Alphabet is way Cheap | Nasty US economic data

  🎙 Episode Summary: This week, Simon unpacks Alphabet's surprisingly cheap valuation, troubling US economic data, South African CPI figures, Trump's trade mess, and the implications of Aspen's customer fallout. Plus, he previews the Berkshire AGM and upcoming JustOneLap events. 📉 US Economic Data Shock Q1 GDP: Expected +0.2%, came in at –0.3% 😬 Imports surged 40%, skewing GDP down Retail inventories and trade balance signal deeper issues PCI inflation at 1.8% vs. 1.2% expected Recession fears intensify US GDP Q1 2025 🇺🇸 Trump's 100-Day Trade Tangle Trump promised 90 trade deals in 90 days — none signed yet India might come to the table soon Tariff chaos continues, shelves may empty by July Xi Jinping not engaging — trade uncertainty remains high 📊 Alphabet (GOOGL) is Looking CHEAP PE under 20, forward PE ~17 🔥 YouTube: $9B in rev, larger TV share than Netflix Cloud turning profitable; Waymo surging Risks: Antitrust cases, weakened core search, AI competition Analyst sentiment: 13 Strong Buys, 39 Buys, 12 Holds Price targets: Avg $202, High $240 🧠 Search Wars: Google vs. AI Google Search = cluttered & ad-heavy Simon prefers Perplexity & ChatGPT for clean, accurate info Questions around ad revenue in AI-driven search era 💥 Aspen: Trust Broken Lost a major take-or-pay client 🧪 Share down ~33%; questions around facility utilization Replacing lost volume could take 12–18 months Confidence in management fading Aspen | Weekly 29 April 2025 📉 SA CPI Drops to 2.7% Well below target band midpoint of 4.5% Inflation lowest since mid-2020 Will SARB cut rates? Depends on FOMC outcome on 7 May 📚 Budget 3.0 Incoming New budget after VAT hike rejection 21 May – Stay tuned for more policy drama 🏛 Berkshire Hathaway AGM Saturday @ 14:30 SA time 🧓 First meeting without Charlie Munger Warren Buffett expected to address investment outlooks and succession Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order