AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA

This is a guest post by ACX grantee Josh Morrison of 1DaySooner. AI superforecasters are coming. Within a few years, the average person will have the equivalent of a Nate Silver in their pocket, ready to predict whatever question they can think to ask it. Scott wrote: Savvy institutions will cede some of their strategic thinking to AI. Before starting a new project line, smart businesses will ask the superforecaster AIs how much money it will make (their investors will definitely be asking!) Smart political consultants will ask the superforecaster AIs about their candidates' chance of winning conditional on running this or that ad. The government isn't usually classified as a savvy institution, but we might hope that parts of it will seek AI forecaster advice. Probably defense analysts will include in their PowerPoint presentations some fact about how AI forecasters say their new fighter jet design is more likely to find a use case than some competing fighter jet design. I don't know anything about fighter jets, but I run an advocacy group that works on reforming clinical trials and the FDA, and I think cheap superforecasting could revolutionize our field. This is a guest post by ACX grantee Josh Morrison of 1DaySooner. AI superforecasters are coming. Within a few years, the average person will have the equivalent of a Nate Silver in their pocket, ready to predict whatever question they can think to ask it. Scott wrote: Savvy institutions will cede some of their strategic thinking to AI. Before starting a new project line, smart businesses will ask the superforecaster AIs how much money it will make (their investors will definitely be asking!) Smart political consultants will ask the superforecaster AIs about their candidates' chance of winning conditional on running this or that ad. The government isn't usually classified as a savvy institution, but we might hope that parts of it will seek AI forecaster advice. Probably defense analysts will include in their PowerPoint presentations some fact about how AI forecasters say their new fighter jet design is more likely to find a use case than some competing fighter jet design. I don't know anything about fighter jets, but I run an advocacy group that works on reforming clinical trials and the FDA, and I think cheap superforecasting could revolutionize our field. This is a guest post by ACX grantee Josh Morrison of 1DaySooner. AI superforecasters are coming. Within a few years, the average person will have the equivalent of a Nate Silver in their pocket, ready to predict whatever question they can think to ask it. Scott wrote: Savvy institutions will cede some of their strategic thinking to AI. Before starting a new project line, smart businesses will ask the superforecaster AIs how much money it will make (their investors will definitely be asking!) Smart political consultants will ask the superforecaster AIs about their candidates' chance of winning conditional on running this or that ad. The government isn't usually classified as a savvy institution, but we might hope that parts of it will seek AI forecaster advice. Probably defense analysts will include in their PowerPoint presentations some fact about how AI forecasters say their new fighter jet design is more likely to find a use case than some competing fighter jet design. I don't know anything about fighter jets, but I run an advocacy group that works on reforming clinical trials and the FDA, and I think cheap superforecasting could revolutionize our field. This is a guest post by ACX grantee Josh Morrison of 1DaySooner. AI superforecasters are coming. Within a few years, the average person will have the equivalent of a Nate Silver in their pocket, ready to predict whatever question they can think to ask it. Scott wrote: Savvy institutions will cede some of their strategic thinking to AI. Before starting a new project line, smart businesses will ask the superforecaster AIs how much money it will make (their investors will definitely be asking!) Smart political consultants will ask the superforecaster AIs about their candidates' chance of winning conditional on running this or that ad. The government isn't usually classified as a savvy institution, but we might hope that parts of it will seek AI forecaster advice. Probably defense analysts will include in their PowerPoint presentations some fact about how AI forecasters say their new fighter jet design is more likely to find a use case than some competing fighter jet design. I don't know anything about fighter jets, but I run an advocacy group that works on reforming clinical trials and the FDA, and I think cheap superforecasting could revolutionize our field. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-superforecasting-should-transform