Alex Shahidi: Commodity Producers, Inflation & the RPAR/UPAR Case | Lead-Lag Live

Alex Shahidi, Managing Principal and Co-CIO at Evoke Advisors and co-portfolio manager of the RPAR Risk Parity ETF and UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF, returns to Lead-Lag Live for the next single-topic risk-parity conversation — this one focused on commodity producers as the inflation-hedging equity sleeve inside a modern balanced portfolio. Alex makes the structural case for owning commodity producer equities rather than commodity futures — the tax efficiency, the equity risk premium layered on top of the commodity exposure, and the 50+ year track record of outperforming global equities by roughly 2% a year. He walks through how RPAR and UPAR construct the sleeve using the broad Morningstar Global Upstream Natural Resources Net Return Index (roughly a third energy, a third industrial and precious metals, a third agriculture), why diversification within the sleeve matters more than picking a single subsector, and why the diversification benefit shows up most when it's needed most — 2022 (equities down 18%, producers up 15%), Q1 2026 (equities down 3%, producers up 20%), and the 1970s (13%+ annualized for a full decade of stagflation). He also gets candid about the behavioral difficulty of holding this sleeve as a standalone position — the 20-30% higher volatility versus global equities, the extended stretches where it deviates significantly from the broader market, and why rebalancing across the risk-parity buckets is what actually captures the long-run edge. The conversation closes with the practical case for RPAR versus a traditional 60/40: what inflation looks like when you zoom out over 100 years, why "low and stable" is the abnormal regime rather than the normal one, and where inflation-linked bonds fit alongside the commodity producer sleeve. Topics covered: (00:00) Opening — another Lead-Lag Live single-topic risk-parity conversation with Alex Shahidi (00:30) Alex introduces Evoke Advisors, RPAR and UPAR, and the risk-parity framework (02:18) Why commodity producer equities instead of commodity futures — tax efficiency and the equity risk premium (04:13) Devil's advocate: are gold miners and other producers actually equities in disguise? (05:09) How the broad producer index is constructed — energy, metals, agriculture, and why diversification within the sleeve matters (06:07) Contango, backwardation, and why the futures path complicates the futures-based approach (07:27) Historical case study — 2022 (equities -18%, producers +15%) and Q1 2026 (equities -3%, producers +20%) (08:50) The 1970s parallel — 13%+ annualized during a decade of stagflation (10:10) Why correlation is a byproduct — divergence shows up when you need it most (12:05) The 55-year track record — 2% annualized outperformance vs global equities, liquid and tax efficient (13:32) Currency exposure and dollar sensitivity in the producer sleeve (14:27) The behavioral challenge — 20-30% more volatile than equities and the discipline required to hold it (17:40) Rebalancing as programmatic mean reversion — why trimming winners matters over full cycles (19:37) Making the case for RPAR versus a traditional 60/40 — the inflation-hedge gap (20:36) Zooming out — 100 years of inflation history and why "low and stable" is the abnormal regime (21:31) Where inflation-linked bonds fit alongside the producer sleeve in a full risk-parity framework About Evoke Advisors: Evoke Advisors is a large, independent registered investment advisor headquartered in Los Angeles, co-founded by Alex Shahidi. The firm co-portfolio-manages the RPAR Risk Parity ETF and the UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF, both built on the principle that a balanced portfolio should diversify across economic environments — not just across asset classes. Where to find Alex and Evoke: Website: evokeadvisors.com RPAR + UPAR ETFs: rparetf.com The Lead-Lag Report: leadlagreport.com Sponsored by Evoke Advisors: The RPAR Risk Parity ETF (RPAR) and UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF (UPAR) offer diversified, all-weather exposure across global equities, Treasuries, TIPS, gold, and commodity producers — engineered to balance risk across four economic environments. Learn more at rparetf.com. Important disclosures: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of any fund before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results. RPAR and UPAR are subject to market risk, interest rate risk, commodity risk, and other risks disclosed in the fund prospectus. Investing in commodity-related equities involves the risks of the underlying commodities markets, including significant price volatility. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. Support the show