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Apr 29, 2016 39 min

Amazon's Wild Growth

from Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing Hosted by The Motley Fool

Amazon reports its most profitable quarter in history. Facebook connects. Apple slips. And Comcast makes a big buy. Plus, Thomson Reuters transportation editor Joe White kicks the tires on driverless cars.

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Amazon's Wild Growth

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But we begin with the retailer that's only getting bigger. Amazon's first quarter revenue up 28% as the company posted its most profitable order ever, Matty. This was a really big quarter. I don't even know where to begin, but let's start with that revenue number up 28%.

I look back. That is the fastest year-over-year growth for Amazon since 2012. So over four years and a much, much larger company. They're getting their fastest growth rate year-over-year in a long time.

And if you get into the details, it's even more impressive. Of course, Amazon Web Services is getting all the headlines. Deserately so, you know, revenue there was up 64% operating profits of over 200%. The 600 million.

But there were two things that really stood out to me that aren't getting a lot of press. And that is, you know, if you look at the international side segment for Amazon, sales there were up 24%. And in just recent quarters, Amazon's really reported no growth in that segment. And here they are up 24%.

And then we talk a lot about, you know, Amazon video, all the digital things the company is doing, Amazon Web Services. But if you just look at the meat and potatoes of this business and you look at selling stuff, selling stuff, like electronics in general merchandise, that's how they break it out. Normal everyday stuff, up 32% in North America, 31% internationally. And that right there to me is clearly evidence that Amazon continues to steal massive share from the massive retailers.

They dropped the spending spigot here a bit to juice those earnings. Are they just spending as much as they always do? No, they spending didn't drop off that much at all. So I think they're just getting Amazon Web Services, higher margin, more cash is dropping from there.

But it's so impressive. Amazon Web Services is on pace right now to do about 10 billion in revenue in one year. There are some analysts out there who say, if you just break out this business on its own, it's a $100 billion business. Jeff, it's a $300 billion company.

Is Amazon Web Services really worth one third of this overall company? I get that it's valuable. That just seems a little pricey. Well, it's exciting right now, Chris, because it's growing so rapidly and it's reportedly a high margin business.

But over time, there will be more competition. The growth rate will, of course, slow. The prices will probably come down. So I wouldn't put an excessive amount of waiting to this business.

When I look at Amazon as a whole, I think in the long run, the retail business will be the majority of the value there. Right. And I would say with Amazon Web Services, we don't really know to what extent they're going to get pricing power, Jeff, over time, as you said. Or how sticky that's really going to be if there's so many competitors getting into that space.

But I think it's all to them. It's for Amazon. It's really about prime. So we can, you know, we sign all these really, really high growth rates or high valuations to Amazon, but really it turns out, it comes down to how many primers the members can get, because I think that's where the business is most sticky.

When you look at the stock price, it's not at an all time high, but up about 10% this week. It's closing in on it. How pricey does it look to you right now, Matt? It always looks pricey.

But here, if you look, I mean, just look at the consensus estimates five years out, 2020, less than five years out, they're guiding for the estimates or guiding for almost $30 per share in earnings, whether or not Amazon actually delivers that on the bottom line. But if they think that kind of earnings power is there for Amazon, you apply 30 multiple of that or you're a horrible tool that doesn't look that expensive today. There were a lot of numbers in Facebook's first quarter report and all of them, Jeff, appeared to be up revenue, profits, monthly active users. This was another monster quarter for the social.

So, anyway, Chris, like with Amazon, year over year growth rates accelerated at Facebook to the highest rate since late 2014. So, they had a really strong 2015 as well, but they're now growing more quickly than they were last year. At least in this quarter, margins also went higher. And it still believes that they only have about 12% market share according to e-marketer of the total digital marketing ad spend right now, which is about a nearly $200 billion market alphabet in contrast has about 30% market share.

So 12% market share, and yet they have the most traffic and the most engaged audience. And so they're going to keep getting more and more of that advertising market share. The thing to keep in mind is consumers have really driven everything onto mobile platforms and businesses are well behind. They're still catching up and learning how to monetize all that audience.

You mentioned the share count. Yeah, they also announced a new class of shares, C shares with no voting rights. So, just in case anyone was wondering whether or not this is Mark Zuckerberg's company, it is. Yeah, who votes anyway?

Well, not to be blasé about it. It makes more sense in this case than it may have with Google or under armor in that. Mark and his wife Priscilla want to give away 99% of their shares over their lifetimes. But as a giveaway shares year by year, they want to maintain control of the company.

And so you can look at this positively or negatively or be neutral on it. I kind of fall neutral. You do all through it. Yeah, you could.

So what a universe. All these variations you can take. I view it as neutral as long as the business is growing and I agree with the direction they're taking it. I'll be a shareholder.

And that's where I can get tricky. If it starts to not go well or people start to not like what he's doing, then you can't get an activist investor coming in. You can't vote because he maintains control. So while everything's great, that structure is fine.

Yeah, you vote with your feet if it isn't great in yourself. Well, when public four years ago and today it's the fifth largest public company in the world. So you're saying it's going well. So far it appears to be going well.

Yeah, Chris, I'll add that margins at Facebook are higher than Google's were when it was this size in 2008 and much higher than Google's right now alphabet, I should say. And three million businesses advertised on Facebook, but there are more than 50 million businesses with an active Facebook page. So much more room to grow there. And like Amazon, the PE is in the mid 30s on estimated earnings a year out.

The company's growing much more quickly than that. So the price still looks reasonable. Apple sold 51 million iPhones in the second quarter and that was not nearly enough shares down 11% of the bad company. I mean, was it really the best company ever that had the bad week?

Was it really that bad or is this an old reaction? They're up against tough comparisons last year was so strong, but there is no denying that this is the first time Apple reported declining revenue in 13 years. First quarter with declining iPhone sales since they were introduced in 2007. So there is fear going on about slowing growth, negative growth, China's a big part of that.

We saw Carl Icahn has exited his entire position mostly out of fear of China. I believe although he did make comments that he still thought it was a great business. I probably undervalued. Talked that about that.

But all those things are true. And again, I always say we're not cheerleaders or analysts. So you have to look at all the good and the bad even with these results. They've still put up $11.6 billion of operating cash flow during the quarter and return $10 billion to shareholders by dividends and buybacks have increased once again their buyback program have increased their dividend rate.

So they continue to return so much money to shareholders. It's not only 10 and a half times earnings. Now, if they're a company that has declining revenue into the future, well, I guess that makes sense. But if the iPhone 7 is strong and they continue to be an innovative company, that signals to me that says that's an awfully cheap stock.

One number though, $233 billion. That's cash long-term securities. Now, I know a lot of that's overseas. They're going to pay a hefty tax bill if they bring it back.

But I mean, I could have said this month, and I've been dead wrong. I just can't believe there's any downside to this business given their dominant position, given the balance sheet. But Hank, I've been wrong so far. Yeah, Ron really hit it on the head though when he said the iPhone 7 has to be a hit, of course, and then the 8, the rumored 8, which has many advances supposedly including virtual reality to some extent.

Those both have to do really well. But really, it's the iPhone 7 this fall that has to do well enough because this next quarter, they forecast to be even weaker than the last one with quite a drop in the iPhone sales again. One concern I have is Apple's put out so many different phone models lately, which they kind of have to do. They have such a giant consumer base.

But it does kind of dilute the message of what they're selling. Shares have Comcast up earlier this week after a strong first quarter report, but the stock gave back those gains and more after the company agreed to buy DreamWorks Animation for 3.8 billion. I don't know, Matt. That seems like a first of all, they got the money and it seems like a pretty smart bet for them.

It might be, but it just there's a hint of desperation here with this deal. I think that's what the market's saying. I mean, if you look at 3.8 billion for DreamWorks, that's almost the same that Disney paid, they've paid 4 billion for Marvel each for Marvel and Lucasfilm. Now, I don't know.

Kung Fu Panda versus Star Wars or Avengers. I don't know. I just feel like the intellectual property with Marvel and Lucasfilm much stronger. So I think this is a Comcast's best bet to try to really kind of go after that kind of really bolster their film slate.

To me, it's a bigger signal about the overall entertainment space. I think we're going to see a lot of consolidation there. Lionsgate is another one that's kind of been at the target of other larger companies. And so there's a big grab, I think, for franchises that have timeless qualities.

Kung Fu Panda, Shrek, out of training Dragon. I don't know if there's really one with timeless qualities, but they're certainly valuable properties. Nice week for DreamWorks shareholders, though. Very nice.

Coming up, a reminder that just because you're giving away money doesn't mean people are going to buy your stock. Stay right here. This is Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.

Chris Hill here in studio with Matt, Arkansas, and Jeff Fisher, and Ron Gross. Gilead Sciences increased its quarterly dividend. And that was pretty much the only positive news in its first quarter report. Their revenue was like Jeff.

Their profits were down. How much pressure is there on this company right now? A lot of pressure. Gilead is like the apple of the biotech industry.

It had such a big hit in its hepatitis C drugs just a couple of years ago that drove billions of dollars in new revenue. And now that revenue has flattened out. And this quarter has actually declined a bit just like the iPhone. So investors are wondering how do you grow from here?

You've done so well. What's next? They had more hepatitis C patients this past quarter. And yet revenue from the drug went down because there's more competition and they're giving price concessions discounts.

They also had though a positive note, a really good thing, of course, more government buying of hepatitis C drug veterans affairs, treating veterans. So it's good. 700,000 people approximately have been cured of hepatitis C in this country alone, thanks to Gilead's drugs. And they maintain 90% market share across most markets, but they are cutting prices to maintain that share and that hit the bottom line.

I think the stocks sell off, which was big on Friday, is overdone. Shares look really cheap seven, eight times earnings, especially because management said they stand by their guidance for the full year that they gave less quarter. So they did not lower guidance despite a kind of soft quarter. LinkedIn's first quarter profits came in higher than expected.

The company also raised guidance for the full fiscal year. Normally, that's what we like to see. They really wasn't a big reaction with the stock though. They revised the guidance upwards less than people thought they would based on the strength of this quarter, which indicates perhaps some slowing growth later on in the year.

But they did put up a good quarter. So you got to give it to them. 35% sales growth and a 39% growth in EBITDA. Now the stock has been decimated.

It's down 50% over the last year or so. So they needed to put up some exciting numbers. They stand up, 433 million members at last count. That's good.

Their biggest business unit, the talent solutions division was up 41%. So they did put up a nice quarter and they should be applauded for it. When you look at the stock, we're around 40 times 2016 guidance. And that's if you don't count stock compensation expense as an expense, which I think you should.

Once you factor that in, then valuation really goes out the door and there's really even no way to think about it unless you just believe in the future and believe that they'll continue to put up strong growth. So this was a quarterly report that they need to repeat in three months and then three months after that. Yes, but based on that guidance going forward, I think they signaled to the market that it's not going to be as strong as this quarter. Chipotle reported its first quarterly loss ever as same store sales fell nearly 30%.

I mean, I guess that's to be expected, Matty. We knew it was going to be an ugly quarter. That 30% number, it's bad. It's not as bad as the number might suggest.

If you look at transactions, so essentially people coming in and actually getting food. I mean, that was down 21%. So it's still bad, but obviously much better than 30% number because a lot of people, including me, are using those free coupons to get free burritos and tacos. So we're lining April showing a lot of improvement comp so far this month or down 20%, which is a big improvement from the down 36% we saw in January.

So hopefully that trend continues. The real story here though is if you look at the food and labor costs as a percentage of sales pretty much the highest they've ever been much higher. Obviously with all the new safety procedures they're putting in and training employees to be handled the food differently. The question is, do those margins stick around?

Can they get some of those expenses lowered over time and get back closer to historical levels? That is a big question to me. So you really want to watch Chipotle's margins. I expect this time next year we'll be talking about pretty good comps.

Obviously the comparisons will be a lot easier, traffic will be back, but how profitable is every store now. Going forward. That's a big question. You know what another restaurant company has done to make their stores more profitable all day breakfast?

And I'm wondering if Chipotle needs to look at what McDonald's is doing, which seems in some ways absurd to suggest given that for years people are like, McDonald's should try and be more like Chipotle. I don't know. I look at the success they're having. I was like, why aren't they serving breakfast at Chipotle?

I love a good breakfast burrito like anyone else. The question is, to me, it must be an operational thing. They're just adding that tweet to the menu whether they do it all day or at certain periods in the morning. It's probably something that's going to add a lot of cost and they haven't figured out a smart way to do it.

McDonald's is the company I would point to to have hope for Chipotle again because if McDonald's can turn it around to become a vibrant brand or at least business again, then certainly Chipotle can. I would think. Last question, Matty. Any color from the management regarding the other brands in the Chipotle portfolio in terms of expanding Shop House, Pizzareo, and Cali?

Any plans to speed that up? Very little. They just keep saying these are sort of the aspirational new big franchises for us and growth is slow. We're being very experimental with new markets, but not obviously very nasty still.

You know, since Chipotle has a black eye right now, they could just take down those signs and switch them over to a different store, make them each a pizza place. I'm not a lawyer. That sounds illegal. First quarter profits for Panera Bread.

Up 26% the company also raised guidance. This is kind of like LinkedIn. It's a good quarter. You know, I like it.

But yet so different. Well, just in terms of like, you know, the basic results, the raising of God. I like hearing iPhones that have seed drugs. Which I did.

And yet no love for the stock. What's going on? No, well, the stock has had a lot of love though, Chris lately in the past year or so. It's done pretty well in the past five years too.

The past three years have been a little rocky because in 2014, you know, they were going through some troubles and they announced Panera 2.0 Almost exactly two years ago to the day. The Mosh Pit comment from CEO Masha. Exactly. That's one we'll be talking about indefinitely, I think.

So 2.0 to improve the throughput of customers, to go digital, to amp up their catering services and their dining options. And it's really working. So same store sales were up strongly. Revenues growing again.

Earnings for share group. Strong double digits. And they believe they're setting up a business that will be able to deliver these higher than average earnings for share growth numbers for a long time to come. They've only turned about 200 or I'm sorry, 400 of their 900 or so locations into Panera 2.0 so far.

So plenty of room to keep improving. I don't know, Matty. Based on the ones that we've seen close to our office, they look pretty promising. And totally the experience of Panera now at these stores is much better than it has been the past.

It's easy, it's seamless. Sorry, the rapid pickup is just priceless. It's great. Let's bring in our man, Steve Brodoming from the other side of the glass.

Steve, it's no olive garden, of course. Have you tried out the Panera 2.0 across the street from our office? I did not realize that eating was a digital experience, but now it is for me. I'm embracing it.

But the ordering process, the fact that you can just order on your laptop, walk over, pick it up, not have to interact with them? I have to tell you, I still go over there and I just pay with the credit card. I do. It's just a lot.

It's just go across the street that people online, I just, I'm just there and I buy. You like the human touch. I do. You're missing out on, do you want a cookie?

Would you like a beverage? True. You know what? Sometimes Steve wants a cookie and he deserves it.

I feel like I'm ripping the place off when I just walk in there, pick up my bag of food and walk out. I have to look around and make sure it's still clean. I feel great when I do that. I don't know.

All right guys, we'll see you later in the show. Up next, we're heading to the Motor City to talk to Joe White. This is Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.

I'm Chris Hill, a lot going on in the automotive industry. I'm here to help us make sense of it all as Joe White, transportation editor for Thompson Reuters. He joins me now from Detroit. Joe, thanks for being here.

Last time we talked, it was in the wake of the Volkswagen emission scandal and I wanted to bring listeners up to speed on that. At the time, they had set aside around $7 billion to deal with the damages. They have now up to that to around $17 billion. In the annual report, Volkswagen said it could face further significant financial liabilities and that they may need to sell some assets.

This is the biggest automaker in the world. In concrete terms, what do you think that looks like if they start selling assets? Well, that's what's not clear. They did say that.

Then again, they said they kind of lose a whole bunch of things that aren't going to be for sale. They're going to be very severe. They're brands. It could be that they have other assets to sell, be it real estate or supposedly commercial programs that they have on Skania.

It's just not clear what they're going to do. But $18 billion, roughly, is what they had to set aside. It's not all clear that that's the end of it. They have to keep their options open.

This is going to be a huge financial drag, even for companies, biggest folks like it. They're going to have to deal with this. Not just one time, but probably many times because they have problems elsewhere, including specifically in Europe. They have millions of cars that didn't comply with the local regulations there and they're going to have to deal with that problem.

I don't know to what extent if any of the automakers in Detroit are engaging in Schadenfreude. The people that you talk to, are they quietly gleeful about this? Or are they just looking to know what is there? But for the grace of God go I.

A little bit more of the latter, but for the grace of God go I mean, first of all, most close-by-as rivals have said that they didn't engage in this kind of behavior. But then again, in the last few days, particularly in Europe, authorities over there have said, well, we haven't a number of companies have vehicles that when you test them in the field emit much more than allowed under our rules and much more than they admitted when they were up on the test bench. Daimler, former state's Denz, has said that the Justice Department in the United States is looking into whether it's vehicles don't comply with US laws, it's diesel vehicles. So to the extent that, sure, I think there's some shot in Detroit, but really what I think the wiser response to those second problem is there, but for the grace of God go we.

And what's the future? Because if regulators are no longer going to let car companies have a pass on these emissions standards, but instead more rigorously enforce the emissions standards, that means everybody's going to have to tighten up and tighten up in this sheer cost money. So we'll just have to see how that plays out and how the companies respond to that. And whether certain kinds of vehicles such as diesel vehicles, diesel SUVs and diesel cars can survive in the United States.

All right, let's move away from emissions and that'll take us to Tesla Motors, which recently unveiled the Model 3. What's been the reaction in Detroit to Tesla's attempt to move downstream to a less expensive vehicle? Well, first of all, it's not going to be the Model 3 is not going to be an inexpensive vehicle. And Tesla has made that fairly clear.

This is a vehicle that's likely starting price around $35,000. It's likely to sell for more like $48,000 to maybe even $50,000. That makes it a competitor to something like a BMW 3 series or an Audi A4 or Cadillac ATS or CTS. That said, the enthusiasm that has been shown for the Model 3, the hundreds of thousands, I think we're up to close to $400,000 now, reservations, according to Tesla have been taken for the Model 3.

That's a lot of enthusiasm. And I think that all the Detroit companies are going to need to look at their electric vehicle strategies and ask the question, is that what we ought to be doing as well, bringing out a vehicle that can go 200 plus miles on a charge, which the Chevrolet Bolt, for instance, is supposed to be able to do, but which also looks like a near luxury or an entry-level luxury car, which the Bolt does not. The Bolt looks like a very practical kind of city car. I think Elon Musk has proven beyond reasonable doubt that if you want to sell an electric car, you need to make the thing look hot.

And offering practicals or pod cars and city cars like the BMW i3 doesn't do it. You just wrote something recently entitled how Google is shaping the rules of the driverless road. And we've talked before about Google's technology, but it sounds like they're doing a decent amount of good old-fashioned political lobbying as well. Well, yes, we did do that.

We had a big report by several of my colleagues on that. What's interesting is that earlier this week, Google and several other companies announced that they are forming a lobbying group to advocate for several standards, as opposed to state-by-state standards, to govern autonomous cars. So it's interesting to see Google and other companies really start to step up the pace, not just the technology development, but trying to set the rules of the road. And you have to have rules so you can design the cars and design the software and assist them and know what you have to do.

So it seems to be pretty clear that the car company is Ford, Daimler, Audi, Volkswagen, other companies, General Motors are all moving into a phase where the questions aren't, can we do this? The questions are, what standards do we have to meet in order to market services or market vehicles that depend on cars that can drive themselves? And that's what we're in the world now. And what Google's been doing is just kind of brings that very much to light.

What should we be looking for in terms of significant events or almost markers of a sort to know that autonomous cars are about to go mainstream? Is it legislation from the federal government? Is it that they start showing up on a lot? Well, I think the four you see fully autonomous cars being sold on lots, my guess is the guess that I've formed from talking to people about the possibilities.

And the first thing is the government, the federal government for sure and state governments, perhaps as well, are going to have to come up with a clear set of rules to govern a lot of different variables, including what kinds of redundant or fail-safe systems that the cars need to have. For instance, Google has suggested clearly that if there was their preferences of autonomous cars, we'd have no steering wheel. Well, is that going to be OK or not? I think Google would like to know the answer.

Who gets sued if an autonomous car hits something? I think there's going to be a desire by the industry to have a clear guidelines for the answer to that question. Once that's in place, and that might take a little while, but I think it'll work on that as underway, then the question will be, do autonomous vehicles first appear not as the car that you go down and buy on the live? But as a service that you access when you go to say Mountain View, California or Austin, Texas, or Ann Arbor, Michigan, you can, and there's a lot of discussion around offering fleets of autonomous cars within kind of defined areas that can be easily mapped and basically offered as a service for placing say a taxi cab.

And if I had the bed, 20 bucks, I would go with that bed. We'll see them that way first as a fleet that the car companies can control and monitor and watch. And then who knows where it goes from there? Knowing what you know about autonomous cars, how safe would you feel getting in one right now?

It's funny. I was thinking about that just yesterday because I had to, I took a very, very long drive from Detroit to New York City. And I've done that a lot. And I thought to myself, because you know, a lot of time to think, I thought to myself, how comfortable would I be going 70, 75 miles an hour on a freeway in a car with my hands off the wheel?

Would I be comfortable enough to sleep? Would I be comfortable enough to take my eyes off the road for a long period of time? Would that be disorienting to me? Would I get motion sickness or whatever?

Because I'm not, I'm just disconnected from the vehicle and yet traveling very rapidly, you know, over open road. And I've got to tell you, I'm not sure, I couldn't answer that question. I'm not sure how ready I am for that experience. I'm not sure how ready I am just physically and emotionally for that experience of zipping along a five way without actually being in control.

I think it's going to take a little more work than maybe some people think. You touched on the car sharing industry and I want to ask you about that because you've got to zip car, certainly you've got taxi cab, you've got Uber and now BMW launching a car sharing service in Seattle. How serious is BMW about this? I'm a car company.

Are serious about it and they have a good reason to be serious about it. Because as you look at big big cities in San Francisco, certainly qualifies as one Beijing and Shanghai absolutely would qualify. The possibility that either by consumers want it or because government regulators demand it, that access to center cities in personal cars will be limited is high. There's a high possibility of that.

I mean, it's already happening to European cities and elsewhere. So if you're going to, if you're going to participate in the business of keeping people rides and then moving on to the next ride, you have to start now. In fact, you can probably argue that car companies are late because obviously Uber and Lister are already there. But the chance that giving rides and offering rides, sharing will be a very big business, maybe even bigger than someday than selling cars in traditional transactions is pretty high.

And I think the car companies are realizing they need to get into this game and you need to have to be able to understand the business and see how they fit in. All right, last question and I'll let you go. You mentioned driving from Detroit to New York City. What are you driving these days?

I'm driving a 2014 Ford Escape. Nothing very exotic. It's suited my needs. And I'll tell you, I mean, just quickly I'll say that there's a reason why in the United States, for utility vehicles, particularly compact sport, utility vehicles like that one are so popular.

They're kind of Swiss army knives. You know, if you go to Home Depot, you carry stuff around, you go camping the way we do sometimes. Boy, it's kind of nice having that space, but you don't need it in a giant package. And a compact SUV will basically do the job for a lot of people.

And there's a reason why that segment is booming in sales. And there you have it. They're super practical and flexible and be just about every need. He's the transportation editor for Thomson Reuters.

You can read him online. Follow him on Twitter. Joe White. Thank you so much for being here.

Coming up next, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. This is Motley Fool Money. As always, people on the program may have interested in the stocks they talk about in the Motley Fool, making formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy yourself stocks based solely on what you hear.

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Chris Hill, joined in studio once again by Matt Arguessinger, Jeff Fisher, and Ron Gross. We get a little bit of time before we get to the stocks on our radar. So let's hit one more earning story.

Coaches in the middle of a turnaround. Looks like it's going pretty well, Rod. Third quarter report showed profit growth for the first time in three years. Are you telling me coach had sales increase of 13% excluding currency?

How about that? Right, turnaround continues. Redivating stores improving the brand, refreshing designs, North America, which has been a disaster, seems to have stabilized, international continues to be the bright spot. EPS earnings per share of 25% includes the Stuart-White's acquisition, which helps.

But still, things definitely seem to be turning. They're going to try to cut another $65 to $80 million of costs to get their operating margins up to 20%, currently stand at 13%. So that's a pretty lofty goal. If I was thinking about this stock, I'm not sure I'd give them credit for that entire move.

But you'll probably will see some widening margins. 12 times even dollar right now. If you believe the turnaround continues, probably not a terrible entry point. For me, I would continue to watch.

Any sense of how they're going to cut those costs? Is it closing stores, cutting jobs? It's staffing to a large extent. Good turnaround, but tough or much easier comparisons, yes.

Absolutely. So that'll help to put a link next year too. So if your company's not doing well, just remember, it's always next year. So we have a great line.

Bredos and handbags, another option comparison. A couple of housekeeping notes for we get to the stocks on our radar. I'd like to welcome a brand new station. Canoes, 107.3 FM in Reno, Nevada.

There's a first station in Nevada. Oh, no kidding. Nice. That's bigger than NFL team.

Maybe next year. There you go. All more reason to hit the road. I'm going to go to the past episodes of Motley Fool Money or any of our shows here at the Motley Fool.

Check out our brand spanking new podcast center. Go to podcast.fool.com. Any of our podcasts, including a recent episode of Motley Fool Answers, our weekly, one of our weekly podcasts hosted by Allison Southwick and Robert Brokamp, the guest star of that episode, one Steve Brido. Steve, what the hell?

I mean, for us, you're the man behind the glass, but on a recent episode of Motley Fool Answers, you're here in the studio. How was it? It was weird. I don't know how you guys do it.

It's so quiet in there and peaceful and calm and there's nothing blinking. It's great. All right, let's get to the stocks on our radar and Steve will hit you with a question. What do you think about it?

All right, Steve, I got Amco Pittsburgh, ticker symbol AP, a little tiny company, 228 million market cap. They make forged hard into steel rolls. I know you know what that is. So let me explain.

They're large rolling pins that are used to form steel into different shapes. The stock's up 83% this year. We hold it in the deep value portfolio, but we've actually had it on hold because the steel business is a mess right now. So the new CEO is diversifying through acquisition, cutting costs, trying to turn this business.

If he continues to do it successfully, stocks is cheap from here, but it's by no means a guarantee. That's why we've had it on hold. I'm taking another look to see if we want to increase our position after the nice turnaround so far. Steve, question about Amco Pittsburgh?

How would an investor like me find a company, like even just find this company? Where would I go to even learn about this? Is it a search? Am I searching for numbers?

You would probably be searching for small, we call them microcap companies, companies under 500 million, plenty of different ways to search for companies, screening tools out there. And these are often companies that are just under, under, under, followed, unloved, and sometimes if you're careful, you can find a bargain. Or you could subscribe to a not full service. Oh, there we go.

Matt Arguesser, what are you looking at? Going with a company that's on our watch list in a million dollar portfolio, it's called Illumina ticker I L M N leads the market for genomic sequencing machines, which are vital for biotech companies, cancer research, large hospitals. It's got a very compelling razor razor blade business model. Stocks down about 40% from its high.

It really is a dominant in its markets and it's coming very closely. I think it's a great way to play biotechs without actually investing in biotechs. Steve, question about Illumina? Well, genomic sequencing cure cancer in the next 50 years.

In the next 50, absolutely will. I think we can actually, I think that could happen in 10 years, the way the technology is improving. Wow. And Jeff Fisher, what are you looking at?

Well, I was going to go with Cabela's because Bass, it appears that Bass Pro Shops is trying to buy them out and I keep trying to talk about companies that are possibly being acquired here. But I just got a text from my brother that my sister-in-law is in labor. So I'm new in about face in honor of that. And I'll go with Carter's.

Ticker's CRI, Carter's of course makes clothing apparel for babies and young children in the US. It's US based only. And it's been a great stock the past five years and longer. It's a mouthful recommendation as well.

What size company is that? Sorry, Steve. It's a $5 billion market value. Wow.

Steve, question about Carter's? Does the always on sale thing, I've bought stuff like Carter's for my kids. It seems like there's always just great sale going on. Does that help them hurt them?

It appears to be helping. You're shopping there. I mean, it's a point. I am definitely shopping there because of the sales.

I mean, isn't everything always on sale now everywhere? A coupon or a discount or anything. Yeah, unless we're talking about Tiffany's which really has just made a lot of hay out of date. Nope, we're never going down market.

I find it interesting that Carter is a standalone company. To me, it sounds like a brand that would be part of a larger like a super bread. Yeah, like a principal. It's old steel.

That could make sense around the Carter's in Oscash. Both could brands that could be rolled into some larger apparel company. You heard it here first. There you go.

Steve, three very different businesses. Illumina, Carter's, Amco, Pittsburgh, any one of those three you feel like adding to your watch list? I'd like to look at Lumina. That sounds very interesting to me.

There you go Steve. Oh, really? All the money. I was gonna say all the money you're spending at Carter's.

are growing cancer cancer or you can't answer are a lot of those not are just a gesture guys thanks so much for being here thanks for us thank you to joe white from tumps and roiters are guests this week go podcast dot full dot com to check out past episodes of all money are engineers steve right now our producer is mac reer i'm first up listening we'll see you next week

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