All Aboard: The Government Train Is Running Again

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer explore the tighter spreads in MBS post GSE purchase announcement, and why some investors are now hesitant to board the “government train.” They dive into where that demand is likely to land across UMBS, Ginnies, and structured products, and why execution, hedging, and net supply constraints matter as much as the headline. The episode also covers rising policy risk around FHA mortgage insurance changes and a reality check on new-home sales, where volume has improved but at the cost of pricing power.