AI's 2030 Payoff Problem, the Economist Civil War, and IBM's Worst Day Ever

July 14, 2026: Goldman Sachs' warns that the real AI productivity payoff may not arrive until 2030 at the earliest, because companies are buying the technology faster than they are redesigning work. Then I get into the split among leading economists over whether AI needs new institutions and guardrails now, or whether early governance could slow progress. Finally, I look at IBM's major market shock and why it shows that even companies selling AI transformation can struggle when customer behavior changes faster than the organization can move.