Accuracy & Coherence

Branden Fitelson (Rutgers University) gives a talk at the MCMP Workshop on Bayesian Methods in Philosophy titled "Accuracy & Coherence". Abstract: In this talk, I will explore a new way of thinking about the relationship between accuracy norms and coherence norms in epistemology (generally). In the first part of the talk, I will apply the basic ideas to qualitative judgments (belief and disbelief). This will lead to an interesting coherence norm for qualitative judgments (but one which is weaker than classical deductive consistency). In the second part of the talk, I will explain how the approach can be applied to comparative confidence judgments. Again, this will lead to coherence norms that are weaker than classical (comparative probabilistic) coherence norms. Along the way, I will explain how evidential norms can come into conflict with even the weaker coherence norms suggested by our approach.