Algeria’s Got The Gas. Does It Have The Guts? (S01E31)

Sunday, March 22, 2026(Above: I discuss the situation in Iran with Algeria’s 24-hour news channel.)When Europe opted to cut off natural gas supplies from Russia following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it turned to Algeria for supply.Now that parts of Qatar’s huge Persian Gulf gas refinery have been knocked out by an Iranian attack, Europe is again hitting up Algeria.Bloomberg News reported that Italy’s Eni is in talks with Algeria’s state-owned Sonatrach to secure supplies.Algeria has reportedly told Italy to just buy the gas on the open market for a higher price, and Italy is resisting. Italy wants a longer term deal that would replace one soon to expire. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is expected to travel to Algiers on March 25 to lobby Algeria’s opaque leadership for a deal on better terms.badlands is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a paid subscriber.After Ukraine and Iran, the energy-gobbling West will also likely more aggressively embrace renewables. There has been some dithering on the energy transition in recent years, as corrupt politicians succumb to the entreaties of automobile makers, oil companies, and other polluting industries.But Algeria could use this moment to extract post-Gaza geopolitical concessions from Europe. The Palestinian cause, for example, is enormously popular in Algeria, which does not recognize Israel. Algeria’s leaders could demand Italy distance itself from Israel as a condition for the cheap gas necessary to fuel Italy’s lifestyle.It’s similar to how China used its rare earth minerals to pressure US President Donald Trump to back down on tariffs. It’s also what Iran is doing with the Strait of Hormuz, allowing countries that pay it a toll or treat it with respect to pass through. The US does the same thing with the dollar, using its control of the world’s main reserve currency to bar dollar transactions it doesn’t approve or cripple countries it doesn’t like.This is becoming a Machiavellian lesson of the emerging multipolar world, and one middle powers like Algeria should heed.If you have a chokepoint—whether it is a currency, a molecule, or a strait between two bodies of water—use it to your advantage, lest others use their strategic throttles against you.badlands is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit borzou.substack.com/subscribe