Analysis: The New Trump-Powell Accord

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit vblgoldfix.substack.comHousekeeping: Good Morning. “The Gold reset is a process, not an event”Today* Discussion: The Trump-Powell Accord* Premium: Gold Exotic Option Primer— The Casino is Open. Analysis: The Trump-Powell Accord* Trump to Powell: Lower rates and inflation wont be a problem, I’ll get oil prices lower* Trump to OPEC: Lower oil prices and I’ll weaken the dollar helping your The Bottom Line is: Tariffs, and tax cuts are the sizzle here. Lower energy and a weaker dollar are the steak. Just as Bessent is advising: and he needs Powell on board to do this. From January 24ths Trump is Horse-Trading AgainPowell’s Press Conference Pushback The Fed and the White House are now on the same page.Powell’s responses on three major topics indicate this shift:* Tariffs and Inflation* Recession Risk* Inflation Expectations and Market StabilityThe Trump-Powell Accord and What This Means for Trump’s Economic StrategyFull Analysis at bottom…Featured:* Noon Today: Gold Exotic Option Primer— The Casino is Open. Markets Recap:Wall Street ended higher, while Treasury yields fell as the Federal Reserve kept benchmark interest rate unchanged. The dollar pared gains against the euro. Oil prices edged up on U.S. fuel demand. Gold continued its rally, hovering near all-time highs.Market News: Fed keeps policy rate outlook intact amid projected growth slowdown, temporary inflation jump The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, as expected, but U.S. central bank policymakers indicated they still anticipate reducing borrowing costs by half a percentage point by the end of this year in the context of slowing economic growth and, eventually, a downturn in inflation. Taking stock of the Trump administration's rollout of tariffs, Fed officials actually marked up their outlook for inflation this year, with their preferred measure of price increases expected to end the year at 2.7% versus the 2.5% pace anticipated in December. But they also marked down the outlook for economic growth for this year from 2.1% to 1.7%, with slightly higher unemployment by the end of this year. Policymakers said risks had increased, with a near unanimous sentiment in saying the outlook for the year was muddled. The Fed also said it will slow the ongoing drawdown of its balance sheet, known as quantitative tightening.Geopolitics/ Politics: H/t Newsquawk for GeopolData on Deck: FOMC* MONDAY, MARCH 17 U.S. retail sales* TUESDAY, MARCH 18 Housing starts* WEDNESDAY, MARCH 19 FOMC interest-rate decision* THURSDAY, MARCH 20 Existing home sales* FRIDAY, MARCH 21 None scheduled Summary and Final Market CheckPremium: