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The Ultimate Draft Kit is live right now, and it is still being updated. In fact, this thing will be updated to the point of NFL Kickoffs. Get ready for your Draft, sleepers, breakouts, busts a bunch of tools on here to help you make the best decisions you can make for your fantasy football team, getting on the action right now, UltimateDraftKit.com. I'm caught up on the Hard Knocks as well, the Offseason.
Okay. I think it's way better than the regular one. See? I'm so much more interested in all the Offseason transactions.
But we're the nerds. Right, yeah. So I'm some of the people listening to this show. Yeah, I understand the mainstream.
I don't... We'll see if they get enough numbers to keep this going. I mean, they're going for it, because it's the... Is it the Bears?
Yeah. And then, did I hear an in-season... I think there's an in-season Hard Knocks too. Which, there has been.
There's been an in-season Hard Knocks. Yeah, there's been an in-season Hard Knocks. Really? With your Arizona Cardinals were the first year.
Oh, I remember that Hard Knocks. I was thinking of Flight Plan. But that's our local thing. Yeah, there's local things everywhere.
The point was, there's too much Hard Knocks. This season, in-season, they're going to follow an entire division. Oh, yeah. Which we already covered on the Divisional Breakdown.
The AFC North. Okay. So they're going to cover multiple teams this year on the end season one, which will be interesting. But I've enjoyed that receiver show.
I know a lot of people watch the quarterback show. And I'll pop a Josh here watching that as well. But I mean, it's fun. You get to know players.
You get to know the personalities and what makes them go. So it's been a good time. Today, we're talking through the AFC West. Which I believe if the Chiefs win it for two more years, they do have to rename the division after the Chiefs.
Right. If it's 10 years, right? If you do 10 straight. 10 is naming rights.
How many years was the Patriots? 150. You talk about the Patriots division? Yes, I am talking about the Patriots division.
Yeah, I think it was 13 for what it's worth. But at the top, before we jump in, we got some news to talk about. I'll go, unfortunately. The UK, Mike, mention it.
Ultimate Draftkit.com available right now. Go check that out. And if you are near the LA area or the United States or I don't know the Northern Hemisphere, just like wherever there's an airport. The 10th anniversary Megalar Show, our live event is Saturday, August 24th at the Palace Theatre.
You can get tickets to come see the live show. We're also going to do after the show is over, which that will be a podcast episode. So you'll be a part of a live episode. And then right after the live show, those that are there will enjoy a half hour to an hour AMA with Brooks will be back in the building.
So Brooks will be hosting that and you can get tickets at ballerslive.com. That is going to be super fun. We were at that venue last year and it was a great time. I wanted to do a quick question, but we got to talk about news.
News and notes from around the league. Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison was arrested on Friday on suspicion of driving under the influence. Last summer, he was guilty to a misdemeanor speeding charge where he was driving 140 miles an hour. Not good.
This year he was driving zero miles an hour and sold out on the freeway passed out in front of his, allegedly passed out on the freeway. Now he's been arrested. Now he has no signs of Vikings memorabilia on his Instagram. Yeah, I mean, it's a real knucklehead type of move a couple days after losing a rookie teammate to a drunk driving incident.
As far as how this affects fantasy football, oftentimes with these cases that will let the entire legal procedure play out and then the suspension. So it would potentially be the following season assuming that he is guilty. But there, I think the fact that he had a driving incident last off season, the, like there's really been a couple big spotlights on the NFL because of driving incidents recently, including the Henry Ruggs. I don't even have a catastrophe.
I couldn't find the right word. So the fact that we're now on number a second strike here for Addison, it may, they might come in early with the suspension, but yeah, Jason's right. They usually wait, but now like, now it is up in the air of he could miss a handful of games to start. Yeah.
So the legal proceedings will have to take place. We don't know if Addison would be pleading earlier or whether it's a long process. Just don't know a whole lot, but that has happened. Keaton Mitchell was placed on the PUP to start training camp.
As expected. Yeah. And then T. He goes to not reach an extension by the deadline.
As expected. He will be a free agent next year. He's going to play on the franchise tag. I believe he's already signed that, right?
So he's he's not going to be back in the sense of that. Correct. That would be really, really surprising if they find a way to keep him in 25. It is one of the reasons why I think Jermaine Burton is really interesting.
All right. Any other news that we need to discuss? No, sir. With the season approaching so quickly, Jason, does he, has given you time to kind of sit back and reflect on my title and legal record?
Yes. I even thought one moment. Really? Not even like I hear many people are thinking about it.
I'm still not thinking about it right now as you're bringing it up. I think you are. It's not deep down. Not even rolling around in there.
Mike's thinking. Has that given you time to think and reflect of my dynasty championship? What dynasty championship? Okay.
Okay. You did take a vacation those last three days. I'm assuming to kind of forget about it for a little while. But you didn't quite hit all the spots with the suntan laws.
No, my back. I've got two wings. You got the devil's wings on my back. There's just like the, you know, the haunches.
I don't know what you call them. I think you think everything's a hunch. That's what I think. But there is.
It's towards the back, right? You have to understand the 12 parts of his body as his hunch is over the years. How many hunchs you got? Yeah, and they're very bright red.
That's a new nickname. Just little wings. Just two spots. It was a spray areas, right?
Yeah, I think I just. You need a phone, a friend. Yeah, you know what I mean? For the hunchs.
It's said that the sunblock is a team sport. Yeah. Like I thought I knew what it was, but I wanted to make sure which is a buttock and thought I could say it's together. So you were talking about.
That's what I thought. I knew it. He's talking about his tricep butts. He's talking about way up where his shoulder blades are.
Also known as Jason's hunchies. No, my back butt. That's what I'm talking about my upper back butt. I thought he's been using different body parts for this.
You like that word? I do like that word. It's a good word. When it's, you know, when it's thick, that's a hunch.
Oh boy. I guess we have to move on. Let's get divisional. All right.
We are in the AFC West. This is our final AFC divisional breakdown. And we'll look at players, coaches, rookies, offensive situations, how things can function for the upcoming year. Don't look at the show doc, neither.
Okay. Okay. Well, I'm aware of this because second place was the Las Vegas Raiders where they losing record and you go, well, the Raiders are so, so bad last year. They had to fire their coach and they were second place.
That's how bad that division was. But they were eight nine. They didn't feel like an eight and 19. You're saying it felt worse than that?
Yeah. Yeah. I think both of the dysfunction. They got it.
They got it going. Yes. If you remember over the back half, both the Broncos and the Raiders had such calamitous beginnings to the season that you didn't remember that they actually were getting things going a little bit at the end of the, at the end of the season for both teams. The Raiders eight nine Broncos eight nine charges were five and 12 chiefs of one, this division eight straight seasons, six with my homes and they had two with Alex Smith, the two prior years to my homes existing.
So it is their division. They've owned it for a while. They were 11 and six. That was a bit of a surprising year for them.
They had some ups and downs. And when we look at Kansas City, we've seen the adjustment in the way the offenses function. Jason, you've spent the off season talking all about Isaiah, but check it. I think, you know, this is a team that I expect to bounce back to scoring more points.
However, not all the way back to where they were when they had terrible defenses. Their defense is legit. And they just want to Super Bowl in the back of a great defense and like the number one points per game defense. Exactly.
That seems pretty. Okay. And so, you know, you're not going to need to score 40 and you're, and when you've got to check out and a strong offensive line as one of your best weapons, you're, you're just going to run the clock out at the end of the game. It's going to be easy.
I mean, just because you have homes doesn't mean you have to use him downfield. He really didn't go downfield this last year. Only five of their games at the over. So there weren't the shootouts of days of old.
And so that was an adjustment. Now you went into your rankings. I know so far this offseason, Jason, you're very high on Patrick Mahomes. They added Hollywood Brown.
They added Xavier Worthy, first round draft pick Hollywood coming over from Arizona one-year deal. No more MBS. No more Jared McKinnon. Don't know how long it'll be without Rashi Rice.
Yep. That's still up in the air. And then obviously we've got Travis Kelsi signed a new deal. Obviously I got that done for him.
He's on my dynasty team still working on a couple more guys. Yeah, good work. How do you see, you know, they're going for three in a row. Do we see some balancing here?
I think you've still got obviously a great offense here. They're the Super Bowl chance. I want to read to you their points per game over the Mahomes era. Okay.
In 2018, they were scoring 35 points a game. That's out landishly high for an entire season. However, since that point, 28.2 points per game, 29.6, 28.2, 29.2. So they're always at the 28.29 points per game as a team.
And this past season, they were down at 21.8 points per game. We felt that in fantasy football. We felt that with Mahomes especially the second half of last year. And while I don't necessarily think I was just saying they're defenses better, they're going to be able to run the ball more.
I think they will be, you know, they'll land in the middle there. Their points should go up this season. And I think that most of the players on the Chiefs are a little undervalued right now. I think they're going to beat their current projections or their projections based on ADP.
Same exact win total as last year, 11 and a half going into this season. Just pretty massive. What are we thinking, Mike, about the emergence of the rookie? Xavier, where everyone wants the higher upside targets for playing Mahomes?
I kind of wanted to start the conversation with with Rashid Rice, which the legal situation is as of talking right now, it is still all up in the air. And we like, we have no idea what the suspension is going to be, right? It could be. What is the high end that we'd have heard?
I can't remember from Davenport. He probably ate. So it's like anywhere from one to eight, which that's a huge variance. But right now going as the wide receiver 39 and like before all of this, if Rashid Rice were heading, he had a clean off season was heading into the draft this year, he's probably a what?
Why does he have 15? So I'd say like a third round pick or so right around there. So there at this point, if you wanted to take on the risk, like why does he have a 39? It is really, really baked in there.
Like that maybe the suspension comes in and it's four games and you're waiting just four games for a guy who really, really turned it on there at the end of the season when he became the primary guy. Yeah, he's not a he's not like an elite route runner, but he was an elite yards after catch guy, you know, only one of his touchdowns came from further than 11 yards out. And he just they were utilizing him in his yards for route run is at a place that is very exciting. So I think that's the, what is your appetite right now for, for with his suspension and where he is going?
Let's have that conversation. Let's have the conversation that let's go outside the suspension because let's pretend it's four, three, two, whatever, go outside of that scope because I'm telling you, if it's two or three games, the conversation about Xavier, where they is completely different. I agree. And so let's pretend they're all on the field.
Right. That recipe because Kelsey's still going to be your premium target. Rashid Rice, they utilized him in a ton of different ways. They brought back my whole hardman.
Xavier worthy is there Hollywood Brown is there, Justin Watson is still there, right? Yep. And I think it's just for all these guys that you saw, Rachie Rice get the pitches around the goal line and the end of rounds in the little plays. I guess I'm just wondering how you would make the suspension is making it more difficult to analyze everything, which obviously is, but just because you're never looking at it as one big picture.
Right. And you know, it takes some of these wide receivers like even Rushy Rice last year, took them some time to get used to the system and to be. Yeah, you got to earn the trust of my homes, get on the field, get in all those different snap packages. And so if he is there, I believe he's the clear number two target, Rachie Rice, Kelsey will be the number one target, Rachie Rice will be the number two target.
Then you have packages for Xavier worthy who I really am confident is going to work. I think he is going to work. I think he's going to have a successful career. All the metrics, my personal belief on the film, everything was good.
The only thing that was bad is he's a little bitty, baby boy. By good, do you mean a good NFL player or you think it will work for fantasy football? I mean that all the metrics that we care about for working for both fantasy football and the NFL, you know, breakout age, college, dominator, touchdown, shares, all those type of things, he pretty much checks almost all those boxes. So if he has a successful NFL wide receiver, Andy's with Andy Reed and he's with my homes, he's going to be decent for fantasy football.
Now this season, it's going to be a little bit harder because you've still got Kelsey stuck in the number one targets and he's a rookie. I can tell you real quick with my projections because right now I have him at 11 games, I just took the, I took the high and the low that we're hearing about suspension. So I took six games off. If I gave him a full season, he's in my top 20.
So like, and if it somehow comes out that it's only a four game or fewer suspension, there people will have gotten a huge fantasy discount. Is there any chance that it's pushed into 2025? I probably, I mean, NFL, sometimes they move quick, sometimes they move real slow. But this is this conversation, we haven't even really discussed Hollywood Brown, who I don't know how much he has left anyways.
But you know, if he's in that MBS role, whether you're going in on Rushy Rice or whether you think Xavier worthy is going to, you know, he's going to have his big plays, but maybe he won't be consistent and you got Hollywood there and you've got Kelsey, this is why I like Patrick Mahomes so much this year. He has significantly better weapons. Because you don't have to decide and you don't have to decide who it's going to be. You know, he's going to throw a ton of touchdowns and he's discounted from the past few seasons.
Hollywood's 27, just turned 27. He's been disappointing. That's an old 27. That's a field that way.
He just hasn't been good in a while. He hasn't been healthy as well. Yeah. I mean, the last time he played a full season in Baltimore, he was a top 24 wide receiver.
Arizona played 12 games and he played 14 games out of 17. And when he was on the field, I mean, he was clearly hampered by that heel. Yeah, for sure. I mean, if you look at the first five games before he got hurt last year, he would have been on pace for 85 for over a thousand in 10 touchdowns.
That's great. Which would have been, you know, a lot better. But I just wondered to see a dark horse in the whole equation. I think there's a chance, but I would put it very low odds.
If Rice is off the field and what we've seen of rookie acclimation in Kansas City holds true, I think Hollywood Browns first four or five weeks could be very interesting because where else is the ball going to go? You tell me where he's going to come in and day one, McCall Hartman. That's where it's like Rice looks like or not. So Hollywood looks like a sneaky start of the year.
I think you get just an absolute round table of the guys there. Like everyone's getting sent. That's what it's been. And then Kelsey, what are your expectations for, you know, he said he signed a two year deal in extension.
He's getting up there. They're going for three. He's going to have a worst season this year than he had last year. He felt really, really bad because it was the first time in however long that he wasn't the number one tied in.
He still has probably the best odds to be the number one tied in. It's just going to progressively slow down a little bit. But he's, you know, if you look at his, you know, his yards per out run, his average depth of target, his snap percentages, everything has come down a little bit, but he's still great. And right now he's at a discount from, you know, you were drafted him with the number five pick last year.
And now he's not even the first tight end off the board and the only scored five times. He had 12 touchdowns a year before. That's an area where like you could have a similar fantasy finish, even if his total stats production wise go down, but the touchdowns come up. Because do you believe in him still being a difference maker?
Pretty fancy. Yeah. At a onesie position. Yeah.
So then, okay. I think he'd be worth the draft then. Baltimore Cincinnati to start the year than Atlanta and LA on the road, but they're at home for the first two games. It's going to be a fun year to watch and see what happens with this offense with Andy Reid.
And back to Isaiah Pacheco, just halfway. Yeah, we should. He's being drafted as the running back 12. I'm with Jason.
I think that he is being under drafted at the running back 12 at the back of the third right now on sleeper over the second half of the season. He was seventh in running back red zone touches and he just he was seeing so much work. As of right now, Jerick Cannon is not back. That was a in games played.
McKinham was at about 7% target share. Like I think there is a world where Pacheco gets the like that huge that the Kareem Hunt sized workload. They won't be a complete and total run first team like some of the Kareem Hunt years, but just I think there's a chance that he is everything for this team. It is.
I think the reason is ADP is there is because there are people like me that has this. I have a weird hesitation giving him the push up into the upper echelon because it was, you know, he was 20 opportunities a game after the buy. We only got to see five games of that before the buy he was 17 opportunities and he wasn't the player that people hoped he was going to be fantasy wise before the buy week. So I have this like I think it's because it was such a small run.
Obviously the playoffs are involved and that is that's part of the picture, but because it wasn't a full season sample of that kind of a workload, obviously you guys are saying, hey, we're going to get there. Yeah, that's that's the bet that's being made is he going to become the real true like bell cow usage. I believe he is and should he receive that in this offense, he'll be great. I'm looking at I'm trying to look at the post season stats here.
I guess he was all right. He got a lot of work 24 for 89, 15 for 97 24 for 68, 18 for 59. So majority work. So there you go.
Let's take a quick break. Come back with more of the F.C. West. All right.
The Las Vegas Raiders has talked about him eight and nine started out three and five. If you're watching receiver in the Monte Adams, he was unhappy. He was as unhappy a person as we were fantasy managers of Devante Adam and then they went five and four with Antonio Pierce and they started hyper targeting Devante Adam. He is a really, really interesting conversation, in my opinion.
Adams. Yes, Adam. Yeah. I mean, you're you're talking about the alpha of alphas at the position who came there who had the famous comment about it's not just wins and losses.
I'm about greatness, which, you know, some people turned on him because of that comment. I'm probably not on that side when your offense was as bad as it was before the transition. You know, they have a great defense. Last year, there were 11th in points per game.
People need to associate the Raiders and a good defense. They need to associate those things in their minds when you think about them going into the year. If you believe that the Jets are going to have a competitive season, right? You're believing it on the back of that defense.
Yes, I know Aaron Rodgers. We hope he can be everything, but or why the Steelers, you believe the Steelers can have success. Well, last year they fought through horrible offensive play. Like the Raiders defense was elite over the back half of the year under Antonio Pierce.
And so they're going to be in the mix to be, you know, who's your second favorite team in this division right now? Are you handing it over to the five and twelve Chargers because of the head coaching change? Yeah. Well, I was that rhetorical?
No, it was real. I mean, I knew your answer ahead of time. Yeah, I don't think personnel wise, I mean, the Chargers defense for years to struggle. You've seen the maturation.
Max Crosby in this defense with Antonio Pierce. They bring him back. Yeah, I mean, the issue usually always in the NFL's quarterback. Who's your quarterback?
I'll bet on the quarterback over the defense, you know, I, you know, the Jets didn't do well last year with their unbelievable defense when they had no quarterback to them. So Gardner, you know quarterback? I think Gardner men, men, you know, Connell are absolutely not good enough to. They're not good enough to give me trust that they're going to have a magical season.
I don't think they've got the skill set and the tools to do it. They're they're they're going to make it a game. Colts were nine and eight last year. Right.
You're better defense in the calls set up a decent offense last year. I was like where not thinking magical season, but I would like realistically this offense. I think it's going to be a no-connel, but that's that could change, you know, very rapidly. But let's say it's a no-connel.
Are they a bottom 10 offense or they in the middle? Like where do you have them? Where do you think that could finish? Last year, there were 27th and points per game among Brian Hoyer, Jimmy Garoppolo and a no-connel.
I bring that up because of just some historical data that I've been trying to gather here. So over the past five years, guys who were drafted in the top 24, they end up finishing on a team with a bottom 10 offense. So like this is going into the year. What's it saying?
Running backs? These are wide receivers. Okay. So these are guys drafted top 24 ADP wide receivers.
Okay. And then at the end of the year, it ends up there on a bottom 10 offense. Okay. What percentage?
So the MLI hope he does. I hope he goes, I have no idea. I'm trying to figure this out because you're not giving me the number. Oh, you're setting up the number.
I'm setting up the table. How do you just omit it twice? No, no, no, I just want it's a little convoluted. So I want it to be understood what I'm saying.
Whoops. Draft the top 24, their offense finishes bottom 10. You have 23 players fit that category, seven succeeded. So basically saying that if you end up on a bottom 10 scoring offense, we already know that offense matters, but it matters more than you realize.
And I'm talking about meeting their ADP because last year, while the Monte Adams finished as the wide receiver 11, he was drafted as the wide receiver eight. Like that's when you're when you're drafted that high to finish three spots behind your ADP is a negative impact to your team. Well, people didn't. If you had a Monte Adams, it was not a great experience.
Yeah. Then there's consistent. He finished as the wide receiver 11 on the back of, you know, eight billion targets, but he still wasn't consistent. He's a CNR consistency rating.
The majority of his games were actually unhelpful. Obviously, you did have monstrous huge games and still looked the part. He's always open, but can he get a quarterback that could throw on the ball while he turns 32 years old. There's just enough yellow flags.
And obviously he's a great, great wide receiver. But when you're being drafted, you know, as a top 10 wide receiver, you so everybody else around you. It was, it was better, consistency wise after the departure of Josh McGaines. And at least with Devontae Adams, it wasn't a lack of capability.
It was a lack of, it was a lack of targeting and giving opportunities. I mean, he had a number of these games where I don't remember the Green Bay Packer game, where he was on Monday night football against, against the Packers. And hey, I had like one target in the first half of that game. It's like there's some unexcusable, like a five game stretch that it just went right in between where he got Josh McGaines fired, where he was on pace for a five game stretch for 60 catches and 600 yards in no touchdown.
But outside of that five game stretch, he was a lot more consistent over the course. I just think, you know, you saw the result of Antonio Pierce coming in and the targets were outrageous. Yeah, they're like 180, 190 target pace. So if you, if you tell me right now, you're getting 180 targets.
I don't care who's thrown in the football. He has a place high up in the wide receiver rank. Yeah. I mean, he finished as the wide receiver 11 last year.
He's got 180 targets, which it could happen. He should, he should be a low end wide receiver one. But when you're drafting these guys in that range, you're hoping that they've got the ability to, you know, move up into the, into the top five. I don't know that the quarterback play here in the touch.
He can do it. Specifically can make him a top five pick. Is he a somewhat safe, low and wide receiver one? Sure.
But that's not what I want to draft at that point that early in draft. Josh Jacobs is gone. They were 30 in rushing yards last year. The Raiders after a season after Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing yards.
They draft Brock Bowers. So they bring in a one of the highest most heralded young rookie tight ends. They bring in no other big name running backs. Alexander Madison is so upset at you right now.
No, he's not. No, he's just thrilled. He's got a job. He was happy to be called not like in that category.
Do I have to be the starter? No, no, no, no, no, no, yeah, yeah, I mean, I was, I love being the backup running back. So the, the, the keys are going to be Zemir White handed to Zemir White Alexander Madison. When you, when you say those two names and then you say two quarterbacks, that means you don't know which one's going to start, which means you have none as Madden would formerly say those that combination doesn't seem great.
No, you would expect them to be like Mike was saying it probably near a bottom 10 offense. They're not going to be one of the worst of the worst, but they're not going to be a top half. Give me your projected wind total. Do you know what it is?
My projected wind total. Do I rate it? Do you already know what Vegas has? No, I don't.
Do you Mike? I don't. Give me the number that you based on this conversation. I think it was there.
I would set their line at six and a half. Six and a half is the number, which is not a lot, not a lot. So it's a mere white. You know, Mike, you gave a stat about those wide receivers.
I mean, I have the same in the same stack. Oh, please say it differently though. No, the the Zach Moss. I don't know that number.
It's the here's the too long to read differently. Too long to read on the wide receiver status. If you're on a bottom 10 scoring offense, chances are you're not going to hit your 80 P if you're trying to talk to us. That was well said.
That was that given round of applause. That was my that was very, very people love it. That was so concise. I understand.
Yeah. Sometimes you got to give the numbers though. So people know what you're talking about. I mentioned the numbers for Zach Moss of like it's a manning of historically it should not work.
For Zach Moss, but he has all these things pointing of it should work for Zach Moss. Well, Zemir White is in a somewhat similar situation since 2014 running back drafted since 2014. 71 of them have finished at least once in the top 24, but only 11 of those 71. The first time they finished the top 24 came in year three, like it's these guys hit in year one or year two or they or they don't hit it all.
And then when you throw in his draft capital, it's it's nine. Hines. Yeah, I was going to say when you get the hits later, it's usually pass catching running back. Yeah.
Those are the ones that kind of surprise after a few years. You have the blue key outlier year where you you catch 60 pass. Exactly. And then you're white projects to be.
So you've got a you've got a guy who's getting great opportunity. You saw him in a four game stretch when he was given the opportunity last year be really, really good. He touched about 93 times and he was never worse than running back to for fantasy. But these things just don't work when you're a non elite running back who hasn't done it for a couple years in their career on a not great offense.
It just doesn't work for fantasy. He couldn't remind me more of Alexander Madison from last year coming into the season. You're the incumbent who was a star down coach Josh Jacobs. The team says we're good enough with the backup that had some success only when the incumbent was hurt.
Right. Same situation for both of them. And now you go into the season and ironically Alexander Madison comes in to be your backup slash who knows if he if it's committee, you know, it's just such a small sample last year on a team you don't have confidence in. So does that mean only Alexander Madison can work?
Like once the white goes down then Alexander the backup that goes in can actually have. Only can read checks out if they come in for someone. Exactly. So it would be best for a mirror.
If you put somebody else at the top of the depth. 100%. I don't really want to play around with this. This is the definition out on the quarterback and the wide receivers to correct.
Let's talk tight in because I know I know that a lot of people love Brock Bowers and I love them as a prospect. I don't think there's a great landing spot for him. Rookie tight ends despite Sam LaPorta last year. Don't usually do a lot.
And then you find him going to a team. They drafted best player available. They looked at their board and they said, wow, Brock Bowers fell to us. We're going to take him.
This was not a team that was like, we know how we can use Brock Bowers. You know, we're targeting him. We need him. They took Michael Mayer last year.
We're going to quote from the tight end coach of this team. He says, first things first, I tell our guys, they're going to earn their opportunities in the past game by blocking in the run game. That might be an old school mentality, but that's my approach. Tight ends are blockers first and then we can go make plays in the past game.
That's just the icing on the cake. Well, for fantasy football, that sucks. And I don't like you for building a team. That's dumb.
Take alignment. I think Brock Bowers will be fine as a rookie. But I don't think he's fine to top 10. Competing for top 10.
Yeah. But I don't think it's last year's all in Kinkay. Successful rookie season, not reliable enough. Lashes of greatness when opportunities present themselves mixed in with just the learning process of a tight end.
I think that that's what you'll see. I think you'll see. I would probably handicap it at six extremely fantasy relevant games. I think the Don Kinkay comp is great.
I really do. You've got a situation where you're coming in and you've got one dominant wide receiving option on the roster and you kind of already had a somewhat incumbent tight end on the roster. The problem is you don't have Josh Allen. You've got bad quarterback play.
He's not getting drafted appropriately. Brock Bowers, if you told me you could take him with your last pick to see what happens in the first few weeks, like you could have with like a l'aporta last year. Cool. But like he's going in the seventh round in the top 10 already.
Like if you think of ceiling inside in 10 or nine, which is what I'm saying, and you're drafting at nine, that's the worst pick you could make. That's the worst fantasy pick you could make. Because you won't pivot from a guy you drafted and you won't get what you want. He's a super talented player.
He's going to take some time and redraft. Don't draft him. Other discussions can't possibly come back to hurt me. No, never, never.
But yeah, the offensive line got downgraded by PFF over the course of the offseason as well. Michael Gallup's there, no more Hunter Renfro, whatever. Honestly, this conversation is not that this has not been a great exciting conversation. And I wanted to believe and I got I would throw one more thing out there because yes, Jacoby Myers was the fantasy wide receiver 24.
Like he had he was so awesome with Jimmy G. He was like he had a grip of like really good games. Sorry. You're just totally back out.
I mean, he's just their Tyler Boyd. That's the category for me for Jacoby Myers. If you can't if you can't like Devontae, you can't like Jacoby. Yeah.
And the rest I don't like Devontae's ADP problem. Jacoby's just Jacoby had a big difference. Once I OC took over and started, you know, it's Jimmy G went away. What we what we was AOC.
I don't know. You'll have to look up. I don't have that on the top off the top of my head. But what we saw is the targets really shifted away from the Kobe to Devontae Adams.
I think that is like the one comforting piece of Devontae Adams 62 for 705 was the numbers front for those last nine weeks for that was his pace for Jacoby Myers. Okay. Like 60 catches 700 something yards. Yeah.
I mean, I I like now you bring Brock Bowers into the equation. Yeah. I mean, I think that the Raiders have a personality now, you know, they you know, they're going to be this hard fought run the ball, play good defense. I think they could beat their Vegas win total, but for fantasy purposes, I just don't see a lot that I love here because when things are going to beat their ADPs, they're still not going to be League winners.
What was these Steelers record last year? Exactly. They were nine wins. Ten was it?
No. Was it? We talked about this or nine and eight, ten and seven. Yeah, they're ten and seven.
Oh, man. Did you enjoy starting any options there? No, really. Okay.
So that's what you're saying is maybe there. I'm going to go. The Broncos eight and nine last year didn't really feel that way either. They were five and four and one score games.
They had a projected wind total of eight and a half. What do you think they're projected? Wind total is now. I'm aware.
All right, Mike. Have you looked yet? No, let's go. So the Raiders were at six and a half.
I'll go seven and a half. Five and a half. Oh, they think they're worse. Well, they don't have rust anymore.
And so the quarterback position is in flux. It's a tough situation trying to compete in this division. Eight hardest strength to schedule according to Warren Sharp. Last year, they were one of the slower teams in the league.
Seventeenth and points per game. They still got to pay for us. So I think he's got 19% of their cap this year is going to a player not on the team, which just makes it hard. 19%.
Yeah, someone can check on that. That's what I believe is true. 67 million in total debt cap in 2024, the most in the NFL. And so it's one of those, one of those things where it's like, you know, where that hits you the most, it hits you with kind of your, your offensive lineman depth and you're, you're not signing guys to have the same level.
Suddenly, Jared Statham's the top of your depth shark. You know what I mean? Who is clearly the quarterback to right now. Is that the latest?
Well, it's just you're saying with the next. Yeah, yeah, with Bo Nix. Just Zach Wilson in was terrible. He got to the team and all the reports were like, Oh, you're talking about Zach Wilson.
But what about in the, you know, we're looking at JJ McCarthy and Minnesota. We're looking at Drake May in New England. Bo Nix is forgotten about. Well, when I'm, where is the Statham versus Nick competition going to be over the next few weeks?
I was reading a lot on this. Statham had the best camp so far. So he was in nothing was bad about Bo Nix. But obviously has an extra year in this offense.
So he should kind of have a lot of Nix, but they drafted Bo Nix. They drafted Bo Nix to be their future in the first round. And unlike someone like JJ McCarthy who wasn't even doing, you know, off the blind protections and has a handful of starts and is very young. Bo Nix is 24 years old.
He started an NCAA record 60 games. Like, if this guy can't come in and start week one, what are you, like, what are you doing? Well, but that could be detrimental to him. If you're projected to win five and a half games, that would be maybe the worst thing you could do to him is have him be the guy that brings you five and a half games versus giving him some time.
Perhaps, but I do think that the bonus will be starting week one. The expectation for most of the beat reporters is that he will be the week one starter and we just don't know how long it's going to go into training camp into preseason before that. You can't go from next to still. You can go from Statham to next.
So I'm going to cast my lot in that side of where they start. It might be two or three weeks. They're going to lose some ballgame. Yeah, but that's, that's, we'll know a lot in camp here soon.
So I just feel like Sean Payton is really going to want to install his guy as soon as possible and get him up to speed. He believes in him. Yeah. And I love Bo Nix.
I, you know, I'm so fascinated to see if it will work in the NFL because he's not the tools we guy. He's not the rocket arm. You know, it's a lot of, you just got a feeling about him. A lot of stuff made about.
Yeah. Just in your haunches deep in my haunches. Was, was he the most accurate QB last year? Yeah.
He said the NFL or the NCAA record was 77.4% completion rate. Now he did. Fact fact 100% of his fans were behind the line. I was going to say he did throw a lot of screens, uh, RPOs.
You know, so there's, there's people saying it's just a system, but still 77% is I've seen quarterbacks run a system where they're not allowed to throw the ball down the field and they still can't complete passes. Yeah. I just, it'll be very interesting here. They struggled so much last year.
Their defense struggled immensely. Don't forget the 70 point week when they gave up more points to what H and most of the you've ever seen in your entire life. That was a, that was a fun time. It kind of saturated their entire numbers for the year.
It did because if you look at the end of the season, um, you know, what, what their defense gave up, they gave up 27 points. They gave up nine points. They gave up, uh, seven points. They, they, they started locking it down a little bit towards the end.
Now we haven't even talked about the running back room or the wide receiver room, both which have huge question marks. Devontae Williams final year of his contract struggled last year career. Yo, uh, career low, 3.8 yards per touch was top to watch play football. So we had McGloughlin electric had the receptions.
They also had a ton of receptions because we're us either through it way down the field or he dumped it down to the, to either McGloughlin or Devontae or Smaju P-Rine who, which, I mean, that does seem to be Peyton system is in bone exit system. Yeah. So the, it's a very difficult back field to navigate. 80 P-wise people are not taking huge chances on this.
Javontae is the highest in the back of the eight, the running back 29. But there, there are lots because you have, Javontae, you have McGloughlin as a, feels like P-Rine is still there as a brand. Oh, he caught 50 passes. He's not going to be gone.
He liked P-Rine more. And then they, then they drafted Audrick estimate in the, in day three of the draft, who's he's more of a big body, like would take early down maybe goal and work, should he work in. But it's like, I think I don't want a piece of it. See, that's, that's the problem is I don't think anyone wants a piece of it.
But this, this is a back field. I think you should throw a dart or two at like in the back of the eight. So like the early nine, I mean, everything I have had this, this off season has been against Javontae Williams, but it's that's the only guard I throw. But what it, it's not impossible.
Another year returned from the ACL was awful, but he still currently has the job, which is a huge step in the recovery. Just walk through the logic of these four players. Williams is the only one worth taking the shot at. If he, if you take a shot on him and he's back, then you have a great player.
Right. If you take a shot on McLaughlin committee, estimate committee, P-Rine committee, those guys are not going to, there's no world where McLaughlin takes over a five-win team, a six-win team, and you're happy you have him every single week. That's my opinion. No, I think you are correct that the other guys would only be massive committee time share type of pieces.
The only way that it works out for one of the other guys is to little McLaughlin. If he were to become the pass catching back and have more of a James White-esque type of season, because they're down and they got to dump the ball down, he's catching four or five balls a game, that can work for fans. It's just hard with P-Rine catching 50 thinking he's not going to be that role. Yeah, I mean P-Rine, well, we'll see because I mean, if you look up some RJ P-Rine and just news, basically every single article is potential cap casualty.
So we'll see if he's on the roster. Thanks, Russ. You know who's selling their roster? Corlin Sutton plays football for the Broncos.
He's a wide receiver. Maybe you've heard of him. You know who's selling their roster? Tim Patrick is a wide receiver.
Do we need to call him something different this year to protect him? Because two years of Fireball Jones did not end well. Do you? Do we need to do the inverse nickname?
When someone's real big, she'd call him Lil. So do we need to call him something boring? Yeah, or just like Paul Perkins. We're going to a little Tim?
Yeah, maybe Lil Tim or like Brittle Bones Jones. Oh gosh, he said he's got a new number 12. This is a new me. Tim?
Oh, Timmy. We call him Tim. Oh, Timmy Patrick. Timmy Patrick.
OK, let's go get him. Let's keep him healthy, Timmy. Just wait. Lil Timmy, isn't that the guy from Lassie?
No, no, that's Christmas Carol. Christmas Carol with the crunch. Oh, no, it fits even better. So just in case this audio has the last time you know, last time you know, it's the last time you know, if this ever gets to Tim Patrick, we're this is for you.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. This is your Fireball Jones on the show. We want you to succeed. So so tiny Tim Patrick.