Afghan-Tajik border unrest, EU in Kazakhstan and Astana's LGBT panic

This week’s episode opens on the frontier of Afghanistan and Tajikistan, where two late-November attacks on Chinese workers killed five people and injured several others at a gold mine and road-building site.With both incidents allegedly involving fire from Afghan territory, almost no independent reporting, and only terse official statements to go on, the discussion probes what can be said with confidence: why the timing is so anomalous, how the violence cuts across Tajikistan’s cautious thaw with the Taliban, and what it might mean for China’s economic footprint and security demands in this hard-to-monitor borderland.The focus then shifts to European Council President António Costa’s first official visit to Kazakhstan, billed as a celebration of ten years of the EU-Kazakhstan Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. The rhetoric about strategic partnership, green corridors and critical minerals is familiar; the more concrete news is the launch of talks on Schengen visa facilitation. The conversation asks whether easier travel and more direct flights could do more for Europe’s influence in Kazakhstan than another round of investment promises.In the interview slot, Almaty-based human rights lawyer Tatiana Chernobil explains what is actually in Kazakhstan’s proposed “LGBT propaganda” amendments, and why the label itself is misleading.She describes how nine existing laws and the Code of Administrative Offences would be tightened to conflate “non-traditional sexual orientation” with paedophilia, extend fines and short jail terms to individuals and businesses, and empower rewarded “public assistants” to report supposed violations. Chernobil argues that the real target is not just LBGT visibility but information control more broadly, with a chilling effect on teachers, journalists, activists and ordinary users online, and an uncomfortable convergence between Kazakhstan’s legal trajectory, Russian pressure and a cautious, economically minded European response.LINKS* Statement from the Presidential Administration of Tajikistan on the post-attack security meeting - https://president.tj/event/news/54027* Official EU press release on António Costa’s visit to Kazakhstan - https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/12/04/press-statement-by-president-antonio-costa-following-his-meeting-with-president-of-kazakhstan-kassym-jomart-tokayev-in-astana/* Statement from the President of Kazakhstan’s office on the Costa visit - https://www.akorda.kz/ru/kasym-zhomart-tokaev-i-antoniu-koshta-vystupili-s-sovmestnym-zayavleniem-4114550* UN Human Rights Council statement on LGBT propaganda amendments - https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/11/kazakhstan-proposed-lgbt-propaganda-law-risks-institutionalising Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe