's known to kick some field goals and put down fourth down and do some things and not really maximize the chance of winning. And without a historically great offense with picket and Addison, maybe that catches them in a game this year.

But I would mean to you if I had to play it, I would play the over because I think, well, like you said, the front end of that schedule, we really don't know what way West Virginia is going to go this year. They can go either way. You know, Tennessee is going to be out for motivation, for giving up all those points at home last year and losing that type of game. But it wouldn't necessarily be one of my places.

I think the little ones he's taking from the road will be tough. But if they can get through there, six and two, you'd have to like their chances. Yeah. And that's what I just, that the veteran things they have and guys up front on both sides of scrimmage really are enticing to me, knowing what Narduzi wants to do on both sides of the ball.

So really excited for pit football again and really fired up for that opener that first Thursday night. All right. Next up, Miami, eight and a half. Go.

Well, it's hard. I think you're, I think they are a year away from being a, what should content on businesses. And it's hard because you got the quarterback this year. You don't know if he's going to be back next year.

Their biggest issue is they're going to need someone to step up and make plays at wide receiver. I mean, Mallory the tight end is obviously a great, a great tight end. You bring in Frank Ladson who they've been lacking a big, tall physical wide receiver type threat. But I think they're hoping Ladson who leaves Clemson can be that guy.

I mean, Restrepo is that, that Barrio type of guy sloshed, you make, make catches, but they're going to need some players to step up and make plays on the perimeter. Because look, I mean, we can have a conversation about that scored back in the ACCC. We will score it back. But if you look at what Tyler Van Dyke did last year over the end of the regular season, what was the six straight games with over 300 passing yards and three or better.

You go back in the college football playoff era. The only other player to do that was Joe Burrow, the year that LSU won the national championship and he won the highest in trophy in 2019. So he was putting on historic numbers and really winning games that Miami may be necessarily getting deserved to win, whether it was the NC State game or whatever else pick game, Georgia Tech, a lot of close wins there before they finally lost a close one to the Knowles. But it's hard for me to go over for Miami because you have to assume you're going to lose in A&M, you're going to lose Clemson.

So like you don't have, it's still eight and a half you have middle room for one more loss, whether that's Florida State, like whether that's North Carolina. And so if you can get over in a half, you have to think like 93 is pretty. You get Virginia transition year, Virginia Tech, and Virginia transition year, Duke is terrible, middle Tennessee is terrible. Southern Miss, even though a lot of people think they could be a sleeper in that league this year, they shouldn't come to South Florida and win.

So if you had to play it, I'd be looking over what's the ACC one total. Have you seen that? I have not. Chris Andrews sent me all this stuff.

So I should just try and go back and find this email really quickly. Okay. Why don't you think I'll go look at the seat now? Got it.

I got plenty on the Kings. I really like this team. I absolutely love what Krista Ball did in hiring a staff and assembling a staff. And that is Alex Maribol, Joe Saloveo was one of the best players I ever played against.

Is it an absolute machine as a coach? One of the scariest dudes just flat out. I mean, he will have that D line ready to go. Charlie Strong, Kevin Smith, unbelievable recruiter.

So I love that. Now, you mentioned our doozy in game. That's my problem with Krista Ball is in game. He scares me with some decisions in really crucial times and it cost him to cost Oregon some games when he was there.

But you mentioned Van Dyke and yes, the good was really good. And I went in and looked at the way he did in the wins and what he did in the losses and it's a lot on him. Nineteen PDs and one pick in the six wins and the three losses, six touchdowns, five picks. So they lost 17 players whether it's portal graduation, they brought 11 in.

They did average 34 with Lashley calling the players last year and here's where I see the improvement. They averaged 440 or 420 yards per game, but they had the worst rush yards per carry per rush at 3.69. That's where they're going to be better. Krista Ball is awesome with offensive lineman.

Maribol's awesome with offensive lineman. They got the big tackles, Zion Nelson, who's an NFL player. They got the four guys that returned in the old line. They got Jalen Knight and who's a great running back.

They also got Henry Parrish from Ole Miss. The run game is going to be so much better and that's why I think Van Dyke's going to really, really be better. Whether it's decision making, being put in better throwing situations. And I may sound crazy.

I think they could go to A&M and win. I think they got the goods to do it because they're going to be able to run the football on a really young A&M defensive line. So I don't think that's a definite win for A&M. I think Miami's going to have the goods to compete there.

And I like over eight and a half with the games. The SEC went total six, by the way, which is what you would think it is. So you used to lose Clemson and probably won more. So that's probably a pretty solid number.

But I agree. There's room for me. Look at the losses last year. The Virginia loss.

I mean, the North Carolina lose field goal in Florida State. They weren't in it like despite all the shortcomings that they had on defense last year and the U.S. quarterback. They were very close to putting it together.

So I think what you mentioned is the biggest thing moving forward. The staff that Mary was put together and even maybe more important. The athletic director, Dan Radikovic, Clemson, highly respected. I mean, bringing him back to South Florida South Florida guy is a massive deal.

And I think you're going to see the the the best is very quickly. I was talking about that A&M game with a Reese Davis and Kirk and the game day producers. I said for the Miami A&M game, we need to do like some tongue in cheek, NIL piece of it. You talk about two schools that I don't know.

Anyone has like more. I want to say ridiculous, but more ridiculous. And I'll news a catch to it. Those two schools.

So we get my balance of fun with that. Before we move on, there are a couple things going on at ESPN that we want to mention. First, ESPN in partnership with Peyton Manning's Omaha Productions presents always college football with ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy. With off seasons being a thing of the past, Greg McElroy goes year round with analysis, opinions and insight on top teams and under the radar stories from coast to coast.

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So you can hit the ground running. Bring it with SAP Grow, AI Cloud ERP for any size business. Alright, so let's go to Clemson 10 and a half and two new coordinators. Dabo, I feel like it's the first time because Vanderbilt's been there forever.

And Tony Elliott, obviously is taking our own Virginia who we'll get to. Friends, Streeters, the new OC. We know the struggles that we had last year. To me, looking at the tape, I just, the over throws and the wide throws and the under throws.

It was just not pretty. It was, and to me, I just, you always hear about the receivers that they brought in, this five star and this four star. You know, I think about a guy like Joseph and God, is it time? Is this a deal?

So I love the running backs. I love Shipley. I really love MAFA. So they got 37 players coming back and starting experience.

They can't be worse than they were offensively. I mean, the defensive line is the best unit in all of the sport in my opinion. The talent of those four guys and the versatility they have and the athleticism and just all the overall goods. They are going to be a factor in every single game and they will dominate every single game in my opinion.

I lean towards the over with Clemson. I do as well. I mean, I don't know if there may be a more, I make me polarized against the right word, but like, are we sure they're going to bounce back to what they were? Or are we, are we, we, we always shouldn't be.

Do we know what people remember what DJ did against BC and against Notre Dame in 2020? It's great. And then last year, as bad as you thought, Clemson's offense was, it was worse. Yes.

They went from, I think it was 8.1 yards per drop back in, in 20, in 2019 to eight yards per drop back in 2020. And then five and a half last year, like DJ's QBR was 54th at a 65 qualified quarterbacks and power five. Like it was terrible. And I think you, I'm glad you mentioned the wide receivers because they, I mentioned how Lajson was one of the bigger wide receivers at Miami needed.

Like Clemson, I think he's kind of gotten away from the, the Renfro type guy, the snap guy that really makes their offense go. And all these big five starts physical big recruits guys on the outside haven't necessarily been the best fit for that offense. So you know, Davo as well as I do. I think he is quietly right now salivating and just waiting for the end of the year.

Brin Vettel's done. Tony, I thought, oh, that was way too good. And he is waiting and dying to say, I told you so. So it would not, how much better can the offense be?

It could be a good bit better. But how much does it really need to be better in order to win the ACC and reach the college football playoff? Because as bad as it was last year for Clemson, it's terrible year. It's not one of one in 10 games.

And there's real losses were by a touchdown on pick six and the opening game of the year, the team that won the national championship championship. And over time, an NCC and then to the team that won the league in pick. So like, they're still that close to getting back to what is seven straight ACC championship game and is seven three college football playoff. I think you just have to trust Clemson.

I probably play them a plus money to reach the college football playoff. I think they're on plus one 50 or so and where they're going to start the year and the rankings and the polls. I would take my chances that bit. Agree, the schedule, they should be three and no out going away for us.

You know, that's obviously different now than they get NC State and they're at Florida State and then they're at Notre Dame, I believe, or is another name go there. That would be the only game they're not favored by more than a bunch of. So they end the year with three home games at Louisville, Miami and South Carolina, obviously. There's just so much love that defense.

I mean, they just got gangbusters up there, man. They are so good and they disrupt everything. And you mentioned, you know, they didn't even have her C last year and that deal. That's why they were in those games is because of that group up front.

That's how dominant they are. So expect big things from Clemson for sure this year. All right. That last team in that upper tier is a team that I feel like they're your and or not.

And that's the wolf pack and it's NC State and it's Dave Doren. And I'll just go first here and just say, when I look at this team and I look how mad they were and listen, everything that happened with games. They go a little too far series, a series and the bowl game, like a fan, sir. Don't bring the cultural series.

That one really hurt. So I really think like you talk about Dabo, you know, what and approve. I think this team has the ultimate bad taste in their mouth because they could have been the second team ever to win 10 games or double digit games in school history with that. They got that.

They were really geared up for that. And I looked at that as an opportunity for them to play out West and play back to school and really prove something. And, you know, Doren's gone, you know, at the NFL draft, he said he's got the best quarterback in the country. I mean, people have opinions there.

But what you can't argue is what he's built there, man. Like they've got a really good run going there. They're there. They're only behind Clemson and ACC wins the last five years with 39.

There's only eight power five teams of one more games in the last couple of years. They have 14 players drafted the last four years. And then when you look at last year, one point loss at Miami, three point loss away forest. I really like the how this team and the turn on the professing circle.

Correct. Oh, yeah, that one. So the running back situation wasn't starting. Yeah.

Oh, yeah. Okay. Yep. So they'll figure the running back situation.

I'm not worried about that. They obviously got to replace the left tackle who was drafted high, but they have guys there. They got fourth to fifth year guys at tight ends in the defense. I want to say I have it right here.

You know, the defense 88% of the production is back from last year. And you get guys back from the play last year. Yeah. That's it.

Yeah. And Wilson who missed all last year. He was an all-electric player in 1920. They have 15 or 16 top tackles back.

They got the all-time leader in school in points in their kicker, Chris Dunne back. They're at Clemson and they end the year at Louisville at North Carolina. They had the fewest players into the portal in the ACC that talks about the culture to me that he's built there. I really liked this team.

I think double digit wins is the ceiling. I go right in half with the Wolf back. Yeah, they are certainly the R and R. not.

I like the way you put that. I think this is a lightning rod team because there's some programs that just kind of are what they are. And that's the kind of the moniker that I think people have within C State. Like it doesn't matter who they have on the field or who they have on the sideline.

Like you know, like nine and four is what they're going to be joking about that like with pit last year. I would say this about the running game. I would be a little bit concerned losing the coin losing the best off on sublimin from last year, got on the top 10 in the NFL draft running back to the head. They really struggled to run the football.

And are you and you look at the numbers passing as well. Like, are you going to get Devin Leary having time to make proper decisions with what 35 to 5 touchdown to your section ratio like you had like that Clemson game is so fit. Well, before we get to the Clemson game, that opening game against NC State, at East Carolina, that game stinks out loud. Like that has upset trap potential written all over it because you know, my view is building that team and you know our guy, Holt May others is back and again, and in state team in Greenville, like I don't know what I think that number is like 11 or 12 right now.

I'm guessing it's going to hit 13 13 and a half because there's so much hype about NC State this year. I can really see myself week one getting behind the pirates plus the points in week one, even though it will be a look, I think the NC State defense is legit. And I mentioned the returning production and I mentioned what's going on about it. But if you look at the numbers that they had top of T national in the 3.5 percentage, third down defense and points allowed per draw so they're getting teams off the field.

So like, which is the goal of defense teams off the field. And those are three pre relevance. Yeah. So I think that I think they are legit.

I think they are good. But I do think going to Clemson is going to be tough after what happened last year. I think going in that two games stretch at the end of the year, Louisville and UNC, I think it'd be very, very tough and they could wind up dropping both of those teams because I'm a lot higher on both of those two teams than I think a lot of people are. Okay, good.

Let's get to those other teams. The rest of the conference I talked about, I think those teams who could play their way up to those teams. Let's just start at the bottom. The Dookiees, Mike Elko, the overall season went total three.

It doesn't look too great. The quarterback transferred out the best by receivers once UCLA, new whole, you know, brand new coaching staff, the schedule seems kind of brutal. I will say I have this worked out. They play Virginia Tech late in the year.

I will have the under in that game. Just tell you that. I don't see many points being scored. Defense lasted yards per game, 517 lasting yards per play.

They gave up 7.1 yards per play and they gave up 40 again. I can't take the overall to. What will the projected spread be in the game at Georgia Tech? They're basically over under a half to win an ACC conference game.

You can play under and then they get it there. They're a dog, I would think. Yes. I have my powers as a preview here.

Wow. He's got the red power. He has Georgia Tech an 11 point. I was going to say seven.

Don't you just play Duke under a half ACC wins and then the only game that they potentially could win, I think, is is Georgia Tech and you take them on the money line as a double digit dog? Yeah. Oh, I know over as minus 160, by the way. So like, yeah, you have to pay for it a little bit, but I consider going up winless ACC once again.

Okay. They're 117 last three years or 117 last three years. So gosh, look at them. 38 31 48 45 54 48 62 47.

Wow. I mean, that's a combination of absolutely quitting and your defense absolutely sinking with a 44 out of 40 game 40 game. Put me down for Duke when let's see. Okay.

Speaking of bad games, Tennessee's Georgia Tech got out and scored 100 and nothing in their last two games. Now it was noted a name and it was Georgia. Big year Collins made a bunch of moves, 12 players left, stating uncertainty in the program. Three coaches fired five assistants left.

I'm searching the program. That's a good way. Yeah. That was the quote used.

I forgot where I read that. Maybe the athletic when I looked at the Georgia Tech stuff, Jeff Sims back 57% for his career, 25 touchdown is 20 picks. See if it got to be the guy though. Like he might not even be the guy.

Yeah. I mean, they got three quarterback guys there and I figured it was to help him chip along to those seen now, Chris Wankie is a quarterback coach. And now Jim Cheney is in there as a special assistant to that coach and no one would change his own office. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. He said Atlanta. I don't even think he moved out of Athens.

I was going to say we need like the, uh, the Jolie Donne like, uh, like SEC coaching tree with, uh, with Jim Cheney and so I mean, like that, those coaching branches, um, uh, the coach Davis in there too. Uh, three years, uh, under Collins, they finished 124th 95th and 95th in scoring. Uh, the only team that allowed more points than them per game. Obviously it was Duke, they love, uh, 40 and Georgia Tech 33.

They're not being Clemson. They're not being Ole Miss. They're not being pit and they're not being Georgia. So that leads, you got to win six of these eight Western Carolina at UCF, Duke, UVA, at Florida State, averaging attack, Miami and at Carolina.

I don't see it. Uh, I've already played, I've already played under three and a half plus. Okay. Like this is, this is a schedule that gets you co-fired, like the non-conference schedule is, is, is Ole Miss UCF, like, and Georgia, that's your non-conference.

Like you're not winning any of those three games. And then you've got Clemson and the rest of the, like, I don't know who you're being. So I took Georgia, I took Georgia Tech under three and a half. Uh, and plus money in the SEC, one total is two.

Who are you beating outside of, outside of Duke? Um, I think, tech Virginia Tech is possibly. Okay. So are you going to win three?

No. Are you going to win three to beat me? No. I'm not even playing the under two wins in the SEC on tech.

Okay. I feel pretty good. I feel good about under three and a half, um, plus money for season. All right.

Let's go to Tallahassee, Florida State, Mike Norvell, uh, brutal start to the season last year, owned four, and then they won five to seven. They got, they got back on their feet. Uh, the defense got improved. They had a bowl game on the line and went to Gainesville and lost.

And now it's four straight losing seasons. Five years, they've had three different head coaches, eight coordinators. They only have eight seniors on this whole team. Uh, they got a lot of youth that's played a lot of football now in Tallahassee.

It feels like Travis is, is the guy, um, after he's played, I don't know, I, I, where is it? He started 14 games over two years. Uh, the running backs, I think, are not an issue. The biggest problem with Florida State and what it's been is the offensive line.

There are 114th and sacks allowed, 97th and tackles for loss allowed. They haven't finished better than 95th and sacks allowed per game since 2015. So that right there tells me how bad it's been. Uh, I do, that's a, that's a 20 plus year running problem.

It seems like, yeah, three transfers at receiver. I like a lot, my commitment from Oregon, Johnny Wilson and DuSpan. Uh, they also have six of their top seven pass catchers. Uh, but nobody had more than 25 catches.

Uh, so that just tells you about the youth, I think the defense is going to be interesting because I look at how they improved last year and then what they have returning. And then they got this kid Jared verse who was a, uh, all American from all, uh, FCS, all American from Albany. And they got him from watching film when they were playing Syracuse and Albany played Syracuse. And this kid is a serious pass rusher.

I think he's going to help him a ton. Um, defense coordinator, Adam Fuller thinks that they got three, got three safeties that are NFL players. They obviously lose, uh, the big time pass rusher, uh, last year. I, I like the improvement.

I think Norville deserves another shot. The number six and a half. I don't think they could get the seven to schedules tough and it's in, and they get to cane before LSU, which I think is important. But when you look at the road games, it's I consider LSU a road game because it's into New Orleans, at Louisville, at New, at Louisville, Adams, you stay at Miami and at Syracuse, I think is a tricky deal.

So, um, I, I, I, I like when I read everything and then I went to the schedule, I just, I couldn't get there. Uh, so it's a lean to the under for me on floor state. Yeah. I would probably lean that way too, because I think you're going to be one and two after the, after the other two, but at the same time, then you get, then you get, I mean, it's almost like they have a group of games, like I was the Louisville lost loss.

You see Wake Forest, winning, who knows what the same partner situation will be then. And she's day Clemson lost loss, and then yeah, I don't have any strong opinions one way or another. Yeah. On, on Florida say, all I know is that, that they're still kind of building this culture back up after running off and running off so many guys and bringing kids back.

So, I mean, I think there's more reason for optimism in terms of their being an improved product this year on the field. So, I agree. And that's why I think they're a tough Bob because I think they're, they're definitely going to be a better football team. I just don't think the record is going to show it.

If that makes sense to you. All right. Let's get to your Louisville Cardinals. You've seen very, very high on Scott Satterfield's bunch.

He's in his fourth year. He's 18 and 19 there. I believe he started out with an eight and five season. The number is six and a half.

I'll let you take care of the Cardinals. Yeah. That's good because I got it back at five and a half. So, I mean, obviously, I can't, like, count and say better, better because five and a half is no longer out there.

But six and a half, it doesn't allow, it doesn't allow your boy to try and get that baby to land on six. So, I'll do a lot of the shot. Very good possibility that happens, by the way. But go ahead.

Yeah. Like that is the, that is number. I just think offensively that I think they're going to be fine. I think bringing in some guys via the portal, I think will ultimately help them.

And again, like we've talked about with certain teams, like 10 to defense be this bad again. Like, I think they have an opportunity to, to win some games. You start off to one the road, you'll probably split it best at worst there. Yeah.

And then South Florida, Florida State, I think you should win both of those games. I think you're three and one at worst. And then you get BC and Virginia, which you're probably better than both of those teams. No doubt.

Probably split. James Madison should be a win. Like, it's hard for me to say go over six and a half. Being that I had five and a half, obviously, I was anticipating six wins as kind of a bare minimum.

But six and a half is a much difficult, much more difficult number. So, I still think that this has the potential to be a seven and five type team. But I certainly understand those who would be hesitant in going over six and a half. Yeah.

To me, it's at Satterfield. I get it. They were mounted on them for exploring other options. He's still a damn good football coach, in my opinion.

And Louisville's just one of those schools. I think it's like West Virginia. I think the portal sort of at first hurt. And now they're starting to figure it out.

They got this kid who's FCS All-American from Central Arkansas, Tyler Hudson, 6 to 197. He supposedly is fantastic. And obviously, they lost Harold to Alabama. He averaged 29 yards per catch last year.

That's incredible to me. So, I look, I think they're the same as Florida State. I think they're going to be so much better than they were last year. But the start of the season is they have to win at Syracuse.

And I just don't like that matchup because Syracuse is going to run the ball and try and shorten a game. Whereas Louisville is going to want to go up and down the field. And you mentioned the defense. They get 10 starters back, but they're 83rd in total defense 88th and yards per play and 77th in scoring D.

So, it's, it's tough. They will be better. He expects improvement on D from what I'm reading. I would hope so.

So, I really think that six is a real possibility. I do think they go to a bowl game. I can't touch the over there with Louisville. New from Espresso.

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Bring it with SAP Grow. AI Cloud ERB for any size business. The other team that I mentioned that I'm a lot higher on. I think a lot of people, it looks Carolina.

Okay. And then I, I, last year we talked and I think a lot of people dealt that offensive might have been a little bit vulnerable last year. And I just, I landed on the wrong team. I landed on Carolina instead of it.

Um, again, these things was terrible. They were so bad upfront on both sides of the ball. Um, protecting Sanhal, getting pressure, tackling linebackers were terrible. I think bringing in chis will give Mac Brown a little bit of a, familiarity.

I think he'll be, he'll be better off with someone he's familiar with on the defensive coordinator. Josh Downs is still a dangerous, dangerous player. I think you can't help up be better upfront on both sides of all. You can't help but commit viewer penalties.

So, I think this might be a situation where you're catching North Carolina at the right time. It's a great bilo opportunity. Maybe people were a year ahead on the Tar Heels because of all the hype around Sam Al last year. They've recruited unbelievably well.

And we've talked about, uh, I can't remember, oh, with Clemson, the losses as crappy as everything went for them last year. You'll lose to Pit by a touchdown. You'll lose to NC State by four. You'll lose to Virginia Tech in a weird opening game in a Friday night by a by a touchdown like there, there were winnable games for them.

You put forth a good offensive effort against Notre Dame and couldn't get it done. So, like, I think there are pieces there for NC State for North Carolina. I think they'll be better defensively. And you'll look at the schedule.

You don't get, you don't get Clemson, you get NC State at home, and you get Notre Dame at home earlier in the year. Now, look, why Mac Brown or whatever the idea is, schedule a non-conference game at Appalachian State is crazy. You're walking into a, you're basically volunteering to be upset scheduling that game. And then you're playing Georgia State, we've seen them beat some teams in the past as well.

Like, that's why I actually played North Carolina. I got them like 21 to win the ACC. Just because you look at the ACC schedule, it shakes out pretty well for them. I think they've done well against Miami.

So, like, go into Miami, it's not going to scare them. Like, hosting NC State off of the lot, that'll be a good thing for them. So, if you're looking at like win totals or throw those down, take those non-conference games out of the equation by just sticking with an ACC only win total or to win the ACC. Remember, you get to the ACC championship game and you're holding 21 and you're going to be maybe a double digit under dollar to Clemson.

If Clemson turns out to get it turned around again, you're in a position to do some things by the way. Oh, by the way, we were in the bottom of the third at City Field, 6-0. Yep. New York.

New York. New York. New York. New York.

The Mets may not lose another game this year. Stop. Thanks for your yanks. Great base running last night.

Stay until 2.45 in the morning to watch that. By the way, by the way, by the way, I am Yankee fan, but I am so excited about the Mets. Honest, I'm being dead serious here. Like, they're the best team in New York.

Like, seeing DeCromb that's healthy now and Max doing his thing in Lindor. Like, I was so bummed that they couldn't pull off a deal for Soto, but like, I love Buck. But like, I'm like really, really, really like, I'm all in on the Mets with you man. I hope they get it done.

I do too. Because I'm so down on the Yankees. Like, Brian Canton, you know, why would you want to put together a deal for for Louis Castillo when you can go out and get Frankie Montes? I'm disappointed that he didn't try and go out and just get hosted in Canada as well as well.

Sure, that's staff. I mean, I mean, no one, no one, no one talks a big game and delivers less than what the Yankees run off as his own. He's just trying to find. Okay.

Back to North Carolina. I love your point about staying away from, because I'll just say this, with the season wind total, I can't play over because of those two road games. Those are awful. And then you get Notre Dame after that.

So I love your idea of playing them to win the ACC or go over and ACC wins. I love that play because I cannot stay on those two road games. And I think it's a tough deal, especially because you are going to play both quarterbacks in those games. You're going to be in a dog fight in both of those games.

They lost Antoine Green for six to 10 weeks, but they love this freshman Andre Green. They also have George Pedway. So I'm not worried about the skill guys. They've recruited as well.

You said it as anybody, I would say what Clemson and if you throw a Notre Dame still and recruit as much as them. So I'm fired up. It's a stay away from me, but I can understand. And I don't know, I always room for Mac and I think coaches back in the mix.

He is the ultimate communicator. That's all I can think of. When I talk to him, when I think about him and his defense will be communicating better this year. I will guarantee that.

All right, for the first time in a while, I will not be taking Boston College over. The brutal injury, offensive line, all American Christian mahogany. He was the first rounder for sure. Jacobic hasn't proven he could finish a season.

Wasn't right when he came back. I give him a lot of credit to try and come back. I do like to run him backs. They just, I feel like Zafelowers will be doubled a lot.

And I don't know if they have other difference makers. Really fired up for McNulty, the new offense coordinator, who was Notre Dame, tight end coach. The defense, I thought held it together when they had so many injuries. So it's, I just don't think they have, he's recruiting better, but I don't think they have the difference makers they need to win.

When you talk about going on the road, you know, and playing at NC State, at Notre Dame, at Wake Forest, at Florida State, I think it's a tough one. And then early on, they got Rutgers at home in at Virginia Tech to start the year. Those are circumstances where I think it's going to be tough to win. So I lean under on Boston College.

Another team that I think, it's a big year, I believe, for Dino Babers at Syracuse, at least some changes on the edges, made some changes on the offensive staff. Yeah, I'll bring in Robert and I and those guys from Virginia who became available. I don't know where to, where ultimately to land on this. Probably a conference went total of three.

I mean, you'll look at those games, I think it's going to be hard for them to win four. I think three is probably, ultimately, you can probably play over and then it may come down to that Boston College, Jamie. You should, you know, I mean, Virginia Louisville at home, Florida State at home, though, those are all winnable. And then you get FBC.

So I think I can see myself playing a lot of unders with the steam. I think the defensive lead will be okay. I think they kind of wore down a little bit late, like offensively as well with Tucker and all the carries piling up and Schrader and his ability to run. I can remember the last time I really dove in and watched Syracuse football was that probably an idea against Liberty when I had him at home, where Malik Willis was a high-end runner and Liberty was going to go to the New Year's six and all that stuff.

So yeah, I think I was probably the last time I actually gave Syracuse football a real strong work. I can see them being involved in a lot of lower scoring type games this year. Agreed. Had their over last year that hit very early, I want to say I think it was only three and they got the five and seven last year.

Here's the problem with their schedule. They don't get to play Duke or Georgia Tech. That's tough. And you got a tricky, you know, home game against Purdue.

I don't, you know, I like what I'm reading about Purdue. The opener is huge. If you want to go over on the win total, Louisville, I'd like to match up for Syracuse there. You mentioned all the additions offensively.

Straight up. Good luck by the way. I just noticed this too with the information schedule for three weeks. And she said, no game.

You kidding me? Yeah. And then Florida State at Wake, so four and a half. I would lean under there just because I think they're going to be limited on offense when you look at those defenses they have to play.

And I get their defense a lot of credit. They came and second behind Clemson in average sacks per game. They only gave up 330 yards per game and 26 points per game. So the defense was there.

I think you're made a good point with that offense being a little fatigued and worn out at the end of the year. So tough stretch ahead for the cues. Virginia Tech, new coach Brett Prey, six years of Penn State, and James Franklin. Their number is six.

And I just, when I look at the roster, especially on the offensive side, I don't like what I've seen. Permise or transfer to San Diego State, plenty of opinions on him. But they bring in Grant Wells from Marshall. And as good as the numbers that look, you know, 5600 yards, 34 touchdowns in his two years there, I look at the turnovers he had playing in conference USA.

And now he's going up against way better talent. You know, the defense is going to be better with Prey. They have to get back back to that lunch pail mentality. I just don't think they have difference makers on offense.

And it's a stay away from me. I will look to bet unders in their games for sure. Because I know Prey will get that defense going with his ability to get after the quarterback, or he's just four guys, five guys, six guys, whatever. So I think they could go over.

But I can't play it because of uncertainty on offense. And I'm not really that big of a Grant Wells fan. He did bring in Joe Rudolph as a old Wisconsin offensive line coach to try and help with the offensive line play. So the textures are a stay away from me.

Yeah, stay away from me. I do think Grant Riley will be is a type of hire that I think will resonate well amongst the Virginia Tech fan base. He feels like a lunch pail, a hard nose blue collar type hire that kind of represents what that program has been built on. So it may not reap dividends this year, but but I think you're going to see an effort level much higher than what you saw at times in the last couple of years from the from the office.

I'll just say this. I look at the schedule. If they could win, if they can win three of the first four old Dominion. I don't know why you're doing that.