Against All Odds – How Richemont, LVMH and Swatch Recovered in Q4 2025 – Episode 79

If you'd told Gabe and Asher on August 7th — the day the U.S. announced a 39% tariff on Switzerland — that the holding companies would close out 2025 with their watch businesses up, they wouldn't have believed it. But that's what happened. Richemont's watch division grew 7% year over year. Swatch Group posted 7.2%. LVMH's watches and jewelry held flat while fashion softened around it. The top line says remarkable resilience. The bottom line tells a more complicated story. Profits are largely flat. Currency and tariff drag is real. And the recovery is being driven by a strategic shift toward what Richemont and LVMH call "permanent luxury" — fewer watches, made at the higher end, with more specialized supply chains. That shift is a tale of two cities for suppliers: brutal under $10K, a quiet boon at the high end. Gabe and Asher dig into what it means for independents, why the Sellita movement Asher saw in Geneva shows how the market adapts, and whether the grand reorganization of the industry is creating a system that's harder for new brands to break into. The episode closes on Swatch Group, where ISS has backed activist Steven Wood for a board seat. Asher takes the hypothetical seat and lays out what he'd change: less obsession with covering price points, more focus on creative point of view, and real activation of the R&D and supplier capabilities Swatch already owns. Openwork is a weekly podcast about how the watch industry actually works. An unfiltered look behind the scenes — no press releases, no hype, and no sponsored takes. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology. Available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email [email protected].