Air Cargo Unpacked: Launch Episode | Geopolitical Chaos, CNY Outlook & IATA's 2026 Forecast

Co-hosted by award-winning journalist Mike King and air cargo veteran Neel Jones Shah (ex-Delta, United, Flexport) with exclusive TAC Index market intelligence and IATA's 2026 forecast from Brendan Sullivan, Global Head of Cargo. Welcome to the launch episode of Air Cargo Unpacked - your monthly deep dive into air freight markets, capacity dynamics, and what actually matters for people who buy air cargo services. This episode features exclusive data from the Baltic Exchange Air Freight Index, powered by TAC Index. In this episode: Geopolitical chaos and air cargo resilience - Why 2026 kicked off with unprecedented uncertainty, from Greenland tensions to trade wars, yet China posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus Chinese New Year 2026 impact - How CNY falling 2.5 weeks later than 2025 is impacting markets and what forwarders and carriers should expect in the lead-up and restart IATA's 2026 outlook - Brendan Sullivan identifies the three biggest headwinds (capacity constraints, regulatory complexity, economic uncertainty) and three opportunities (digitalization, e-commerce growth, agility as competitive advantage) E-commerce shifts post-de minimis - The reality behind Shein and Temu's strategy after US ended the $800 exemption, and where e-commerce flows are redirecting (hint: South America, Europe, Africa) MD-11 freighter crisis – with some 60 aircraft grounded, integrators are scrambling for replacement 767 and 747 capacity Exclusive TAC Index market data - Neil Wilson breaks down peak season performance, capacity constraints, Taiwan semiconductor boom, and why intra-Asia rates are up 23% year-on-year Capacity crunch reality - Why the aircraft delivery backlog means tight capacity, higher yields, and limited flexibility for shippers throughout 2026 Key themes: Air cargo thrives on chaos, but not all chaos is equal. This episode unpacks which disruptions benefit air freight and which threaten growth - plus what the data actually shows about where the market is heading. Links: TAC Index: https://www.tacindex.com Ontegos Cloud: https://www.ontegos.cloud/ Brought to you by Ontegos Cloud - the freight forwarder profitability specialist helping forwarders turn operational effort into economic control. Learn more at ontegoscloud.com Subscribe and follow for monthly market intelligence, exclusive data, and insights from the people shaping global air cargo.   Timestamps       00:00 Introduction & Welcome to Air Cargo Unpacked 00:30 Geopolitical Chaos: Greenland, Venezuela, Iran & the Red Sea 02:00 China's Record $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus Explained 04:00 E-commerce as a River: Finding Routes Despite Trade Wars 06:00 Does Air Cargo Thrive on Chaos? 08:00 End of De Minimis: Impact on Shein, Temu & E-commerce Volumes 11:00 2026 Vertical Focus: AI, Semiconductors & Taiwan Trade Deal 14:00 TAC Index Exclusive: Peak Season Analysis & Rate Trends 18:00 Taiwan Strength, MD-11 Groundings & Capacity Constraints 21:00 Chinese New Year Outlook: What to Expect in February 25:00 Aircraft Maintenance & The Aging Freighter Fleet 28:00 IATA's Brendan Sullivan: Top Headwinds & Opportunities for 2026