After Epic Fury: Central Asia’s balancing act

Operation Epic Fury has forced every government in Central Asia to signal where it stands. And just as importantly, how carefully it intends to stand there.We began this week’s CAPS Unlock podcast with the U.S.–Israeli military campaign against Iran and the varied responses across the five Central Asian republics. Tajikistan, the region’s only Persian-speaking state, issued unusually warm condolences toward Tehran, though notably via its embassy rather than the presidential press service. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan adopted more conventional diplomatic language, invoking dialogue and the UN Charter. Kazakhstan expressed solidarity with Jordan, Qatar and the UAE following Iranian retaliatory strikes and moved quickly to secure its nationals in Iran, including dozens of workers at a joint mining venture. Turkmenistan, which shares a long border with Iran, has remained publicly silent, a silence that reflects both exposure and constraint.We then turn to Russia’s decision to designate the Kazakhstan-focused outlet Respublika as a “foreign agent.” The move marks the first time Moscow has applied its domestic political labeling system to a media project centered on Kazakhstan. We discuss what this could mean in practice: whether Russia is testing Astana’s willingness to cooperate, whether this signals a broader attempt to extend Russian legal norms into the post-Soviet space, and how such designations may complicate media operations across borders.In this week’s interview, we speak with UK-based analyst Ora Lazic about her recent business position paper prepared ahead of the B5+1 meeting in Bishkek. Lazic challenges the idea of a critical minerals “gold rush.” While strategically important, the sector remains economically modest. She argues that Central Asia’s real task is institutional: modernising geological data, strengthening regulatory stability, building infrastructure along the Middle Corridor, and coordinating government-backed financing. If supply chain diversification away from China is serious, it will require sustained structural reform, not rhetoric.LINKSCritical Mineral Resources: Expanding Cooperation: Central Asia–United States Business Dialogues - https://www.cipe.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Critical-Mineral-Resources_B51-2026_en.pdfRespublika report on its inclusion in Russia’s list of “foreign agents” - https://respublika.kz.media/archives/157073 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe