AI Boom vs Dotcom: Macro Signals, CapEx Risks, and Investor Signposts

AI Boom vs Dotcom: Macro Signals, CapEx Risks, and Investor Signposts (Gino Rossi on Pizz-Spectives) Rob Pizzichetta (Mont Wealth) interviews Gino Rossi (Vestigo Investments) about markets, macro conditions, and parallels between the AI boom and the dotcom cycle. Rossi explains Vestigo’s 2024 launch, its intergenerational-wealth target investor, and a “discovery” approach focused on under-covered stocks, with performance sitting mid-pack versus peers but positive. Macro discussion highlights US manufacturing surveys turning positive while housing remains weak amid high 30-year mortgage rates and sticky inflation, creating a two-speed economy and uncertainty for the Fed. Rossi draws on a San Francisco Fed paper on dotcom booms/busts, noting CapEx is hard to interpret due to IT price deflation and that dotcom excess was concentrated in telco CapEx, which later collapsed. He argues today’s hyperscaler AI CapEx is massive, LLM economics may be low-margin, and investors should watch demand-side signposts, not just CapEx, and stay nimble. 00:00 Nimble Investor Mindset 00:25 Show Intro and Guest 01:06 Vestigo Fund Overview 02:10 Discovery Fund Approach 02:49 Performance and Positioning 04:05 Macro Setup and Agenda 05:41 US Manufacturing vs Housing 08:02 Rates Inflation Two-Speed Economy 10:11 Planning for AI Cycle 11:50 Dotcom Parallels and Volatility 16:13 CapEx Deflation and Telco Warning 19:01 Hyperscaler CapEx and LLM Economics 22:32 Productivity Adoption and Circular Revenue 24:34 Signposts and How to Position 27:38 Wrap Up and Next Steps